Geopolitics

Prigozhin’s Business as Usual: Wagner Backs Coup in Niger

Just four months after US Secretary of State Blinken visited Niger in March 2023, praising its democratic values, Wagner has declared its support for the 27 July coup

The coup occurred in Niger just a day after Prigozhin was pictured meeting with African leaders in St. Petersburg. Among the African nations that did send official delegations to the summit in St. Petersburg were Mali and the Central African Republic as well as the Vice President of Niger.

Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, who remains active despite leading a failed mutiny against the Russian army’s top brass last month, has hailed Niger’s military coup as good news and offered his fighters’ services to bring order.

A voice message on Telegram app channels associated with Wagner, which they said was Prigozhin, did not claim involvement in the coup but described it as a moment of long-overdue liberation from Western colonisers and made what looked like a pitch for his fighters to help keep order. — AlJazeera

It seems that Russia was a bit too big a bite for Putin to swallow, so he’s accelerating his already extensive business growth in Africa with Putin’s support.

Praised by Prigozhin, the Niger military takeover on 27 July 2023 was headed by General Abdourahmane (‘Omar’) Tchiani who has declared himself leader of the former French colony which became a democracy in 1960.

President Mohamed Bazoum is under house-arrest, imprisoned by his own presidential guard. He won the presidential election held in December 2020 and has a long history of political involvement having held several ministerial positions, including Minister of Foreign Affairs. His election marked a significant moment in Niger’s political history.

He had been considered a key ally by Western nations in the fight against Islamist militants in the region.

France has said that it does not recognise any of the coup’s leaders and will only recognise Mr Bazoum as head of state.

“We reiterate in the strongest terms the international community’s clear demand for the immediate restoration of constitutional order and democratically elected civilian power,” a statement from the French foreign ministry read.

The coup has also been roundly condemned by international bodies including the African Union, West African regional bloc (Ecowas), the EU and the UN. — BBC

France, as the former colonial power in Niger, is particularly concerned.

Since his election Bazoum has spoken out against Wagner involvement in neighbouring Mali and the Central African Republic.

Wagner involvement in Africa

Wagner offers a range of services . In Mali, in the Central African Republic, it protects the power in place, offers military training, even offering legal advice to rewrite the mining code or the Constitution.

In return, the group pays itself from local resources, including gold mines and other minerals. In Sudan, Wagner flourishes in the illegal gold business and is closely linked to the Rapid Support Forces (FRS) of Mohammed Hamdane Daglo.

In Libya, Wagner supports General Khalifa Haftar, a strongman in the east of the country who controls the Libyan National Army, with a few hundred mercenaries deployed to ensure the security of military bases and oil-related infrastructure.

US Involvement in Niger

Since 2012, U.S. taxpayers have spent more than $500 million there, making it one of the largest security assistance programs in sub-Saharan Africa.

U.S. troops train, advise, and assist their Nigerien counterparts and have fought and even died there in an Islamic State ambush near the village of Tongo Tongo in 2017. Over the last decade, the number of U.S. military personnel deployed to Niger has jumped from just 100 to 1,016. Niger has also seen a proliferation of U.S. outposts. — TheIntercept

Where is Niger?

The Republic of Niger is a landlocked country situated in West Africa. It is bordered by Algeria to the north, Libya to the northeast, Chad to the east, Nigeria and Benin to the south, Burkina Faso, and Mali to the west.

Covering an expansive area of approximately 1.27 million square kilometers, Niger is one of the largest countries in Africa, but its population density remains relatively low.

Niger has a rich history dating back to ancient times, with evidence of human settlements in the region dating as far back as 10,000 BC. The land that is now Niger was once part of various powerful empires, including the Songhai Empire, the Mali Empire, and the Kanem-Bornu Empire. Later, it fell under French colonial rule in the late 19th century and gained independence on August 3, 1960.

The country’s geography is primarily vast expanses of desert and semi-desert terrain known as the Sahel. It is defined in Wikipedia as the ecoclimatic and biogeographic realm of transition between the Sahara to the north and the Sudanian savanna to the south. The Sahara Desert dominates the northern region, making it one of the hottest and driest places on Earth.

The country is susceptible to periodic droughts, which can lead to humanitarian crises and hinder economic development.

Niger’s population is ethnically diverse, with various groups such as the Hausa, Zarma, Tuareg, Fulani, and Kanuri, among others. French is the official language, but many indigenous languages are spoken throughout the country. Islam is the predominant religion, practiced by over 90% of the population.

Human development indicators in Niger are among the lowest in the world. The country faces significant challenges in areas like education, healthcare, and gender equality. Access to quality education and healthcare facilities remains limited, particularly in rural areas. Child marriage and gender-based violence are persistent issues that hinder women’s empowerment and socio-economic development.

Economy

Economically, Niger faces numerous challenges. The nation is heavily reliant on agriculture, which is mostly rain-fed and susceptible to climate fluctuations.

Uranium mining is also a crucial sector, as Niger possesses significant uranium deposits, making it seventh in the list of the world’s top producers. In 2022 its output of yellowcake (partially refined uranium ore) was about 2,000 tonnes (compare with Russia 2,500 tonnes and Kazakhstan 24,000 tonnes).

The mismatch between Niger’s vast mineral wealth and low levels of human development is referred to as the ‘resource curse’. The revenues from exploiting natural resources such as uranium and gold have not translated into widespread prosperity because issues like corruption, mismanagement, and the fluctuations of global commodity prices. Niger ranks #123 out of 202 countries in the World Corruption Index. In context, that’s 15 places above Russia.

Politics

Since gaining independence from France in 1960, Niger has experienced several changes in its political landscape. Early years after independence saw a series of military coups that led to a cycle of military rule.

In 1991, following a long period of military dictatorship, Niger transitioned to multi-party democracy. This marked a significant turning point in the country’s political history, as it allowed for greater political pluralism and civil liberties.

Since then, Niger has held several elections, although the democratic process has sometimes faced challenges, including accusations of electoral irregularities and political tensions.

Military

The Military Times reports that Niger has been a base of international military operations for years as Islamic extremists have greatly expanded their reach in the Sahel. Those include Boko Haram in neighboring Nigeria and Chad, but the more immediate threat comes from growing activity in Niger’s border areas with Mali and Burkina Faso from the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara and the al-Qaida affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, known as JNIM.

More than 1,000 U.S. service personnel are in Niger, which until Wednesday’s coup attempt by mutinous soldiers had avoided the military takeovers that destabilized West African neighbors in recent years.

The country had been seen as the last major partner standing against extremism in a Francophone region where anti-French sentiment had opened the way for the Russian private military group Wagner. — MilitaryTimes

Implications

If the military is able to consolidate its power in Niger then the US aid will be withdrawn, its 1,000 or so military ‘advisers’ will leave. The vacuum will be filled by Wagner forces and the country will be raped.

It seems clear to me that Prigozhin has been bought-off by Putin, with Africa as his reward for pulling out of the Wagner mutiny of the 24 June 2023.

And I’m left wondering what other mischief he and Putin have planned for Africa.

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