Previewing and Predicting the 73rd Primetime Emmy Awards
On Sunday, September 19th, the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (ATAS) will announce their picks for the best that television networks and streaming services had to offer in the 2020–2021 season. Predicting the Emmys is largely a thankless and impossible task due to the ever-increasing amount of high quality offerings available across a number of ever-diversifying platforms. Nevertheless, prior winners, the nomination announcement in July, other award shows from earlier in the year, and the predictions of various critics and industry insiders give us some big clues about who is likely to prevail in the top categories. One thing that is certain about this year’s winners is that there will be no repeats from last year in the Comedy or Drama categories, given that last year’s winners Schitt’s Creek, Succession, Euphoria, Ozark, and The Morning Show are ineligible this year.
Last year, the 72nd Primetime Emmy Award ceremony became the first major awards show of the pandemic era to go on and it did so largely successfully despite the immense challenges of a largely virtually award ceremony. (Check out my recap of last year’s Jimmy Kimmel-hosted ceremony here). This year’s ceremony, which will air live on CBS and stream live on Paramount+, will be held outdoors at the L.A. Live complex in Downtown Los Angeles. This venue worked well for the rather elegant 64th Grammy Awards earlier this year, so I have high hopes for the production values. The festivities will be hosted by Cedric the Entertainer, the comedian and actor who currently stars on the CBS sitcom The Neighborhood (which has not received a single Emmy nomination for any of its first three seasons). I am not overly familiar with Cedric’s work, so I don’t have any strong feelings about his selection one way or the other.
The Emmys have an extraordinary amount of categories, which is unsurprising given the sheer amount and variety of content that exists on television and streaming. The 27 main awards will be handed out on Sunday night’s ceremony following the Creative Arts Emmy Awards ceremonies held last weekend, during which 92 (!!) awards were handed out. Although success in the less prominent, mostly technical categories doesn’t always translate to success in the main categories, the Creative Arts Emmy winners potentially hold some additional information about where voters’ passions lie. For example, the astonishing 9 wins doled out to Netflix’s period chess drama The Queen’s Gambit suggest that it is going to be very challenging to beat in the major categories despite stiff competition from brilliant (and, ultimately, better) limited series. Other shows that did well at the Creative Arts Emmys and are up for major awards on Sunday include Disney+’s The Mandalorian (7 wins), NBC’s Saturday Night Live (7 wins), Netflix’s The Crown (4 wins), VH1’s RuPaul’s Drug Race (4 wins), AppleTV’s Ted Lasso (3 wins), Disney+’s WandaVision (3 wins), and Fx’s Pose (3 wins). The Creative Arts Emmys also contained a few very questionable high-profile wins like Claire Foy picking up the Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series Emmy for reprising her role as Queen Elizabeth II on The Crown during a cameo that was mostly a voiceover and the spectacularly cheesy holiday musical Dolly Parton’s Christmas on the Square triumphing for Outstanding Made-For-Television Movie. These wins suggest that we might get some out-of-left-field (and largely undeserving) winners at the main ceremony.
Now, without further ado, here are my predictions in all 27 major categories.
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WINNER PREDICTIONS — DRAMA
Outstanding Drama Series: In at least the last half century, no series has won the top drama award without a single acting nomination, so we can safely rule out Amazon’s superhero drama The Boys. NBC’s This is Us impressively returned to the race this year after missing out for its third season, but if it couldn’t win during its much buzzier first two seasons, it seems unlikely to win now. HBO’s Lovecraft Country surprised with 18 nominations (and already won a trophy for Courtney B. Vance’s guest appearance at the Creative Arts Emmys), but it aired a long time ago, is long-canceled, and is certainly not traditional Emmy fare. Netflix’s Bridgerton was certainly a pop culture phenomenon, but it was so profoundly campy and dramatically inert that it is hard for me to fathom Emmy voters giving it the most prestigious award. Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale had an absolutely brilliant fourth season (check out my review of it here) and had its best showing ever at the nominations, but the fact that it has much less buzz than it did in its early seasons and the fact that it went home completely empty-handed at the Creative Arts Emmys don’t bode well. That leaves three series. Disney+’s The Mandalorian had a critically acclaimed second season and already won 7 Emmys last weekend, Fx’s Pose had its best showing ever at the Emmys for its acclaimed third and final season, and Netflix’s The Crown had its most acclaimed and buzzy season yet with its fourth, which expertly introduced icons Princess Diana and Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. Any of the three could take it, but I strongly suspect Emmy voters will finally give The Crown the top prize after three prior losses in the category. Predicted Winner: The Crown Most Likely to Upset: The Mandalorian
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series: Uzo Aduba is an undeniable Emmy favorite given her three prior trophies (two for Netflix’s prison dramedy Orange is the New Black and one last year for Fx’s limited series Mrs. America), but the lack of other nominations for her show (HBO’s revival of In Treatment) doesn’t bode well. Also unlikely is Jurnee Smollett who did excellent work in HBO’s Lovecraft Country, but often had difficulty standing out among the remarkable ensemble. Elisabeth Moss should be picking up her second trophy for her revelatory and profoundly moving work on The Handmaid’s Tale, but I suspect she will come in fourth behind three buzzier competitors. Each of them has a strong argument in their favor. Emma Corrin is the heavy favorite for her searing work as Princess Diana on The Crown, which has already given her a Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice Award. As her mother-in-law, beloved Oscar winner Olivia Colman could follow in the footsteps of her predecessor Claire Foy, who also won the Emmy for her second and final turn as Queen Elizabeth II. And then there’s Mj Rodriguez, who made history as the first transgender woman nominated in a major acting category for her profoundly understated and poignant work on Pose. Any of the three could win, but my money is on Corrin with Colman as a runner-up (I would be ecstatic to see Rodriguez win but I have trouble believing the Academy won’t go gaga for these regal star turns in The Crown). Predicted Winner: Emma Corrin, The Crown Most Likely to Upset: Olivia Colman, The Crown
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series: A much weaker category than its female counterpart, there are nevertheless some strong contenders here. The least likely to win is Matthew Rhys (a previous winner in this category for The Americans) as his HBO Perry Mason reboot was largely overlooked by the Emmys. Jonathan Majors did wonderful work on Lovecraft Country and Sterling K. Brown continues to shine on This is Us (for which he has already won in this category), but I don’t think either of the shows have the buzz to win a top award this year. Bridgerton certainly has buzz and smoldering star Rege-Jean Page is undoubtedly a star in the making, but I have trouble envisioning the Academy giving a top trophy to the camp-fest that is Bridgerton. That leaves a showdown between Josh O’Connor’s spot-on, affecting work as Prince Charles on The Crown and Billy Porter’s profoundly impactful work as a black gay man dying of AIDS on Pose. Porter may have already won this category once, but I suspect he will do it again for his astonishing work on the show’s final season. Predicted Winner: Billy Porter, Pose Most Likely to Upset: Josh O’Connor, The Crown
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: Considering that this category includes four nominees from The Handmaid’s Tale (Madeline Brewer, Ann Dowd, Yvonne Strahovski, and Samira Wiley) and three from The Crown (Gillian Anderson, Helena Bonham Carter, Emerald Fennell), one might suspect that the final nominee — Lovecraft Country’s Aunjanue Ellis — might benefit from vote-splitting among voters who are fans of the other shows. However, despite doing very strong work, she gave the least substantive of the nominated performances from the series (and her spot should have gone to her brilliant costar Wunmi Mosaku). Although each of the four Handmaids actresses is brilliant and has an Emmy-worthy submission, I suspect this will go to one of The Crown ladies. And it’s hard to imagine it going to anyone other than Gillian Anderson (a previous Emmy winner for The X-Files), whose scenery chewing but spot-on performance as Margaret Thatcher has already won a bevy of awards, including the Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and Screen Actors Guild awards. Predicted Winner: Gillian Anderson, The Crown Most Likely to Upset: Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series: If Michael K. Williams (The Wire, The Night Of, Boardwalk Empire) finally wins his first Emmy for his wrenching work as a gay black man facing a host of demons in the Jim Crow South on Lovecraft Country (as many, including me, predict that he will), it will be because of his brilliant performance not due to sympathy over his devastating death 11 days ago. (Voting was already done at that point.) The strongest possibilities for an upset are Bradley Whitford, a previous winner in this category for The West Wing and in the Guest Actor category for this nominated role on The Handmaids Tale, and Tobias Menzies, who could ride a wave of love for The Crown despite the fact that the character of Prince Phillip had very little to do in the fourth season. The other nominees — Perry Mason’s John Lithgow, The Mandalorian’s Giancarlo Esposito, This is Us’s Chris Sullivan, and The Handmaid’s Tale’s Max Minghella and O-T Fangbele — all feel like long shots at best to me. Predicted Winner: Michael K. Williams, Lovecraft Country Most Likely to Upset: Bradley Whitford, The Handmaid’s Tale
Outstanding Writing in a Drama Series: This race seems likely to be a showdown between the emotional, epic season four finale of The Crown and the equally emotional, epic series finale of Pose. Both would make very deserving winners, but I suspect it will go to The Crown given that Peter Morgan has surprisingly never won for his writing of every single episode of the series before. As for the other contenders, The Handmaid’s Tale seems past its Emmy prime and The Mandalorian, Lovecraft Country, and The Boys don’t have quite the acclaim for their writing that is required for genre fare to break through here. Predicted Winner: “War,” The Crown Most Likely to Upset: “Series Finale,” Pose
Outstanding Directing in a Drama Series: We can immediately count out the frothy Bridgerton. The other five each have a legitimate shot, with Pose and The Handmaid’s Tale’s brilliantly staged finales, The Mandalorian’s epic season premiere, and two classic episodes of The Crown all in contention. I suspect that The Crown’s finale will take both writing and directing, but don’t be surprised if they throw The Mandalorian a bone here given its massive Emmy showing and its admittedly impressive direction. Predicted Winner: “War,” The Crown Most Likely to Upset: “The Marshal,” The Mandalorian
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WINNER PREDICTIONS — COMEDY
Outstanding Comedy Series: You would have to go all the way back to The Monkees sin in this category in 1967 to find a series that won this award without a single acting nomination. Thus, it seems safe to say that Hulu’s Pen15 nor Netflix’s Emily in Paris and Cobra Kai are going to take this award. ABC’s Black-ish impressively returned to the race for its 4th nomination here for its 7th season. It seems unlikely that it will win at this point if it couldn’t win when it was at its buzziest and most popular. Equally unlikely is Netflix’s The Kominsky Method. The Michael Douglas-led comedy aired its final batch of six heartbreaking episodes to little fanfare in May. Despite its big buzz and strong showing in the nominations, I have trouble imagining that Emmy voters will award HBOMax’s The Flight Attendant here given that it is far more dramatic than comic and its first season was decidedly uneven. That leads to a showdown between HBO’s Hacks and AppleTV’s Ted Lasso. The former has more critical acclaim and in my opinion is a better show, but the latter has the buzz, the passionate support, a sterling track record at awards shows since its debut, and is likely on voters’ minds as its currently airing its second season. I would be shocked if it lost. Predicted Winner: Ted Lasso Most Likely to Upset: Hacks
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series: Jean Smart is a shoo-in for to win her fourth Emmy (she has one in Supporting Actress in a Comedy for Samantha Who? and two in Guest Actress in a Comedy for Frasier). Las Vegas comedy legend Deborah Vance is the type of grand role that she has deserved since she started stealing scenes on Designing Women 35 years ago. If anyone upsets her it is likely to be the long-overdue Tracee Ellis Ross, who could become the first black woman to win in this category since Isabel Sanford for The Jeffersons 40 years ago. Kaley Cuoco also has a decent shot for her impressive work on The Flight Attendant, which finally earned her Emmy attention after being overlooked for her 12-year tenure on the Emmy-winning sitcom The Big Bang Theory. Allison Janney deserves to be in serious contention for her typically impressive work in the final season of the wildly underrated Mom, but the 7-time Emmy winner will likely sit this one out. The final nominee — Shrill’s Aidy Bryant — will be an also-ran by virtue over the little buzz for her series. Predicted Winner: Jean Smart, Hacks Most Likely to Upset: Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series: This generally underwhelming category is the night’s biggest slam-dunk. It would be one of the biggest upsets in Emmy history if Jason Sudeikis lost for his title role on AppleTV’s Ted Lasso. It is an instantly iconic, critically acclaimed performance that has already won him a boatload of awards. Plus, his competition is relatively weak. Although The Kominsky Method’s Michael Douglas, Black-ish’s Anthony Anderson, and Shameless’s William H. Macy are all terrific actors, the latest seasons of their series generated relatively little buzz and acclaim and the fact that they combined have lost 14 times for these exact roles previously doesn’t bode well. The fifth nominee — Kenan’s Kenan Thompson — feels like filler to me. Predicted Winner: Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso Most Likely to Upset: Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series: You can never completely count out the Saturday Night Live ladies here, even though I strongly believe there should be a category for variety show performers that they should be competing in. Each of the three have major things working in their favor — Kate McKinnon has won this category twice, Cecily Strong had a memorable sendoff, and Aidy Bryant also got nominated for Lead Actress for Shrill — but I don’t think any of them had the iconic moments or the buzz that will allow them to win here. Oscar nominee Rosie Perez made a comeback with her moving work on The Flight Attendant, but it seems a bit too subdued and dramatic to win against the competition. The smart money is on Hannah Waddingham who gave a commanding, acerbic, and ultimately moving performance on the first season of Ted Lasso, but she faces stiff competition from her hilarious and sexy costar Juno Temple and Hannah Einbinder’s remarkably complex work on Hacks (although she is undoubtedly co-leads with Jean Smart and shouldn’t be in this category). Predicted Winner: Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso Most Likely to Upset: Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series: The least likely to triumph here is Hacks co-star Carl Clemons-Hopkins. His nomination is historic (he is the first openly gender nonbinary nominee in a major category) but his work seems far too subdued to win here. Unfortunately, Paul Reiser also seems unlikely for his work on The Kominsky Method. His loss here will make him an 11-time loser (he has 10 nominations for Mad About You, 6 for acting and 4 for producing). The remaining nominees include 4 co-stars from Ted Lasso (Brett Goldstein, Brendan Hunt, Nick Mohammed, and Jeremy Swift) and 2 members of the Saturday Night Live ensemble (Kenan Thompson and Bowen Yang). Thompson and Yang can’t be counted out, but I suspect it will go to Lasso standout and co-creator Goldstein who had a memorable arc in the show’s first season. Predicted Winner: Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso Most Likely to Upset: Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live
Outstanding Writing in a Comedy Series: The brilliant Peacock music business satire Girls5eva scored its sole nomination here and would make a very worthy winner, but clearly the Emmys weren’t keen on it. Pen15 is also critically adored, but seemingly lacking the buzz and widespread support to win here. The writing on The Flight Attendant was not its strongest aspect, rendering it also unlikely to win here. That leaves two episodes of Ted Lasso and one episode of Hacks. And I suspect the least deserving of the three will win — the somewhat uneven pilot of Ted Lasso. The Emmys love awarding pilots here and they clearly love Ted Lasso, so it seems like a slam dunk (although the pilot for Hacks was far more sharply written). Predicted Winner: “Pilot,” Ted Lasso Most Likely to Upset: “There Is No Line,” Hacks
Outstanding Directing in a Comedy Series: James Burrows scored his 46th (!!) Emmy nomination for directing B-Positive, but is almost assuredly not getting his 12th win given the complete lack of buzz for the show. Equally unlikely is James Widdoes for directing the moving series finale of Mom, although it would be wonderful to see the underrated show awarded for something other than Allison Janney’s acting. The Flight Attendant could win for its visually impressive and compelling pilot, but I suspect it will go to one of the three nominated Ted Lasso or the pilot of Hacks. The latter could definitely triumph if vote splitting occurs among the three episodes of Lasso nominated here, but I suspect the former will take it specifically for the Zach Braff-directed “Biscuits.” Predicted Winner: “Biscuits,” Ted Lasso Most Likely to Upset: “There is No Line,” Hacks
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WINNER PREDICTIONS — LIMITED SERIES
Outstanding Limited Series: This remarkably strong lineup seemed to be a real race up until last weekend. Even though Netflix’s period chess drama The Queen’s Gambit had dominated every awards show it had taken part in so far, it never had to face off against HBO’s gritty murder mystery Mare of Easttown, Amazon Prime’s adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer-Prize winning The Underground Railroad, or Disney+’s mega-nominated pop culture behemoth WandaVision. (It has been nominated against HBO’s searing and topical HBO sexual assault drama I May Destroy You numerous times and triumphed.) But after it’s astonishing showing at least week’s Creative Arts ceremony where it picked up 9 Emmys, the question doesn’t seem to be if it will win big on Sunday, but rather will it win enough to break the all-time record for a limited series. The love for the series, which is perfectly fine — even very good — but pales in comparison in quality to the other four nominees, is baffling to me. But nevertheless it looks poised to dominate. Predicted Winner: The Queen’s Gambit Most Likely to Upset: Mare of Easttown
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: This category was so jam-packed full of strong contenders that nearly a dozen brilliant performances got excluded. The 5 that made the cut all deserve to be here, but this is essentially a two-woman race between beloved ingenue Anya Taylor-Joy for her work on The Queen’s Gambit and previous Emmy- and Oscar-winner Kate Winslet for doing some of her career-best work on Mare of Easttown. It is a testament to the strength of this category that I May Destroy You’s Michaela Coel, Genius: Aretha’s Cynthia Erivo, and WandaVision’s Elizabeth Olsen — each of whom would be a richly deserving frontrunner in a less competitive year — don’t seem to have much of a shot. Predicted Winner: Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit Most Likely to Upset: Kate Winslet, Mare of Easttown
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: This one is a real head scratcher with only 1 of the 5 nominees hailing from a nominee for the top Limited Series award. That nominee — WandaVision’s Paul Bettany — should by default be considered the frontrunner, but I have trouble believing they will give him an Emmy for the role given that he plays an android and Olsen outacted him at every step. The other four nominees include two from series that majorly underperformed at this year’s nominations (Ewan McGregor’s legendary fashion designer in Halston and Hugh Grant’s against-type turn as a nefarious husband in The Undoing) and two from a project that was neither a Limited Series nor a Made-for-Television Movie (Lin-Manuel Miranda and Leslie Odom Jr. curiously got nominated here for their performances in the Disney+ presentation of a filmed Broadway performance of Hamilton). Honestly, it could go to any of the five, but I suspect Grant’s showy turn will prevail despite the lack of love for his series (notably, something similar happened last year when Mark Ruffalo triumphed for the otherwise un-nominated I Know This Much is True). Predicted Winner: Hugh Grant, The Undoing Most Likely to Upset: Paul Bettany, WandaVision
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: Perhaps the most bizarre nominee of the entire year is Moses Ingram for her brief and not particularly memorable performance in The Queen’s Gambit, which somehow got in over the layered and prominent work of her co-star Marielle Heller (who for me was the highlight of the whole series). She seems unlikely to win, as do Phillipa Soo and Renee Elise Goldsberry for their work in Hamilton, which I have trouble believing the Emmys will award here given the strange category placement and the fact that they already competed at the Tonys for these exact same performances. That leaves three brilliant performances from two of the year’s best shows. As Kate Winslet’s long-suffering mother and best friend, respectively, Jean Smart and Julianne Nicholson delivered heartbreaking and memorable work on Mare of Easttown. They would both make richly deserving winners, but I suspect both will lose to Kathryn Hahn. The beloved character actress got her most high-profile role to date as the nosy neighbor who turns out to be so much more on WandaVision. Predicted Winner: Kathryn Hahn, WandaVision Most Likely to Upset: Julianne Nicholson, Mare of Easttown
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: Just like it’s female counterpart, this category features an unimpressive co-star of The Queen’s Gambit (Thomas Brodie-Sanger) who got in over his more memorable and acclaimed costar (Bill Camp) and a host of Hamilton co-stars who already competed at the Tonys for the same performances (Daveed Diggs, Jonathan Groff, and Anthony Ramos). One of the Hamilton stars could easily take this one, but I expect (and hope) it’s a race between Paapa Essiedu’s heartbreaking work as a lonely gay man on I May Destroy You and Evan Peters’s nuanced turn as an earnest police detective on Mare of Easttown. The latter would be my personal preference given the quality of his understated performance and the host of wonderful, un-nominated performances he has given in recent years, particularly on American Horror Story. Predicted Winner: Evan Peters, Mare of Easttown Most Likely to Upset: Paapa Essiedu, I May Destroy You
Outstanding Writing in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: I suspect that the three nominated episodes of WandaVision will split votes, leading to a win for one of the other nominees. Conventional wisdom might say this is a race between The Queen’s Gambit and Mare of Easttown like many of the other Limited Series categories this year, but I suspect that voters will use this opportunity to award Michaela Coel for her brilliant work creating, writing, co-directing, and starring in the wildly acclaimed and profoundly important I May Destroy You. Predicted Winner: I May Destroy You Most Likely to Upset: The Queen’s Gambit
Outstanding Directing in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: This absolutely stacked category is one of the night’s most competitive category. Two episodes of I May Destroy You (one co-directed by series creator and star Michaela Cole) face off against Oscar nominee Barry Jenkins’s direction of The Underground Railroad, Scott Frank’s direction of The Queen’s Gambit, Matt Shakman’s direction of WandaVision, Craig Zobel’s direction of Mare of Easttown, and Thomas Kail’s direction of Hamilton. Each are impressive feats, but I suspect that The Queen’s Gambit sweep will include this category. Predicted Winner: The Queen’s Gambit Most Likely to Upset: Mare of Easttown
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WINNER PREDICTIONS — REALITY AND VARIETY
Outstanding Competition Program: Rupaul’s Drag Race has won the last 3 years and there is no reason to expect it will end its rein this year, especially given its strong showing at the Creative Arts Emmys last week. It is competing against The Amazing Race, Top Chef, and The Voice, which won the prior 15 (!!) years. That’s right, in the 18 years the category has existed only those four shows have ever won. If for no other reason than to spice things up, I would love to see the fifth nominee Nailed It! upset. Predicted Winner: RuPaul’s Drag Race Most Likely to Upset: Nailed It!
Outstanding Variety Talk Series: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver has won the past 5 years and there is no reason to expect it will end its rein this year, given that none of its competitors — The Daily Show with Trevor Noah, The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, Jimmy Kimmel Live!, or Conan — had particularly notable seasons. If anyone upsets, it will likely be Conan given that it recently went off the air for good. Predicted Winner: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver Most Likely to Upset: Conan
Outstanding Variety Sketch Series: Saturday Night Live has won the past 4 years and there is no reason to expect it will end its rein this year, even though its sole competitor — A Black Lady Sketch Show — would be an infinitely more inspired and deserving choice. Predicted Winner: Saturday Night Live Most Likely to Upset: A Black Lady Sketch Show
Outstanding Variety Special (Live): If the absolutely atrocious Oscars telecast wins, it will be a travesty. (Check out my review of that here.) Almost as disappointing would be a win for the decidedly unmemorable Super Bowl Halftime show headlined by The Weeknd. A middling choice would be Stephen Colbert’s election night special. A better choice would be the inspired Grammy Awards, which did a very impressive job mounting the show during a pandemic. And perhaps the best choice, and the likely winner, is the Tom Hanks-hosted inauguration special Celebrating America. Predicted Winner: Celebrating America Most Likely to Upset: The 63rd Grammy Awards
Outstanding Variety Special (Pre-Recorded): This eclectic category features special reunions of the cast of Friends and The West Wing (see my review of the Friends reunion here), filmed Broadway performances of Hamilton and American Utopia, a standup special by Dave Chapelle, and the wildly acclaimed comedy/music special Bo Burnham: Inside. The smart money is on Hamilton, but Bo Burnham can (and should) upset. Predicted Winner: Hamilton Most Likely to Upset: Bo Burnham: Inside
Outstanding Writing for a Variety Series: It’s unclear why the Academy saved this award for the main telecast when most of its kin were presented last weekend. This seems likely to go to John Oliver’s team, but A Black Lady Sketch Show and The Amber Ruffin Show would make wonderful upsets. The other two nominees — Saturday Night Live and The Late Show with Stephen Colbert — did not have particularly memorable years. Predicted Winner: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver Most Likely to Upset: A Black Lady Sketch Show
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