Presidential🏛️predictor Lichtman
He is ALWAYS RIGHT! — He says Trump WILL NOT WIN in 2024.
Biden will beat Trump in 2024, says historian, Allan Lichtman who predicted every presidential race since 1984.
👱♂️ Now he is saying… 👉‘This time, I predict Trump will lose’
Allan Lichtman is one of the few forecasters who predicted the victory of Donald Trump over Hilary Clinton in 2016.
Who is the guy?
Allan Jay Lichtman is an American historian who has taught at American University in Washington, D.C. since 1973.
He’s a historian who writes books and predicts Presidential elections and writes books about it and more.
He knows his stuff! So far, he’s been right every single time!
The historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 — including President Donald Trump’s win in 2016 — has announced his pick for 2020: Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
Allan Lichtman, an author and history professor at American University, revealed his prediction is Biden in 2024. in an op-ed video for The New York Times published in the NY Times.
Lichtman’s predictive method — which puts him in the minority of analysts who were right in calling Trump’s win in 2016— largely ignores the detailed cross-tab polling analyses and swing state bean-counting that are often prioritized in modern political punditry.
From the content of his system…
Allan Lichtman concludes that voters select the next president mainly on how they feel the incumbent president has governed the country.
If the voters are satisfied with the condition of the country, they will re-elect the incumbent president, or whoever from his party runs in his stead.
If the voters are dissatisfied, they will transfer the presidency to the rival party.
The election campaign has little if any meaningful effect on the voters. Voters are not swayed by the spectacle of campaigning.
Whether the voters are correct to blame the president for the country’s specific problems is another matter; the point is that the election campaign is irrelevant. Voters vote retrospectively, not prospectively.
Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House
Here Below are his, “The Keys to the White House is a checklist” of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election.
Here’s how it works.
When five or fewer of the following statements are false, the incumbent party candidate is predicted to win the election. When six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.
- Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Major policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
- No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandals.
- No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
“The pollsters and the pundits cover elections as though they were horse races,” Lichtman said in the Times’ video. “But history tells us voters are not fooled by the tricks of the campaign. Voters vote pragmatically according to how well the party holding the White House has governed the country.”
Polls are “snapshots in time,” Lichtman said.
“None of this in the end has any impact whatsoever on the outcome of a presidential election.”
2024 Presidential Election Odds Update May 11: Four More Years For Biden, Say Allan Lichtman.
May 11 update: It’s looking more and more like Joe Biden is on top!
People actually bet on who will win the election.
I had absolutely no idea! 🤔 They call it, Candidates In Sports.
Legal Betting on Presidential Candidates is Real!
- Donald Trump Favored To Earn GOP Nomination For 2024 Election
- President Biden Odds Are Mixed On Whether He Runs In 2024
- Current Presidential Election Odds Favor A 2024 Trump Loss
New York sports betting laws do not allow betting on the 2024 presidential elections, as soon as Joe Biden had been declared the winner over 45th President Donald Trump.
Sports betting sites across Europe — where political betting is legal — began pricing up who would win the 2024 election. Below is info on it.
🎰💵 I don’t personally think gambling is a good idea!
I am not including the links below. 🎲 You are on your own to hunt them down!
The Rest Of The Field
⭐️ Nikki Haley+33002.9% ⭐️ Gavin Newsom+40002.4% ⭐️ Pete Buttigieg+50002.0% ⭐️ Michelle Obama+50002.0% ⭐️ Gretchen Whitmer+66001.5% ⭐️ Hillary Clinton+66001.5% ⭐️ Tucker Carlson+66001.5% ⭐️ Vivek Ramaswamy+66001.2% ⭐️ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+100001.0% ⭐️ Candace Owens+100001.0% ⭐️ Bernie Sanders+100001.0% ⭐️ Mike Pence+100001.0% ⭐️ Andrew Yang+200000.5% ⭐️ Bill Gates+200000.5% ⭐️ Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson+200000.5% ⭐️ Elon Musk+200000.5% ⭐️ Joe Rogan+200000.5% ⭐️ Kanye West+200000.5% ⭐️ Mike Pompeo+200000.5%
↑ Odds improved; ↓ Odds declined
According to the 2024 election odds listed at Ladbrokes, President Joe Biden (40.0%), former President Donald Trump (28.6%) and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (16.7%) remained most likely to be the next US President.
If you want to meet Allan Lichtman …who predicted every presidential race since 1984.
🎬 Below is a quick video — 1 min 26 sec👇👇👇
👇Below are links to a couple of Allan’s books.👇
⭐️There are no Affiliate links in this article.
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