President Biden’s Big SOTU Moment

Persuadable voters will be watching. What do they expect to see?

’Twas the State of the Union address, and all through the White House, President Joe Biden and his administration are undoubtedly in a last-minute flurry of activity and anticipation.

Heading into this week, the president’s polling hasn’t been looking overwhelmingly positive.

Biden’s popularity, which started at a stellar 55% when he took office in January 2021, plummeted with the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal in August of 2021 and never recovered. Today, Biden’s numbers are almost exactly inverted from when he first took office.

When President Biden was inaugurated, his approval was at 55.8% and disapproval at 35.5%.

As Biden prepares to address the nation tonight, he does so with a 56.4% disapproval, 39.2 approval rating, according to the most recent Real Clear Politics polling average.

When asked about the direction of the country, polling looks even worse for the president. An average of 65% of Americans believe the country is moving in the wrong direction under Biden’s leadership.

With Biden’s polling looking so anemic, third-party candidates are aggressively courting undecided and persuadable voters who tell pollsters they don’t want to vote for Biden or Donald Trump.

“Third-party group No Labels is expected to move forward with a 2024 campaign,” reported the Associated Press yesterday.

“After months of leaving open whether the group would offer a ticket, No Labels delegates are expected to vote Friday in favor of launching a presidential campaign for this fall’s election, according to the people familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the group’s internal deliberations,” condensed the AP.

While No Labels is still a moneyed campaign in search of a candidate, popular candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are making Democratic analysts very nervous.

There are disagreements within the Democratic Party and plenty of them. Candidates hoping to set themselves up as alternatives to Joe Biden are sure to exploit progressive infighting in the weeks to come.

Michigan Democrats launched a protest vote against Joe Biden on Super Tuesday this week.

“Why Minnesota’s ‘Uncommitted’ Vote Is a Real Threat to Biden’s Re-Election,” screamed The Daily Beast’s J. Patrick Coolican on March 6, 2024. “Progressives protesting over Biden’s support for Israel drew 19 percent of the state’s Democratic primary on Tuesday. Biden can’t afford to lose that many votes.”

“Despite no money and a bare-bones, last-minute organization, the ‘Uncommitted’ line pulled nearly 19 percent, as progressive voters sought to send a message to Biden that he needs to change his policy toward Israel and its ongoing war in Gaza if he’s to earn their vote,” added Coolican.

Fissures within the Democratic Party coalition aren’t the only obstacles Biden will have to overcome tonight.

“Layoffs rise to the highest for any February since 2009,” reported Jeff Cox for CNBC this week. “Layoff announcements in February hit their highest level for the month since 2009, Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported Thursday.”

“From a historical perspective, this was the worst February since 2009, which saw 186,350 announcements as the worst of the financial crisis was seemingly coming to an end,” Cox explained gloomily. “Financial markets bottomed the following month, paving the way for the longest economic expansion on record, lasting until the Covid pandemic in March 2020.”

In worse news for struggling working-class families living paycheck to paycheck, salaries aren’t keeping pace with the inflation that was supposed to be “transitory”. Now, it seems an extra 30% for living expenses is baked into overstretched budgets at this point.

“US salaries are falling,” noted Alex Christian for the BBC this morning. “Employers say compensation is just ‘resetting.’”

“The mass US layoffs of the past few years are continuing,” sketched Christian. “In 2024 alone, thousands of workers across many sectors, including media and technology, have lost their jobs and are on the hunt for new ones. But some are finding an unwelcome surprise as they scan listings for open roles. A salary bump is all but impossible; in many cases, wages seem lower than their previous pay — even for the same jobs.”

Despite these concerns, or perhaps because of them, the incumbent President wants undecided voters to consider supporting his second term.

“Biden will try to use State of the Union address to convince voters he deserves a second term,” Zeke Miller and Seung Min Kim predicted for the Associated Press this week.

“Biden’s third such address from the House rostrum will be something of an on-the-job interview, as the nation’s oldest president tries to quell voter concerns about his age and job performance while sharpening the contrast with his all-but-certain November rival,” wrote the pair, without mentioning de facto 2024 Republican Party presidential candidate Donald Trump. “The president hopes to showcase his accomplishments on infrastructure and manufacturing, as well as push for action on aid to Ukraine, tougher migration rules, and lower drug prices, among other issues.”

“But as he does so, the 81-year-old president will be closely watched not just for his message but for whether he can deliver it with vigor and command,” they wrote.

“Biden’s allies are begging him to fight harder,” advised Edward-Isaac Dovere for CNN today. “The State of the Union is his chance to do so.”

“A handful of Democratic governors made their way through a gaggle of their colleagues last month to tell President Joe Biden directly what they’ve been stressing behind the scenes: He needs to be fighting harder,” began Dovere.

“State of the Union,” President Biden is said to have told them.

“Democrats pin 2024 hopes and fears on Biden’s State of the Union,” Andrew Solender and Alex Thompson summed it up perfectly for Axios today.

“Some Democrats dread a high-profile senior moment,” they pointed out. “Others expressed confidence that Biden can repeat last year’s energetic performance.”

“We are all nervous,” an unnamed House Democrat was quoted in the article, “about Biden’s ability to speak without blowing things.”

“A Democratic strategist, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said simply,” Solender and Thompson concluded. “‘Let’s see some main character energy!’”

(contributing writer, Brooke Bell)