Predicting the Unpredictable: The 2020 Emmy Nominations

With an unprecedented number of eligible series, an astounding number of snubs and surprises are inevitable when the 72nd Annual Primetime Emmy Award nominations are announced on Tuesday, July 28th at 8:30am.

10 THINGS TO KNOW BEFORE YOU READ MY PREDICTIONS

• For those of you who don’t know, the Emmys are television’s top honor. They are what the Oscars are to film, the Tonys are to theater, and the Grammys are to music.(If one individual wins one of each, they are known as an EGOT recipient.)
• This year will mark the 72nd consecutive year the ceremony has been held. The first ceremony aired on January 25, 1949. (Fun fact: the legendary Betty White, who continues to be active at age 98, scored her first nomination at the 3rd Annual Emmys in 1951.)
• The eligibility period for this year is June 1, 2019 and May 31, 2020. Thus, any series that aired all (or the majority of) its most recent season outside that time frame is ineligible.
• The awards are voted on by members of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (ATAS), which currently numbers around 24,000. Voting for the nominees is by the respective branches (e.g., actors vote for the acting categories, directors vote for the directing categories), with the exception of the series awards which all are allowed to vote on. The voting period for nominations occurred between July 2 and July 13.
• Changes to the number of nominations per category were announced last month. Outstanding Comedy and Drama Series will now have eight nominees each, up from seven the prior year and the traditional five that lasted several decades. The number of nominees in other categories will be determined by the number of submissions (or possible nominees). For example, a category will have five nominees if it has 20–80 submissions, but six nominees if it has 81–160 submissions, seven nominees if it has 161–240 submission, and eight nominees if it has more than 240 submissions. You can find more information about the new rules here.
• The ceremony is split into two, with the “major” categories (Outstanding Series, lead and supporting acting, writing, and directing) announced during the main ceremony and several dozen “minor” categories (mostly technical achievements) being presented at the Creative Arts Emmy ceremony, which takes place the preceding weekend.
• The winners will be voted on from August 21 to August 31 by special judging panels made up of a subset of ATAS members.
• This year, the Emmys will air on ABC on Sunday, September 20th at 8pm EST/5pm PST. The only other detail about the ceremony that is known at this point is that Jimmy Kimmel will be hosting. The format, which will undoubtedly differ from the traditional ceremony due to COVID-19, has yet to be announced. In fact, this will be the first major awards show of the pandemic era, as the 92nd Annual Academy Awards occurred just prior to the pandemic reaching America and the 74th Tony Awards, which were initially scheduled to air on June 7, have been indefinitely postponed.
• Last year, 69 of the 96 (72%) of the nominees I predicted ended up reaping nominations. I am hoping I can increase that this year, but given the intense competition in the major categories I am expecting a lot of out-of-left field inclusions and snubs.
• Actors Leslie Jones (Saturday Night Live), Laverne Cox (Orange is the New Black), Tatiana Maslany (Orphan Black), and Josh Gad (Frozen) will present the nominees at 8:30 AM PST on Tuesday, July 28th. The announcement can be watched live on YouTube via this link.

COMEDY SERIES PREDICTIONS

Outstanding Comedy Series: Of last year’s seven nominees, over half are ineligible this year. Veep wrapped its seven-year run, Fleabag is not coming back in the foreseeable future, and the latest seasons of Barry and Russian Doll were both delayed to COVID-19. The remaining three holdover nominees all seem like sure bets — the sixth and final season of Schitt’s Creek, the fourth and final season of The Good Place, and the third season of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. Numerous shows are competing for the other 5 slots. There are four series that have been nominated before and could return to the race, including 5-time winner Modern Family (which aired its 11th and final season earlier this year), 5-time nominee Silicon Valley (which aired its 6th and final season this year), 3-time nominee Black-ish, and 8-time nominee Curb Your Enthusiasm. Given the tepid reception of Family and Valley’s final seasons and the fading buzz of Black-ish, I suspect that only Curb makes it in of that group. That leaves four spots open for new or otherwise never-nominated series to make it in. One of these spots will likely go to Dead To Me, which scored a nomination for Christina Applegate in Lead Actress last year and got even better buzz for its improved second season. Three other second season shows are gunning for their first nominations here: HBO’s Insecure, Hulu’s Ramy, and Netflix’s The Kominsky Method. There is also the critically acclaimed Better Things, which could surprise for its third season. As for new series, only Hulu’s The Great and HBO’s Run seem like possibilities, with the latter’s chances undoubtedly hit by it getting canceled during the voting period.

• Predicted Nominees: Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO); Dead to Me (Netflix); The Good Place (NBC); The Great (Hulu); Insecure (HBO); The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon); Ramy (Hulu); Schitt’s Creek (PopTV)

Outstanding Lead Actress: Last year’s race was a nail-biting showdown between Phoebe Waller-Bridge (who eventually prevailed for Fleabag) and Emmy legend Julia Louis-Dreyfus (who had gone six-for-six in the category for her work on Veep). Neither are eligible this year, nor is last year’s nominee Natasha Lyonne (Russian Doll). However, Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), Catherine O’Hara (Schitt’s Creek), and Christina Applegate (Dead to Me) are still eligible and will undoubtedly be returning. It seems likely that Linda Cardellini will join Applegate as a nominee for Dead to Me given her rave reviews and the show’s heightened profile. Elle Fanning (The Great), Merrit Wever (Run), Awkwafina (Nora from Queens), and Kirsten Dunst (On Becoming a God in Central Florida) are also possible contenders for their new series. A handful of prior nominees who were omitted last year could come back, including Issa Rae for Insecure, Allison Janney for Mom, Tracie Ellis Ross for Black-ish, and Pamela Adlon for Better Things. And I suppose one should never count out Helen Hunt, whose 4-time Emmy winning role as Jamie Buchman on Mad About You was revived for a tepidly received revival on Spectrum. Perhaps this is wishful thinking, but I think there is a good shot the Emmys might finally nominate Kristen Bell for her brilliant work on the final season of The Good Place.

• Predicted Nominees: Christina Applegate, Dead to Me (Netflix); Kristen Bell, The Good Place (NBC); Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon); Linda Cardellini, Dead to Me (Netflix); Catherine O’Hara, Schitt’s Creek (PopTV); Issa Rae, Insecure (HBO)

Outstanding Lead Actor: In stark contrast to the prior two categories, only one of last year’s six nominees is ineligible this year — winner Bill Hader (Barry). Thus, it’s conceivable that most of the category could be filled by returning nominees like Ted Danson (The Good Place), Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method), Eugene Levy (Schitt’s Creek), Don Cheadle (Black Monday), and Anthony Anderson (Black-ish). I suspect that all except Anderson return and they will be joined by Larry David for Curb Your Enthusiasm (who hasn’t missed an acting nomination for the series since its first season) and Ramy Youssef (whose profile was significantly raised by a recent Golden Globe win). It is truly slim pickings in this category with the only other contenders being actors from shows that very low on buzz like Domnhall Gleeson (Run), Ricky Gervais (After Life), Paul Rudd (Living With Yourself), Jim Carrey (Kidding), and Steve Carell (Space Force).

• Predicted Nominees: Don Cheadle, Black Monday (Showtime); Ted Danson, The Good Place (NBC); Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO); Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method (Netflix); Eugene Levy, Schitt’s Creek (PopTV); Ramy Youssef, Ramy (Hulu)

Outstanding Supporting Actress: Due to the tremendous number of submissions in this category, we should expect eight nominees. (But the last two years, ties led to there being eight nominees here so that’s not particularly novel.) Of last year’s nominees, Anna Chlumsky (Veep), Sian Clifford (Fleabag), Olivia Colman (Fleabag), and Sarah Goldberg (Barry) are all ineligible this year, but Alex Borstein (Maisel), Marin Hinkle (Maisel), Kate McKinnon (Saturday Night Live), and Betty Gilpin (GLOW) all remain eligible. All four could return, but I suspect Gilpin is vulnerable to being omitted. In terms of who will take the remaining 4 or 5 slots, there are a bevy of serious contenders. Annie Murphy richly deserves her first nomination for her iconic role as Alexis Rose on Schitt’s Creek and appears poised to receive it. If the Schitt’s Creek love is as strong as expected, Emily Hampshire could join her as well. Multi-Emmy winner Jane Lynch’s expanded role on Maisel could make it that three of the nominees in this category are from Maisel. Then there is the “How have they never been nominated?” folks like D’Arcy Carden (The Goood Place) and Rita Moreno (One Day at a Time) and the inevitable Saturday Night Live contenders like Aidy Bryant.

• Predicted Nominees: Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon); D’Arcy Carden, The Good Place (NBC); Getty Gilpin, GLOW (Netflix); Emily Hampshire, Schitt’s Creek (PopTV); Marin Hinkle, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon); Jane Lynch, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon); Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Annie Murphy, Schitt’s Creek (PopTV)

Outstanding Supporting Actor: Of last year’s six nominees, four are ineligible (Veep’s Tony Hale and Barry’s Henry Winkler, Stephen Root, and Anthony Carrigan). And with hundreds of submissions, this category should get eight nominees. So we can certainly expect Tony Shalhoub (Maisel) and Alan Arkin (Kominsky) to return. But what about the other six slots? One should certainly go to Dan Levy for his work on Schitt’s Creek (although the argument for him as a supporting character is a questionable one). Sterling K. Brown isn’t particularly deserving for his work in a glorified guest role on Maisel, but both Brown and Maisel are beloved by the Emmys. Two time Oscar winner Mahershala Ali seems like a solid bet for Ramy. Then there is prior winner Louie Anderson (Baskets), Nicholas Hoult (The Great), James Marsden (Dead to Me), and Kenan Thompson (Saturday Night Live). And if the Schitt’s Creek love turns into an all encompassing tidal wave, it could bring Noah Reid and even Chris Elliot to nominations.

Predicted Nominees: Mahershala Ali, Ramy (Hulu); Louie Anderson, Baskets (Fx); Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method (Netflix); Sterling K. Brown, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon); Nicholas Hoult, The Great (Hulu); Dan Levy, Schitt’s Creek (PopTV); Noah Reid, Schitt’s Creek (PopTV); Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)

DRAMA SERIES PREDICTIONS

Outstanding Drama Series: Of last year’s eight nominees, only two are ineligible — HBO’s Game of Thrones and Netflix’s Bodyguard. It is safe to say that the other six holdovers from last year are all strong contenders — AMC’s Better Call Saul, BBCAmerica’s Killing Eve, Netflix’s Ozark, FX’s Pose, HBO’s Succession, and NBC’s This is Us. But I suspect that Killing Eve and This is Us will sit this one out due to a combination of fierce combination and fading buzz. That leaves four spots up for grabs. They could easily be filled with four former nominees that have returned to eligibility — Netflix’s The Crown and Stranger Things, HBO’s Westworld, and Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale. There is also Season Two of Big Little Lies, a high profile series that won a ton of Emmys for its first season (then classified as a Limited Series). As for newcomers, there is also AppleTV’s divisive but incredibly high profile The Morning Show, Disney+’s well-received Star Wars series The Mandalorian, and HBO’s The Outsider and Euphoria. And it’s always possible that four-time nominee Homeland returns for its stellar final season.

• Predicted Nominees: Better Call Saul (AMC); The Crown (Netflix); The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); The Morning Show (AppleTV); Ozark (Netflix); Pose (Fx); Stranger Things (Netflix); Succesion (HBO)

Outstanding Lead Actress: Of last year’s seven nominees, only Games of Thrones’s Emilia Clarke and House of Cards’s Robin Wright are ineligible. All five of the other nominees are strong contenders to return — Jodie Comer and Sandra Oh for Killing Eve, Laura Linney for Ozark, Mandy Moore for This is Us, and Oscar-winner Viola Davis for her jaw-dropping work in the final season of How to Get Away with Murder. However, I suspect that only Comer, Linney, and Davis return and the other three slots are up for grabs. Despite the dozens of worthy contenders, the other three spots seem locked up — Olivia Colman for The Crown (the recent Oscar winner took over the role of Queen Elizabeth II from recent Emmy winner in this category Claire Foy), Jennifer Aniston for The Morning Show (the Friends Emmy winner won raves and a SAG Award for her role), and Elisabeth Moss for The Handmaid’s Tale (she was nominated for both of the first two seasons, winning once). Despite the tepid reception of the show’s second season, Emmy voters would be foolish to overlook the brilliant work of Oscar winner Nicole Kidman in Big Little Lies. Other strong contenders include Evan Rachel Wood (a two time nominee for Westworld), Reese Witherspoon (who has two high profile contenders with Big Little Lies and The Morning Show), Christine Baranski (The Good Fight), Claire Danes (a two-time winner for Homeland), and newcomers Zendaya (Euphoria), and Janelle Monae (Homecoming).

• Predicted Nominees: Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show (AppleTV); Olivia Colman, The Crown (Netflix); Jodie Comer, Killing Eve (BBC America); Viola Davis, How to Get Away with Murder (ABC); Laura Linney, Ozark (Netflix); Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu).

Outstanding Lead Actor: Of last year’s six nominees, all but Game of Thrones’s Kit Harrington are eligible to return. Billy Porter (Pose), Jason Bateman (Ozark), Bob Odenkirk (Better Call Saul), and Sterling K. Brown (This is Us) all seem like locks, with Brown’s co-star Milo Ventimiglia looking to sit this one out. So who will the final two slots go to? A strong argument can be made for the two stars of breakout hit Succession — Brian Cox and Jeremy Strong. But one of those spots could also go to Tobias Menzies, whose work as Prince Phillip on Season Three of The Crown was superb. Other contenders include prior winners Idris Elba (Luther) and Rami Malek (Mr. Robot) and prior nominee Liev Schreiber (Ray Donovan). And it would be unwise to not even consider Oscar-winning film legend Al Pacino for his series debut on Amazon’s Hunters.

• Predicted Nominees: Jason Bateman, Ozark (Netflix); Sterling K. Brown, This is Us (NBC); Brian Cox, Succession (HBO); Tobias Menzies, The Crown (Netflix); Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul (AMC); Billy Porter, Pose (Fx).

Outstanding Supporting Actress: Last year’s six nominees included four co-stars from Game of Thrones, so expect plenty of turnover. Last year’s winner Julia Garner (Ozark) is a sure bet to return and nominee Fiona Shaw (Killing Eve) could as well, although the lackluster reception of the show’s third season could spell trouble for her. One sure bet for the remaining six or seven slots is Helena Bonham Carter, who took over the role of Princess Margaret from past nominee Vanessa Kirby on Season Three of The Crown. Two additional likely contenders are Oscar winning film royalty Meryl Streep and Laura Dern for Big Little Lies. Even if the show gets overlooked elsewhere, it seems hard to imagine that voters would overlook the meaty turns by these acting legends. Other strong contenders include past winners Ann Dowd (The Handmaid’s Tale) and Thandie Newton (Westworld) and critical darlings Janet McTeer (Ozark), Sarah Snook (Succession), Rhea Seehorn (Better Call Saul), Yvonne Strahovski (The Handmaid’s Tale), and Gugu Mbatha-Raw (The Morning Show). And one can never count out Millie Bobby Brown, who reaped nominations for the first two seasons of Stranger Things.

• Predicted Nominees: Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown (Netflix); Laura Dern, Big Little Lies (HBO); Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Julia Garner, Ozark (Netflix); Janet McTeer, Ozark (Netflix); Thandie Newton, Westworld (HBO); Sarah Snook, Succession (HBO); Meryl Streep, Big Little Lies (HBO)

Outstanding Supporting Actor: Of last year’s seven nominees, four are ineligible (three Game of Thrones actors and House of Cards co-star Michael Kelly). Of last year’s remaining nominees, Better Call Saul nominees Jonathan Banks and Giancarlo Esposito seem poised to return, but This is Us costar Chriss Sullivan seems like a long-shot. That leaves six spots up for grabs. Kieran Culkin and Matthe Macfadyen are strong contenders for Succession, as are Billy Crudup and Mark Duplass for The Morning Show. David Harbour seems a strong contender to return for Stranger Things and Tom Pelphrey could join the race for his acclaimed turn on Ozark. Bradley Whiftord, a past winner for The West Wing, could also join the race with his expanded role on The Handmaid’s Tale. There is also Josh O’Connor’s terrific work as Prince Charles on The Crown and Mandy Patinkin’s typically brilliant work on Homeland (which has been cited by the Academy even when the series fell out of favor).

• Predicted Nominees: Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul (AMC); Billy Crudup, The Morning Show (AppleTV); Kieran Culkin, Succession (HBO); Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul (AMC); David Harbour, Stranger Things (Netflix); Josh O’Connor, The Crown (Netflix); Mandy Patinkin, Homeland (Showtime); Bradley Whitford, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)

LIMITED SERIES AND MADE-FOR-TELEVISION MOVIE PREDICTIONS

Outstanding Limited Series: This highly competitive category seems to have three locks and then several others vying for the remaining two slots (based on the number of submissions there should be five nominees here). The sure bets are Mrs. America, an all-star FX on Hulu series about the feminist revolution in America; Watchmen, the timely comic book adaptation that Damon Lindelof brought to HBO; and Unbelievable, the wrenching exploration of sexual assault that aired on Netflix. Hulu’s highly buzzed Little Fires Everywhere seems like a solid bet for the fourth spot with the fifth spot going to one of the following — AppleTV’s Defending Jacob, Netflix’s Hollywood, HBO’s I Know This Much is True, Netflix’s Unorthodox, HBO’s The Plot Against America, and Hulu’s Normal People. It seems foolish to bet against Ryan Murphy (Hollywood) or HBO (which has been a huge player in this category for years), but I suspect a big push by AppleTV and huge stars like Chris Evans and Michelle Dockery will get the final spot for Jacob.

Predicted Nominees: Defending Jacob (AppleTV); Little Fires Everywhere (Hulu); Mrs. America (FX on Hulu); Unbelievable (Netflix); Watchmen (HBO)

Outstanding Made for Television Movie: In recent years, this has been the weakest lineup due to the waning popularity of the made-for-television movie. This year is no exception with only HBO’s Hugh Jackman-Allison Janney starrer Bad Education and Netflix’s Breaking Bad spinoff El Camino looking like truly worthy contenders. Other contenders include Netflix’s American Son, Lifetime’s The Clark Sisters, Netflix’s Dolly Parton’s Heartstrings, Disney+’s Togo, and Lifetime’s Patsy & Loretta. A truly inspired nomination would be Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. the Reverend, a wildly inventive and successful “choose your own adventure”-style interactive film that brought back the Netflix series.

• Predicted Nominees: American Son (Netflix); Bad Education (HBO); The Clark Sisters: First Ladies of Gospel (Lifetime); El Camino: A Breaking Bad Movie (Netflix); Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Kimmy vs. The Reverend (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: This category has two clear locks — Oscar winner Cate Blanchett for Mrs. America and Oscar winner Regina King for Watchmen. Merritt Wever and Kaitlyn Dever seem like strong contenders for Unbelievable, as do Kerry Washington and Reese Witherspoon for Little Fires Everywhere. But only five can make it based on the number of submissions, so I suspect that Witherspoon gets the shaft (which is heartbreaking considering her brilliant work across three series in Emmy contention). Potential surprises include Michelle Dockery (Defending Jacob), Shira Haas (Unorthodox), Zoe Kazan (The Plot Against America), Aunjanue Ellis (The Clark Sisters), Daisy Edgar-Jones (Normal People), and Helen Mirren (Catherine the Great).

• Predicted Nominees: Cate Blanchett, Mrs. America (FX on Hulu); Kaitlyn Dever, Unbelievable (Netflix); Regina King, Watchmen (HBO); Kerry Washington, Little Fires Everywhere (Hulu); Merrit Wever, Unbelievable (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: The surest bets here seems to be Hugh Jackman’s acclaimed turn in Bad Education, Aaron Paul’s return to the role that won him three Emmys in El Camino, and Mark Ruffalo for playing twins in I Know This Much is True. The remaining two spots will likely go to some combination of the following — Oscar winner Russell Crowe for The Loudest Voice, Oscar winner Jeremy Irons for Watchmen, Paul Mescal for Normal People, Chris Evans for Defending Jacob, Jeremy Pope for Hollywood, and Sacha Baron Cohen for The Spy.

• Predicted Nominees: Russell Crowe, The Loudest Voice (Showtime); Jeremy Irons, Watchmen (HBO); Hugh Jackman, Bad Education (HBO); Aaron Paul, El Camino (Netflix); Mark Ruffalo, I Know This Much is True (HBO)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: One of the biggest questions in this category is which of the high profile supporting actresses of Mrs. America will make it in? Sarah Paulson, Rose Byrne, Uzo Aduba, Margo Martindale, and Tracey Ullman all stand a strong chance and there is a small possibility that all five could make it in. But they would have to fight off Jean Smart (Watchmen), Toni Collette (Unbelievable), Allison Janney (Bad Education), Patti LuPone (Hollywood), Holland Taylor (Hollywood), Cherry Jones (Defending Jacob), and Melissa Leo (I Know This Much is True). This race is brimming with acting royalty.

• Predicted Nominees: Rose Byrne, Mrs. America (FX on Hulu); Toni Collette (Unbelievable); Allison Janney, Bad Education (HBO); Sarah Paulson, Mrs. America (FX on Hulu); Jean Smart, Watchmen (HBO); Tracey Ullman, Mrs. America (FX on Hulu)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: Perhaps the year’s weakest category, the only locks seem to be Watchmen’s Tim Blake Nelson and Hollywood’s Jim Parsons. But there are six slots to fill, which is good news for Mrs. America’s John Slattery, Watchmen’s Yahya Abdul-Mateen II and Louis Gossett Jr., Bad Education’s Ray Romano, The Plot Against America’s John Turturro, El Camino’s Jesse Plemons and Robert Forster, Hollywood’s Darren Criss and Dylan McDermott, and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt’s Titus Burgess (who should have at least one Emmy for his role at this point).

• Predicted Nominees: Louis Gossett Jr., Watchmen (HBO); Tim Blake Nelson, Watchmen (HBO); Jim Parsons, Hollywood (Netflix); Jesse Plemons, El Camino (Netflix); Ray Romano, Bad Education (HBO); John Slattery, Mrs. America (FX on Hulu)

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Click here for my recap and review of last year’s Emmys