PGA DraftKings Picks for the Sentry Tournament of Champions

10K+ Range: There are no Wrong Answers

Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Bryson DeCheambeau, and Viktor Hovland make up the 10k and over price range on DraftKings this week…and, well, I’m not ready to cross out any of them from my player pool.

Jon Rahm (11000): Statistically speaking, Rahm was far and away the best golfer in 2021 — he was lapping people in terms of strokes gained. So if you take into account the break from golf since at least early December, you’re likely to revert back to these baseline statistics that will tell you Rahm is the best golfer in the field this week. That said, Rahm hasn’t played competitive golf since mid-October — if there’s any reason to fade Rahm, it’s taking a pure gamble that he could be rusty.

Collin Morikawa (10800): I wasn’t especially keen on playing Morikawa early on in the week, because I’m trying to weigh putting and distance off the tee pretty heavily at Kapalua(which would be Mori’s main “weaknesses”)…but it appears that Morikawa *might* be the lowest owned golfer in the 10k range, which makes me somewhat interested in playing the #2 ranked golfer in the world who is looking to surpass Rahm and become the new top ranked golfer. Two 7th place finishes in two trips to the Tournament of Champions — Morikawa is worth a look here.

Justin Thomas (10600): Thomas will in all likelihood be the most popular golfer in this range. JT played well at the end of the fall, into early winter, and if you’re looking at course history for this week then Justin Thomas is your guy. He’s won the Tournament of Champions twice, along with two 3rd place finishes here. It’s just hard to imagine JT playing poorly at a place he’s thrived.

Bryson DeChambeau (10200): Bryson is always an interesting contrarian option. He’s not as well liked as these other guys, and therefore doesn’t get in DFS as much as he probably should. Bryson also carries the widest range of outcomes amongst the elite players, which makes clicking his name even scarier. That said, he bombs the ball better than anyone in the field (and should have no trouble hitting these massively wide fairways) and often putts very well — so he definitely has the combo to win here.

Viktor Hovland (10000): Hovland won his last two events in the fall, so it’ll be interesting to see if he just continues to tear it up and literally look like the second coming of Rory McIlroy, or potentially have a down event at Kapalua. The interesting thing to note is that Hovland’s clubs got lost in transit to Hawaii this past week. He apparently arrived last Wednesday and then didn’t receive his bag of clubs until yesterday — on top of which, according to Hovland’s social media, at least one club was reportedly broken…Really hard to tell if this is legit news that will negatively affect Viktor this week, or just noise to make people want to fade him! I’m leaning towards fading Vik, but wouldn’t be stunned either if he put together a great week.

9K+ Range: Small but Lethal

The 9K Range on DraftKings is very small: Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, and Sam Burns.

Three extraordinarily popular golfers, any which could burn you (no pun intended) if you decide to fade them on DK.

BUT, diving into it, similar to what I mentioned with Rahm, Patrick Cantlay (9700) hasn’t played in a few months..when he won the tour championship and went scorched earth for a few weeks (as well as the Ryder Cup in late September).

It’s really a question of how much rust you think Cantlay comes in with, because he’s honestly underpriced and deserves to be above 10k with how well he played in 2021.

Xander (9500) will be mega popular this week (as he often is), but for good reason. He’s finished top 5 at the Tournament of Champions each of the past three years, including a win. In general, Xander seems to dominate at no-cut events. It really comes down to whether you want to play someone chalky like Xander, but then likely need to find unique golfers elsewhere in your lineup.

Sam Burns (9100) was the clear MVP of the fall swing season. 3rd, 7th, 5th, 14th, 1st — those are his finishes in the fall. He’s elevated into a completely different player and deserves to be priced this high, even if it still feels like some sticker shock in a field this strong. I think Burns could be due for a downswing at some point, but he’s also projecting to be half the ownership of Xander and Cantlay. So if I take shots on any of these guys, it’s probably Burns first who just seems to tear easy, scoreable courses apart, and putts like a demi-god on Bermuda grass greens.

8K+ Range: Elite Golfers going Overlooked?

I’ll highlight two players in this range: Jordan Spieth and Brooks Keopka.

Spieth and Keopka project as the lowest owned golfers in this range, which is kind of mind boggling considering they’re likely the two best long-term golfers and most decorated in their careers (while also two of the most volatile). But I just don’t see an abundance of red flags to keep me away from playing either on DraftKings.

Jordan Spieth (8900): Spieth’s low ownership is likely due to a lackluster fall swing — he finished dead last at the Hero World Challenge at the start of December and just really hasn’t looked great in a while. That said, he’s won the TOC before and can get mega hot with the putter to score with the best of ’em. I don’t think his game has gotten too far off track, and I’m hopeful the break gave Spieth some time to recalibrate. He’s also a new father, which I think you could easily swing as a positive or negative factor in play too.

Brooks Keopka (8500): I think people just don’t like playing Brooks at non-majors. Me too, I mean you just don’t know what you’re gonna get. Brooks could easily just be enjoying a Hawaiian vacation and coming here to collect a paycheck. At the same time, he’s seemingly in good form and healthy..if he plays well early on I think he’ll be invested in the tournament. High risk, high reward play.

With Brooks Keopka, I’ve also started to factor in whether Bryson DeCheambeau is also in the field…because even if it’s not a major, I think Brooks still wants to beat and just be better than Bryson. I add this in as a positive for Kapalua.

7K+ Range: Slim Pickings for Me

Another pretty small range, but one where I don’t have all that strong a lean on yet. I’m just not all that excited about these 7 golfers.

Patrick Reed (7900): Reed is projecting for the most ownership in the entire field and I’m not entirely sure why. He played pretty poorly in the late summer and into the fall swing…The events where there are strokes gained stats to pull from it looks abysmal. He won the Tournament of Champions back in 2015, but his course history at Kapalua is a mixed bag overall. Reed is fiery competitor and likely a class of player above those others in the 7000s, but I’m most likely to fade him this week.

Marc Leishman (7500): Leishman is another guy who projects as a popular selection this week, who I think could end up even more popular than expected. It feels like everywhere I look on Twitter I see people betting outrights on Leishman. I get it completely — Leishman played well in the fall swing, carries decent enough course history at Kapalua, and can putt lights out. I like Leishman too this week, but probably not as much as the field does and will be cautious here.

Talor Gooch (7600): Assuming his ownership remains low as anticipated, Gooch seems like by far the best play to me in this range. He won his last start in the fall at the RSM Classic and just seems to be on a serious upward trajectory to me. If Sam Burns was the fall MVP, Gooch was the clear runner up. The drawback is that Gooch has no course history to speak of here, but I’m willing to take the shot anyway.

Jason Kokrak (7700): Coming off wins in his last two events in the fall/winter, Kokrak is another guy (like Gooch) who just seems to be a different, better golfer at this point. The improvements in his putting stats should no longer be considered flukey or running hot (if anyone thinks that) — he was simply the best putter on tour for an entire year in 2021. DraftKings pricing, and also betting odds, just haven’t caught up to how good Kokrak is in my opinion, making him a great value this week. He’ll be a moderately popular play, but for good reason.

6K+ Range: A True Grabbag

Si Woo Kim (6900) and Max Homa (6700) seem to be the popular plays towards the bottom, though neither should be outrageously chalky or anything. I have no issue with either play — they’re high upside guys with non-existent floors.

Garrick Higgo is another popular-ish play down here in the 6000s, but one I’m less sure of why — he’s just been awful ever since he won last summer at Congaree. His skillset does fit the course pretty well (bomb the ball and putt well), but not a DFS play I’m confident in really. I think I’d rather play Cam Davis, who has also been terrible since he won last Summer and whose skillset suits the course well, but at least he’ll be unowned on DK.

Kevin Kisner, Lucas Glover, and Matt Jones at the very bottom (min price) are probably the only absolute cross offs for me. This just doesn’t feel like the course or field for any of them to do well.

Seamus Power (6600): If I have to take a stand in the 6000s, it’s probably on Seamus Power. Last year he really dominated as a big time birdie-maker in mediocre field events, and the raw stats suggest he’s one of the top half players in this field. In fact, Power ranked 18th in my stat model. I’ll be curious though to see how he performs in some tougher fields like this one. Will to take a shot on Seamus.

The Model

I’m never married to the model, but this is what mine spit out from rickrungood.com:

Going back to the last 50 rounds, I factored in driving distance, par-5 scoring, birdie or better %, strokes gained: putting, strokes gained: T2G, and proximity range 50–125 yards.

Best of luck this week.