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Abstract

experts did not predict — the attempt to quickly subjugate Ukraine led, instead, to a prolonged confrontation and a more united Europe.Sanctions imposed on Russia have crippled the economy. The severe lack of readiness meant that Russia had to default into a wartime government, spending more on the military and less on education and health care.The incompetency of authoritarian movements and governments seems hard-wired. These movements appear not to favor mechanisms for self-reflection, feedback, or calibration—instead, suppression, blind loyalty, and the rule of force are preferred.It is no wonder these movements struggle with truth and facts, often losing the ability to make decisions based on reality.The news is not certainly all rosy.Citizens of countries that have not experienced the blunders of autocratic government still yearn for the promises of a strong government — an able leadership with quick decision-making powers able to stifle opposition for the sake of economic progress for all.Democracy has a messy feedback loop that autocratic wannabes try to distort, suppressing truth and discourse to ensure control and power. Without proper feedback, authoritarian governments tend to finally, in their last grasp at power, resort to violence and oppression, strangling the feedback loop.Smart autocrats know this very well.Many successful autocratic governments can adjust policy by tolerating a degree of dissent and ensuring that the regime delivers results.Usually, core key groups keep autocrats in power, and technically, these groups can depose an autocratic leader for leadership failure. However, over time, like in China and Russia, these key groups weaken relative to the leader, and even this fairly concentrated feedback loop loses its grip.That was the premise of the Chinese and Russian leadership for many years.However, as has happened repeatedly, the feedback loop becomes an echo chamber, and poor policymaking soon leads to disastrous results.What beckons in

Options

2023, and do we have room for optimism?China would have learned some lessons, but would they be the right ones?China has often looked towards Singapore — as a guide to achieving economic goals without political liberalization. But Singapore is a democracy. It is at least, according to Freedom House, partly free.Also, it is unclear whether Singapore will remain successful if the democratic elements that ensure feedback are eroded. In other words, is China cherry-picking what it is learning from Singapore?Is Singapore successful because of autocratic rule or despite it? In 2020, the dominant party in Singapore won only 61.24% of the votes, despite having an overwhelming advantage. Would the Singapore ruling party resort to oppression and force if it starts to lose power?Even if the intellectual consensus is that the war in Ukraine is a disaster, would Putin change his mind?In Putin’s New Year message, he promised ultimate victory. The night before, Russia launched 20 cruise missiles into Ukraine, terrorizing the Ukrainian population on New Year’s eve, suggesting that things will remain the same in 2023.As there is no feedback mechanism, the odds of Russia or China pivoting remain small.Short of internal implosion, it is hard to see a fundamental shift in trajectory.What then?As Winston Churchill so eloquently put it:“Many forms of Government have been tried and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.….”Observing the experiments with autocratic leaders in the USA and Brazil and the trajectory of China and Russia, the importance of liberalism cannot be understated.Even within democratic nations, there are illiberal autocratic forces that threaten the very fabric of security, health, and all the good that a good government can achieve.</article></body>

People Have Fallen Out of Love with Authoritarianism

Liberalism creeps back

Trump’s supporters attacked the United States Capitol to stop the process of formalizing the victory of President Biden.

Supporters of Bolsonaro tried to set off a bomb to disrupt the inauguration of president-elect Lula da Silva.

While both failed, those violent attempts hint at the criminal and psychopathic elements within autocratic movements.

These attempts also hint at the authoritarians' propensity to resort to clumsy solutions.

Other authoritarian leaders are not doing well, with a series of failures in 2022.

Under Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) tried to contain Covid-19 with a “zero Covid” strategy that was intended to be a stop-gap measure.

Yet, the CCP did not pursue a comprehensive vaccination strategy during this time.

CCP created a surveillance state and stifled innovation. Distracted by politics to ensure control, they missed the housing affordability problem in China. They made housing developers and financiers rich, but created the conditions for a lifetime of housing insecurity for hundreds of millions of China people.

As MNCs diversify production away from China, youth unemployment in China reaches new highs and approaches 20%.

Undoing years of progress, instead of implementing liberalizing reforms that the middle class anxiously needs, the CCP vainly preaches a gospel of “common prosperity.”

Empty talk.

It was only after protests erupted across the country that the CCP relented on the zero-Covid policy.

Russia under Vladimir Putin has not fared better.

In a series of miscalculations — that most experts did not predict — the attempt to quickly subjugate Ukraine led, instead, to a prolonged confrontation and a more united Europe.

Sanctions imposed on Russia have crippled the economy. The severe lack of readiness meant that Russia had to default into a wartime government, spending more on the military and less on education and health care.

The incompetency of authoritarian movements and governments seems hard-wired. These movements appear not to favor mechanisms for self-reflection, feedback, or calibration—instead, suppression, blind loyalty, and the rule of force are preferred.

It is no wonder these movements struggle with truth and facts, often losing the ability to make decisions based on reality.

The news is not certainly all rosy.

Citizens of countries that have not experienced the blunders of autocratic government still yearn for the promises of a strong government — an able leadership with quick decision-making powers able to stifle opposition for the sake of economic progress for all.

Democracy has a messy feedback loop that autocratic wannabes try to distort, suppressing truth and discourse to ensure control and power. Without proper feedback, authoritarian governments tend to finally, in their last grasp at power, resort to violence and oppression, strangling the feedback loop.

Smart autocrats know this very well.

Many successful autocratic governments can adjust policy by tolerating a degree of dissent and ensuring that the regime delivers results.

Usually, core key groups keep autocrats in power, and technically, these groups can depose an autocratic leader for leadership failure. However, over time, like in China and Russia, these key groups weaken relative to the leader, and even this fairly concentrated feedback loop loses its grip.

That was the premise of the Chinese and Russian leadership for many years.

However, as has happened repeatedly, the feedback loop becomes an echo chamber, and poor policymaking soon leads to disastrous results.

What beckons in 2023, and do we have room for optimism?

China would have learned some lessons, but would they be the right ones?

China has often looked towards Singapore — as a guide to achieving economic goals without political liberalization. But Singapore is a democracy. It is at least, according to Freedom House, partly free.

Also, it is unclear whether Singapore will remain successful if the democratic elements that ensure feedback are eroded. In other words, is China cherry-picking what it is learning from Singapore?

Is Singapore successful because of autocratic rule or despite it? In 2020, the dominant party in Singapore won only 61.24% of the votes, despite having an overwhelming advantage. Would the Singapore ruling party resort to oppression and force if it starts to lose power?

Even if the intellectual consensus is that the war in Ukraine is a disaster, would Putin change his mind?

In Putin’s New Year message, he promised ultimate victory. The night before, Russia launched 20 cruise missiles into Ukraine, terrorizing the Ukrainian population on New Year’s eve, suggesting that things will remain the same in 2023.

As there is no feedback mechanism, the odds of Russia or China pivoting remain small.

Short of internal implosion, it is hard to see a fundamental shift in trajectory.

What then?

As Winston Churchill so eloquently put it:

“Many forms of Government have been tried and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.….”

Observing the experiments with autocratic leaders in the USA and Brazil and the trajectory of China and Russia, the importance of liberalism cannot be understated.

Even within democratic nations, there are illiberal autocratic forces that threaten the very fabric of security, health, and all the good that a good government can achieve.