Out-of-Place Hurricanes

Not just a tropical thang!

(Note: I am not a meteorologist. I am a weather enthusiast. The information I share here is my basic amateur understanding of weather and should not be confused with professional information or predictions.)

We think of hurricanes as being tropical beasts of the islands and far-south states, like my state of Florida. And, yes, that’s where we usually see hurricanes and other tropical storms, but if this year proves anything, it’s that tropical systems can hit places that are NOT tropical.

Remember Hurricane Hilary that visited Southern California in August? Yes, SoCal is warm and has lots of palm trees, but it has a Mediterranean climate, also called dry subtropical, not a tropical or humid subtropical one. What’s the difference?

Mediterranean climates are typically on the western edges of continents — like California — while humid subtropical and tropical climates are along eastern coastlines — like Florida.

Mediterranean climates have dry, hot summers and cool, wet winters. Humid subtropical and tropical climates are, well, more humid, often during most of the year, and have very wet summers and drier winters. They are also more likely to experience freezing and subfreezing temperatures in the winter. My area of Florida always has at least a few days of freezing temperatures every winter.

Tropical systems may travel up the eastern coastline, maintaining their tropical status well into the Mid-Atlantic States — think Maryland, New Jersey, New York. Remember Hurricane Sandy that hit New York City in 2012, causing 53 deaths?

At this moment, we have Category Three Hurricane Lee churning near Bermuda in the Atlantic, with New England in his sights.

As Lee moves northward, he’ll weaken in the cooler waters. BUT, Lee is so large that hurricane-force winds extend over 100 miles from his center and winds reaching tropical storm force extend over 250 miles.

Current predictions have Lee making landfall in Maine, most likely around Bar Harbor. Lee will not be a hurricane or even a tropical storm by then but will likely be a subtropical system. Still, Maine could experience tropical storm-force gusts (39 to 73 mph / 34 to 63 knots) and extensive rainfall, not only in Maine but all along the New England coast.

New England had flooding rains earlier this week, and heavy storms are predicted for today and tomorrow. The ground is saturated. Rain from Lee is sure to cause severe flooding in areas. Two to three inches are predicted for Massachusetts and more than five inches are possible for Maine. As I’ve said before, Florida can handle high rain totals, but most other places cannot, especially when the soil is already waterlogged.

Besides his effect on New England, Lee is already causing rip currents and high surf along the Eastern Coast. Current waves at Lee’s center are 45 to 50 miles high! Waves heights for New England could be 10 to 15 miles.

What else is happening in the tropics? There is Category One Hurricane Margot that poses no threat to land and will soon weaken. Next, there’s Invest 97L off the coast of Africa. There was also an Invest 98L, but it merged with 97L, which has a 50% chance of developing into a tropical system, the first step to becoming a hurricane. Although it’s too soon for accurate predictions, current models have 97L following Lee’s path.

The eight-week period from mid-August to mid-October is the peak period for hurricanes. Eight-seven percent of Cat 1 and Cat 2 storms and 96% of Cat 3, 4, and 5 storms form during those eight weeks.

And guess what? We are smack dab in the middle of those eight weeks.

© Dennett 2023