Our First Fugitive Ex-President?
“Maybe I’ll have to leave the country, I don’t know.”
At a recent campaign rally, Mr. Trump mused about the possibility of losing the election. Of course, he focused on the consequences for himself, rather than expressing concern for the country, his party, or his followers. His words titillated our jaded press, both because he appeared to acknowledge the likelihood of his losing the election, and because he could become the first fugitive ex-president.
I’m surprised that the president still retains the ability to surprise others with his comments. To me, the only really shocking thing he could say would be “I spent yesterday reading up on this point of constitutional law, and on further reflection, I agree with my opponents that I have made an egregious mistake, for which I must apologize.” Research, thoughtfulness, comprehension, respect, acceptance of guilt, atonement, and decorum on the part of Mr. Trump would astonish us. Cutting and running, not so much.
I’ve been discussing the likelihood of Fugitive Trump for the last few years with friends. We even have a pool, placing bets on whether Moscow, Riyadh, or Pyongyang will welcome him. His open discussion of fleeing the country comes not as a departure from his previous behavior, but as an anticipated denouement to his entire career.
Trump has both narcissism and ADHD
The focus on Trump’s narcissism has blinded many pundits to his ADHD, despite the fact that they constantly describe his ADHD-driven behavior. The president fails to plan, makes impulsive decisions, and executes the decisions he does make in haphazard, inconsistent ways. He ignores social norms, is often surprised when people hold him accountable for past actions, and is constantly fidgeting and restless. These are hallmarks of ADHD, not narcissism.
When faced by daunting challenges, many people with ADHD are prone to just walking away, because putting in concentrated and sustained effort to overcome the problem can be so daunting for their brains. Trump has a rich history of walking away from problems: several bankruptcies; numerous failed luxury projects; the debacle of Trump University; two marriages, and dozens of affairs. His constant flurry of activity in new endeavors (including his 2016 run for president) distracts himself and his audience from his pattern of walking away from failure.
This is a man who defended losing millions of dollars amidst a robust economy as a sign that he was a brilliant businessman, because he avoided paying taxes.
The discussion of how Trump might exit the presidency has preceded exploration of what he might do once he has left. The cabinet officers, published political scientists, and other pundits who proclaimed that Trump would never leave office willingly, all focused on his narcissism, and ignored his ADHD.
These commentaries began in Trump’s first year in office, when he had already accumulated mountains of evidence establishing that he had violated election finance rules, illegally cooperated with foreign powers, had enriched himself from office, and faced serious tax and sexual harassment issues. The likelihood of Trump’s impeachment drew comparisons to Nixon, who had resigned rather than face this shame. The consensus was that a man as narcissistic as Trump would never resign from office.
People with ADHD commonly walk away from disaster
Trump’s combination of ADHD and narcissism encourages him to walk away from disasters, and to still label himself a success while doing so. This is a man who defended losing millions of dollars amidst a robust economy as a sign that he was a brilliant businessman, because he avoided paying taxes. This is a man who believes he is irresistible to women despite all those who have spurned him. A full year before he ever began uttering similar phrases, I had predicted that Trump would be able to walk away from the presidency because he would claim that he had “done more than any other president in just (however many) months in office”. Now he employs this false assertion constantly in campaign rallies and other speeches.
The risk of Trump leaving office prematurely remains even now, and will continue through the inauguration of his successor. Trump would have no compunction about departing at such a late date, because he has no loyalty to his party, to the presidency or to the American people. Quitting would not be a blow to his ego, because he would just proclaim “Mission Accomplished”, and delight in the media attention as he walked away. He would declare in aggrieved tones that the mainstream press, the Democrats, the deep state Republicans, were all so nasty, so unfair, and were the ones truly responsible for his departure.
While I can imagine Trump leaving office in this fashion, it creates the problem of a post-presidency. Regardless of how he might try to pardon himself, or arrange deals with Pence or others, he can’t avoid a multitude of serious charges in state courts, particularly New York. While scenarios for his abandoning the presidency are plausible, serving jail time would be inconceivable for Trump. Although he might try to spin it again as the fault of his enemies, this would be too harsh a rejection for him to dismiss.
Trump couldn’t tolerate being restrained
Furthermore, Trump has lived his life without restraint, both because of his ADHD-driven restlessness and his narcissism. He has a visceral hatred for his behavior to be constrained or restricted. He will not be held back by historical precedents, laws, social norms, or even medical advice. While many of his foes might exult to see Trump in jail, can they really conjure such a realistic scene of this in their minds?
We’ve had political fugitives in the past
Our nation did have a fugitive ex-Vice President. Aaron Burr fled to Europe, not for killing Hamilton in a duel, but for engaging in treasonous political conspiracies following his departure from office. Nixon, after his Watergate disgrace, went into internal exile in California for a year. Andrew Johnson, following his impeachment, remained involved in politics and felt that his subsequent election to the Senate vindicated his service as president. Bill Clinton never really left the scene. Donald Trump can break new ground by being the first fugitive ex-president.
We live in interesting times. Whatever Mr. Trump does in the months ahead, we can be sure that both narcissism and ADHD will shape his actions. He will make decisions impulsively. He will not think through the consequences. He will not consult people who know more about the situations he is dealing with. He will not acknowledge any weakness or imperfections. He is not likely to stay in this country, at risk for arrest and jail time.
Bon voyage, Mr. Trump!
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