Geopolitics

Operation ‘Prosperity Guardian’ Starts In The Red Sea

Houthi missiles and drones put a cork in the Red Sea Trade bottleneck, but other nations act quickly with joint naval task force to keep it open. However, European prices can only go up as ships divert around the Cape of Good Hope adding at least 20 days to transport schedules

On 18 December 2023, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin announced the start of the “Prosperity Guardian” operation against the Houthi rebels in Yemen.

Combined Task Force 153, under Combined Maritime Forces, will control the vessels of the operation, which currently includes HMS Diamond, HMS Lancaster, HMS Chiddingfold, HMS Middleton, HMS Bangor, RFA Cardigan Bay, IFS Virginio Fasan, three U.S. destroyers, and a French warship. Other ships are expected to join.

Led by the United States, Operation Prosperity Guardian brings together a coalition of nine countries: Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles, Spain, and the United Kingdom. Each nation contributes naval assets, including warships, patrol boats, and helicopters, to bolster security in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Background

The Houthi rebels in Yemen have carried out a series of missile and drone attacks on commercial ships transiting the Red Sea in recent weeks, raising concerns about the safety of a vital global trade route.

US naval vessels have shot down several drones and missiles.

The Houthis have also fired ballistic missiles aimed at Israel, which led to the first known exo-atmospheric interception of a ballistic missile by an Israeli Arrow 3 missile.

Who are the Houthis?

Houthis, a Zaidi Shia Muslim movement in Yemen, rose in the ’90s, initially opposing Yemeni president Saleh’s policies. They grew influential, capturing Sana’a in 2014 and sparking a civil war with the internationally recognized government. Now controlling much of northern Yemen, Houthis face accusations of human rights abuses and are labelled a terrorist group by many countries.

They justify their actions as fighting for economic and political reform against foreign interference. While a truce currently holds, tensions remain high as Houthi missile attacks on Red Sea shipping raise concerns about wider regional conflict.

The proxy sides

Saudi Arabia leads a coalition of countries, including the United Arab Emirates, that actively opposes the Houthis. This coalition has been engaged in a military campaign against the Houthis since 2015, supporting the internationally recognised government of Yemen. There have been several assertions of Saudi Arabian war crimes in their bombing of targets in Yemen. This side generally follows the Sunni interpretation of Islam.

Iran has been accused of providing support to the Houthis, including arms, training, and financial assistance. However, the extent and nature of this support is often disputed. There is little doubt that the drones and missiles that the Houthis are using originate in Iran. Iran follows the Shia interpretation of Islam.

It’s out of scope for this story to get into the reasons why two different interpretations of Islam lead to war but it seems absolutely crazy to me. The 1980–88 Iraq-Iran War cost 500,000 lives, pointlessly.

Recent shipping attacks

Since the headline graphic was produced, there have been several other attacks.

• Al-Jasrah (Liberian-flagged container ship): Struck by a projectile believed to be a drone on Friday, December 15, 2023, causing a fire but no injuries. This attack led major shipping companies Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to temporarily suspend their Red Sea operations.
• MV Yanis (Greek-owned bulk carrier): Hit by a missile on Sunday, December 17, 2023, causing minor damage but no injuries. This attack coincided with other missile strikes on two other vessels, prompting international condemnation and calls for a de-escalation.
• MSC Clara (Panama-flagged container ship): Targeted by a drone attack on Monday, December 18, 2023, according to the Houthis. The vessel’s owner denies the attack, citing no damage or injuries. This incident highlights the challenge of verifying information in maritime attacks.
• Swan Atlantic (Norwegian-owned cargo ship): Struck by an unidentified object on Monday, December 18, 2023, according to the ship’s owner. No injuries were reported. This attack further underscores the growing frequency and variety of weapons used by the Houthis.

Ship tracking sites are showing that many commercial vessels are altering course to avoid the Red Sea and Suez Canal passage because of the dangers and the fact that their insurance cover is being withdrawn due to the hostilities. Diverting to the route around the Cape of Good Hope adds over 9,000 miles to the voyage to northwest Europe and typically 21 days to the voyage. And it adds a huge amount to the transport costs.

Challenges

Organising such a large fleet will be challenging. It’s almost certain that it will be commanded by a US naval officer. Establishing rules of engagement, communications and chains of command will take some time. Those countries which are members of NATO will have off-the-shelf plans for such operations, but every operation is different so plans and protocols will have to be modified.

Add in countries such as the Seychelles and one wonders whether it will ever gel properly.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia are notably absent from the listed participants, although the effort may include several nations who have opted to conceal their involvement. Israel is not listed either and it is certainly possible that those three counties are participating.

The effectiveness of ‘Prosperity Guardian’ is hugely important to Egypt.

10% of the world’s marine trade passes through the Suez Canal and Egypt derives a huge income from the Canal transit business. In the 2022–23 fiscal year, the Suez Canal generated a record US$9.4 billion in revenue for Egypt. This represented a 17.5% increase year on year. The Bab-el-Mandeb (‘Gate of Tears’) is the southern gateway to that revenue stream. That revenue represents over 5% of Egypt’s GDP.

Saudi Arabia has several major oil ports (e.g. Jeddah and Yanbu) on the Red Sea and would not want shipping interrupted. The largest tankers have to transit the Bab-el-Mandeb but smaller tankers could safely go north through the Suez Canal out of range of Houthi missiles.

Present power

The above graphic purportedly illustrates the naval vessels in the region. Note the Chinese and Iranian ships. It does not record any US submarines in the Red Sea.

Israel has submarines in the Red Sea, as well as advanced ‘Saar 6' corvettes.

Unlike the Straits of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf, the Bab-el-Mandeb is deep enough for submarines safely to transit submerged — 150 metres versus 65 metres, approximately. When the US sent USS Florida into the Gulf on the 6 November, it travelled on the surface and was publicised. We do not know what submarine assets the US has sent into the Red Sea and probably never will.

Putin’s plan

This escalation of the problem with the Houthis is surely just another part of Putin’s plan to divert the West and stretch its resources, test the resilience of electorates. He’s formed an axis of evil with Iran, North Korea and China. And there’s worse to come. China’s activity in the South China sea is ramping up against the Philippines and Taiwan; North Korea has launched two missiles in the last couple of weeks — unprecedented. Just watch it develop in the Far East.

I’ve taken my boat through the Panama Canal, a fascinating experience, but I’m certain I’ll never take it through the Suez Canal. Such is life.

More context:

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