Intelligence Gathering

Open-Source Intelligence — an Emergent Model in Ukraine

The whos, hows and whens of emergent information gathering systems in geopolitics, Ukraine and warfare. It’s not all secret these days is it when we can all look at satellite photographs of North Korean Nuclear facilities?

But maybe we’re not seeing it all? Perhaps what you see is not what you get.

Looks like shit, and it is — check the photo.

Did you ever hear of open book accounting in business? Seller and customer agree the product/service specification, then the profit margin. From that point on all accounting is transparent. It’s a great idea, but there’s some fiddling for sure.

Open source intelligence is a bit like that, but there are drawbacks.

And it seems to me that a new model is emerging in the Russia-Ukraine war.

What is Open Source Intelligence?

Open source intelligence (OSINT) is the process of collecting, analyzing and making use of publicly available information. It can be used by businesses, governments and individuals to gain insights into what is happening in the world around them.

There are a number of different ways to collect OSINT, including using search engines, social media sites, news websites, website scraping and forums. That’s all without hacking, which falls outside the definition of OSINT.

Once the information has been collected, it can be analyzed to identify trends, patterns or insights that would otherwise be hidden. This analysis can be used for a variety of purposes, such as understanding consumer behavior, tracking down criminals or uncovering political corruption. Or in geopolitics and warfare.

Geopolitics and OSINT

In geopolitics, open source intelligence (OSINT) is the collection and analysis of publicly available data from all sorts of sources.

It’s for passive as well as active use— we saw this recently in Ukraine as the US in particular issued images of Russian forces accretion in Belarus, and Russia’s borders with Ukraine during several months leading up to the invasion. The intention was to gain diplomatic support and deter Putin.

And, if you see a satellite picture from, say, Maxar Technologies, then you can be sure that’s probably been filtered through the CIA or US State Department first. It may be ‘open’, but the US government doesn’t want the other side to know precisely how good the camera technology and resolution is and what other non-visible frequencies they’re imaging. After all, Maxar have government contracts.

And also there is the question ‘Are we really seeing what we’re being told we’re seeing?’ Disinformation, perhaps? Building a diplomatic case perhaps — I mean to argue, not carry. Well maybe that too.

That’s just my cynical opinion, of course, but I’m sure that the truth about it is a secret.

Open source organisations

Open source intelligence organisations include groups such as Oryx. Recently they have been collating hard data on battlefield, naval and aircraft losses in the Russia-Ukraine war. They are collating and validating data which has been provided by people on the ground, often using geo-tagged and datestamped video securely channeled through sites such as Telegram and Twitter. They derive at least some of their funding through Patreon and their Ukraine data from Joe Public and Ukraine Defence Forces.

IntelTechniques is also a popular source of information on OSINT, providing tutorials and resources on how to collect and use this type of intelligence, although this is slanted more towards individuals and cyber security.

And companies like Maxar selectively release intelligence data into the public domain.

OSINT in the Russia Ukraine War

Open source intelligence is playing an increasingly important role in the Ukrainian conflict, as all sides seek to gain an advantage through social media and other online channels.

The war in Ukraine has been characterized by a heavy use of OSINT, with all sides using it to gather information about their opponents and disseminate propaganda. This has led to the development of a number of innovative OSINT tools and techniques, which are being used by both state and non-state actors.

State actors such as the Ukrainian government and the Russian military have made extensive use of OSINT, employing dedicated teams of analysts to trawl social media for information about their opponents. They have also used automated tools to monitor social media activity and identify potential targets for information operations.

Non-state actors, such as the pro-Russian separatist groups in eastern Ukraine, have also made use of OSINT, although their capabilities are more limited. They have used social media to disseminate propaganda and to rally support for their cause.

Do it yourself OSINT

Yes, there are some DIY tools and services available that can be used by individuals and businesses of all sizes.

One popular OSINT tool is Maltego (free for non-commercial use, no I’m not affiliated), which is a data mining tool that can be used to collect and analyze public information. Another popular tool is Recon-ng, which is a web reconnaissance tool that can be used to gather data about websites and domain names.

There are also a number of paid OSINT services available, such as those offered by companies like Recorded Future or Source Intelligence. These companies offer access to their databases of public information, which can be used to carry out research and analysis.

So, if you’re planning to go to war, you’ve got a head start…

Conclusions

Any OSINT that smells of government has to be filtered carefully using commonsense and cynicism (recommended).

However, the public data-gathering overlaid with military reporting OSINT model which seems to be evolving in Ukraine is interesting, albeit smelly.

But there is another side to it:

Sometimes is can be just too open, depending of course, whose side you’re on.

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