On Thin Ice: Antarctica is Warming Much Faster than Predicted

The Emperor Penguin might be taking the first hit, but far-reaching consequences know no geographical, political, or societal distinctions

Some time ago, a friend asked me if I believed in infinity. It was clear to me: I’ve always thought of infinity as walking through Antarctic glaciers, the repetitive and overwhelming whiteness of the landscapes, and the feeling of walking in circles.

Well, these days, I had to reconsider my answer. Infinity is the never-ending rain we’ve been having here in Northern Patagonia since May. Stats from the National Meteorological Service (SMN) have my back. From having 1:1 precipitating/dry winter days, this year, we’ve had 9:1 precipitating/dry days. My girlfriend even had Vitamin D deficiency in her last blood exam from lack of sunshine. In mid-July, 60 days from the spring equinox, we were already at last winter’s precipitation total, a winter season for the books. You would expect record snow from all this precipitation. Me too. Snow is much prettier and more fun than dirt.

The problem is it’s been a humid AND hot winter. It’s been all rain, street potholes, collapsed drains and flooded gardens. Piers are disappearing from the shores, but that might be a mirage of what’s to come in summer: water reserves in the mountains are already thin.

And this situation is just a free sample of what is happening further south in Antarctica. Reports from July 30th, 2023, revealed that Antarctica lost a mass of ice the size of my country, Argentina, the 8th largest country in the world. And this was just an upcoming trend.

A new study of ice core records found that Antarctica is likely warming at almost twice the rate of the rest of the world, much faster than models predicted. This has far-reaching implications, from global sea level rise to wildlife ecosystem alterations.

When Science Speaks Volumes

Climate change is a cumulative problem that knows no geographical, political, or societal limits. In a world where the consequences of global warming are felt everywhere, Antarctica, often considered remote and distant, is now bearing witness to an undeniable footprint.

Scientists have long speculated that polar regions would warm faster than the rest of the planet, a phenomenon known as polar amplification. While this has been observed in the Arctic, which has warmed nearly four times faster than the global average over the past four decades, the South Pole remained an enigma.

Antarctica lags behind in climate data, with only 23 weather stations and records spanning just 50 years. By contrast, Europe, 25% smaller, boasts 26,321 stations with centuries of data.

Two of them — the South Pole and Vostok stations — have indicated substantial warming at similar rates in the Arctic. But these have not been matched with continental-scale temperature reconstructions.

To overcome this limitation, scientists turned to ice cores, offering a glimpse into Antarctica’s climate history over nearly a million years. The Iso2k research program meticulously collected a database of 78 ice cores. They were drilled out of ice sheets and glaciers and provided a cross-section of accumulated snow compacted over thousands of years, enabling the reconstruction of temperature changes. Using dynamical system theory, researchers revealed that Antarctica’s warming rate far exceeds global averages and climate models’ predictions.

“The current warming in Antarctica is between 0.22 and 0.32°C per decade — outside the bounds of the continent’s natural variability over the last 1,000 years,” emphasizes the study.

This is almost twice as strong as global warming, estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at 0.14–0.18 °C per decade. It is also 20–50% larger than the estimates from the climate models used to produce the IPCC reports.

“It is extremely concerning to see such significant warming in Antarctica, beyond natural variability,” said Dr. Mathieu Casado, lead author of the study.

The Impacts: Beneath the Surface of Antarctica’s Warming Polar amplification

Why are the Earth’s poles experiencing such accelerated warming? The answer lies in a phenomenon known as “polar amplification,” driven by factors unique to these regions. The temperature increase at high latitudes outpaces the global average, setting off a cascade of consequences.

One crucial element is the reflectivity, or ice-albedo feedback. Antarctica’s vast ice sheets reflect solar energy back into space, helping to cool the planet. As sea ice disappears, darker surfaces and ocean waters take their place, absorbing more heat and further accelerating global warming.

Even if the warmer temperatures remain below freezing, as is often the case in Antarctica, changing temperatures and humidity can affect the characteristics of snow grains. This snow “metamorphism” can change its albedo and, thus, how much sunlight it reflects.

The consequences of Antarctica’s accelerated warming are profound. The loss of ice shelves can lead to an accelerated ice flow from the land into the ocean, with implications for global ocean circulation, marine ecosystems, and sea level rise are dire.

Antarctica’s ice loss contributes to approximately 0.6 millimeters of global sea-level rise annually. But to put into perspective just how much ice is there: if all of Antarctica’s ice were to melt, it would lead to a staggering 57 meters (187 feet) of sea-level rise, submerging coastal cities worldwide. And the study evidences that climate models underestimate not only the amplitude of global warming but also that of natural variability in Antarctica. This discrepancy raises concerns about predictions of future sea level rise, a critical issue for low-lying coastal areas.

The repercussions of this warming are far-reaching and unsettling.

The Emperor Takes the First Hit

Beyond data lies an environment full of wildlife. And nothing speaks louder than the story of thousands of emperor penguin chicks lost to a catastrophic breeding failure in late 2022, according to research.

This unprecedented event unfolded in the Bellingshausen Sea, marking the first time multiple colonies across a vast region simultaneously failed to breed. Analysis of satellite images showed the break-up of usually stable sea ice, and many parts had near-total loss. This led to the disappearance of the colonies, with an estimated 7,000 chicks dead: if they dived in the water, they drowned; if they got back onto the ice, they froze because they didn’t have their waterproof feathers at that stage.

As Dr. Peter Fretwell, lead author of the research, reflects, “It’s a grim story. I was shocked. It’s very hard to think of these cute fluffy chicks dying in large numbers.”

Scientists have said emperor penguins face an uncertain future under global heating because they rely on sea ice, which is projected to decline as the world’s oceans heat up. About 30% of Antarctica’s known 62 emperor penguin colonies have been affected by partial or total sea ice loss since 2018. Global heating is considered their main long-term threat, with projections that by 2100, about 90% of colonies could be so small that they are essentially extinct.

It’s Time to Close the Tap

It’s been 33 years since the first IPCC report on climate change. Three-plus decades of climate negotiations and disappointment: emissions soaring, climate denial, on-paper optimism, and ‘net zero, but not in my term’ speeches.

This persistent retreat has led to more intricate forms of ‘mitigation denial.’ We now bank on speculative ‘negative emissions’ solutions — still ineffective and may-not-even-fix climate change carbon-sucking tech and simplistic ‘nature-based solutions,’ paying poorer nations to cut emissions. These smoke screens aim to ‘offset’ responsibility for immediate emission cuts.

Now, the northern summer of 2023 is officially the hottest on record, pushing global sea temperatures to record highs and disrupting ocean ecosystems. Over 3.8 billion people — almost half the world — felt the wrath of human-induced extreme heat between June and August.

You don’t grab buckets or towels when your bathtub overflows, ignoring or denying the problem. You turn off the tap. Climate change isn’t a future problem; it’s here. And you might think it won’t affect you, but as temperatures climb, more will face such dire choices. The question isn’t if but when.

So, where’s the concern for communities hit hardest, facing devastating choices — food, roof, life? Where’s the outcry for species facing extinction or the loss of rich biodiversity to monocropped wastelands? What about our future?

Antarctica’s struggle isn’t a far-off concern; it’s a glaring reminder that climate change is here and spares no one place on Earth.

As Fretwell noted, it’s a devastating reality that will worsen before improving, following our current trajectory.

How bad it gets is only up to us.

Thank you for your thorough reading and support!

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