avatarPaul Pallaghy, PhD

Summarize

Tesla doubt is completely irrational. Just when the tech is hitting *alien* level

I seriously don’t care much about the short-term Tesla share price plunges one bit.

Except, positively, that it makes the stock easier to buy. And, more importantly, negatively, what this historically crazy naysaying signals to potential adopters of these technologies.

So, despite record deliveries, and Model Y as top selling vehicle of the year, Tesla stock is down 12% overnight – and around 30% recently – because . . what?

Tesla’s growth is down compared to years when the company was majorly ramping affordable new vehicles? And Musk warns of a slower 2024 due to interest rates?

Really? So what?

Model Y was literally the top selling car of the year. Of any kind. When everyone thought this was a pipe dream.

And simultaneously, Tesla has made 3 announcements and releases that opens the door to multiple medium and long term x3 opportunities for the stock.

1. The end-to-end neural network AI FSD beta version 12 was released to non-staff beta testers.

And now achieves regular kerb-to-kerb intervention-free drives as viewable on YouTube. (Arrival-based parking at kerbs and carparks had not been previously demonstrated).

I predict submission for regulatory approval in early 2025. Approval in some jurisdictions by end 2025 with some luck?

2. Tesla plans to ship Optimus bot units, now highly graceful and dexterous, during late 2025.

This is a stunning aspiration.

This is the first time since having prototypes that Tesla has talked release dates.

Androids will undoubtedly revolutionize manufacturing, construction, agriculture and domestics, ushering in GDP x2–10 IMO.

Regulatory approval will be much easier than FSD IMO because androids are much slower and lighter and, initially, isolatable, even if not entirely.

3. Tesla hopes to begin manufacturing ‘Model 2’ ‘half-price’ cars during late 2025.

This will get Tesla growth skyrocketing again during 2026.

Stock predictions?

I’m no stock astrologist (and this is NOT advice!) but based on these likely tech timelines, TSLA should start a climb to 3x-ish during 2025 and get there by late 2026.

Maybe more.

10–20x by 2030 to hit an up to $10T valuation IMO. As Optimus starts to kill.

In 2024?

2024 couid be a dud.

But great Optimus demos, FSD progress or a successful CyberTruck ramp could conceivably 2x the stock during 2024, but some of that may already be built into the price.

Yet 2024 could indeed be a dud. Especially if Tesla has to cut prices again. I’m not sure when we see BYD enter the US non-bus auto market. Or what the likely tariff schedule will be by then.

2025 we’ll get maybe 2x boost for almost sure IMO as those three ramps begin occurring. But 2026 will be awesome, 3x or more from today’s $0.6T valuation.

And here’s to continued energy sector growth.

If more analysts and investors had just the slightest inklings of a sane medium-term perspective, they’d be talking up huge benefits to humankind, the planet . . and stock price x3 within 3 years . .

. . rather than bearish trashing of the company and its stock and CEO.

Most of what we read in the mainstream media about Tesla is seriously idiotic short-term-ism.

Who cares about this next year’s average profit margin or exact delivery count? When you’ve got 3x3x3 upsides only a few years away.

Only stock gamblers.

Not true investors and certainly not altruists wanting the best for humanity and the planet.

Tesla
Innovation
Technology
Investing
Artificial Intelligence
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