“A nation that needs military support from North Korea and Iran is not a nation that is losing a war, this is a nation that is failing.”
North Korea sent up to 3 million shells in 6700 containers to Russia. This won’t suffice to prevent Russian ammo shortages
Russia’s allies share a common denominator. Iran and North Korea are cash poor, and both struggle to keep the lights on
Russia has recently strengthened its ties with North Korea. The media has overhyped this unholy matrimony. This isn’t a grandiose move by Russia. It’s desperation. As always, the devil is in the details.
Russia requires assistance from a nation of 24 million people with a GDP of 18 billion USD to conduct its barbaric, colonial war
This is a massive embarrassment for the self-proclaimed second strongest army in the world. Additionally, Russia has acquired missiles from North Korea and Iran. Ukraine couldn’t fight without its allies. Russia couldn’t fight without its autocratic collaborators either.
The reliance on rail logistics to transport these shells is another weak point. There are 1000s of kilometers of unguarded railway track.
“The Russians have already imported one and a half million ammunitions from the DPRK. But these ammunition are from the 70s and 80s.
Half of them do not work there, and the rest need to be restored or checked before use.” Major General Vadym Skibitsky, Ukrainian intelligence, Interfax Ukraine
Russia lacks the production capacity to sustain their war effort
Ukrainian military officials claim that half of these shells are duds. There are many other issues with these shells which are connected to shelf life, storage and artillery piece maintenance.
Dictators prepare for war all the time. In a war of stockpiles, Russia and its allies of convenience enjoy an advantage. In a war of industries, Russia does not.
The extractive Russian empire has already scavenged Belarus and other former allies of the Soviet Union
When an empire dies, it attempts to drag the brands of its civilization down with it. Putin is drowning. To save himself, he is willing to drag Russia down with him.
Russia’s army is de-mechanizing. Russia undergoes a process of reverse industrialization
The Russians wouldn’t ask North Korea for help if they had enough shells. Russia artillery heavy doctrine needs mass artillery fire to fight its wars. Russia’s firing rate dropped from 60.000 per day early in the war, to roughly 10 to 20.000 per day.
Russia will likely be artillery barrel life constrained. Russia seems happy to push to their lifespan. Russia may use up to 12 barrels per day across the entire front line.
Russia would need around 7.5 million shells a year to keep up the current rate of fire. Right now, they are producing roughly 2.5 million shells a year.
Western experts state that Russia’s consumption outstrips its production. Russia can only sustain this war by digging ever deeper into its dwindling stockpiles
Estonian intelligence assumed that Russia has large production capacities, but it won’t be enough to meet its demand.
Ukraine’s allies are expanding their own production capacity. Ukraine will receive 800.000 155 mm shells. A Czech initiative will ensure their delivery in a couple of weeks.
Shells are low tech. The combined Western military production capacity will bury Russia in production within the next 24 months.
There is more to winning an industrial war than producing 155 mm shells. Among other things, Ukraine needs a steady supply of missiles, rocket artillery, and 122 mm mortar shells.
Western doctrine prefers accuracy over quantity and point fire over areal bombardments
The EU has placed its first orders for a joint procurement in October last year. From there, it takes another 6 to 9 months upon delivery. This means the production is being ramped up as we speak.
The US has transferred nearly 4 million artillery shells of various types and calibers since the start of the war, from US stockpiles.
The EU has taken a lot of shells from European stockpiles. Stockpiles won’t win this war of attrition. The EU is poised to double its 155 mm shell production in 2024.
Who will win a war of industries in the medium to long term?
The 60-plus trillion dollar Western behemoth? Or Russia and its cash poor allies?
Time is working against Russia. Western industrial might will bury Russia in production. A lack of moral courage, firmness in character, and political will have prevented firm action thus far. The European giant is awakening. Macron is already awake. He has realised that there is no appeasing this maniac. Russian aggression must be met with force and with terrible resolve.
“We are surely approaching a moment for Europe in which it will be necessary not to be cowards,” Emmanuel Macron
The North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un has referred to the term "New Cold War" recently
Russia might help NK with its KN-23 “Iskander” class missile program, space technology, circumventing sanctions, and during UN votes. This “alliance” will likely benefit NK more than Russia.
An impending food crisis may also be behind the decision to aid Russia
North Korea’s regime prioritizes spending money on its military and on luxury goods for the elites. Struggling to feed, the 26 million North Koreans would stretch the regime’s limited resources even further.
North Korea suffers from regular and extensive power outages due to its poor electricity infrastructure
Being one of the most sanctioned countries on the planet adds to the problem. North Korea is on rank 171 of the corruption index. Other Russian allies, namely Venezuela and Syria, rank even lower.
Can NK aid turn the tide?
Let’s take a look at their army to answer that question. The NK armed forces are infantry based. China provides NK with oil, fuel, and modern technology. Its other allies are Venezuela, Iran, and Russia.
Russia has supplied NK with 1000 tons of wheat and flour recently. North Korea has been working on a nuclear weapon’s program. NK likely possesses in between 67 and 118 nukes.
Communist NK spends 24 percent of its GDP on its military. Ukraine plans to spend 21 percent of its GDP on defense in 2024
The North Korean state doctrine is: military first. One out of three dollars is pumped into the military in some way. It is foolish to either under and overestimate North Korea.
The North Korean peoples liberation army or KPA has 1 to 1.4 million men of active personnel
Additionally, there are 600.000 to 7.7 million men in reserve and another 200.000 who serve as security forces. The KPA has different branches. The ground force, navy, an air force, strategic forces, reserve paramilitary forces, and its security forces.
The NK forces field very old Mig29 aircraft, old rifles, and old T62
There are likely over 10.000 underground facilities such as tunnels and command centers in North Korea.
North Korea would likely have 1 or 2 months' worth of supplies in a conflict with South Korea
The real strength of this army is its roughly 14.000 artillery pieces. NK has 8,500 field artillery pieces, 5,100 multiple rocket launchers of short and medium range.
North Korea maintains nearly 6,000 artillery systems within firing range of South Korean cities. The numbers could be even higher or also lower. It is hard to verify them.
The North Koreans, like the Russians are holding on to everything
The U.S. Department of Defense reported in 2012 that North Korea had fewer than 200 long range missile launchers. North Korea has some 10,000 mortars of different types and origins in its inventory. It is hard to assess how many pieces of each type exist.
NK seems to be selling equipment from Soviet times back to Russia at a hefty premium
Or rather, NK sells what is still salvageable from these stockpiles. We can’t know how much of each artillery type exists.
I compiled a list of the different types that NK has in its inventory.
NK self propelled and towed artillery
- M1937, 152 mm gun produced until 1946
2. Juche-po, 152 mm gun M-1974
3. M 1975, 130 mm gun. Both aren’t in service
4. Juche Po, 170 mm howitzer, a large self propelled piece of equipment
5. M 1985, an artillery system that was first seen in use in 1955
6. M 1981, 122 mm self propelled gun that was in production from 1939 to 1955
7. M1991, 152 mm self propelled gun
8. M 1992 120 mm self propelled combination gun
9. M 1992 122 mm self propelled gun
10. SPH Model 107, 155 mm
The Model 107 is a modern piece with a range of over 40 kilometers. The chassis is based on T-72 tanks. I don’t think those would be send to Russia. That would strengthen its main rival, South Korea.
11. Tokchon artillery, 100mm up to 122mm self-propelled gun which was produced from the 1970s to the 1980s.
12. The S23, 180 mm gun is the largest caliber in NK’s arsenal. It was developed in the 1950s and was first used in 1955
Most of this gear is 60 70 or even 80 years old. It is anybody’s guess how well these weapons were stored, oiled, and maintained.
NK rocket artillery
- BM21, Grad 122 mm domestically produced version
2. RM 70, domestically produced multiple rocket launchers
3. M1985, and M 1991 rocket launchers. Around 200 are in active service
4. Type 1963, around 400 in storage
5. BM 24, around 400 in storage. The delivery year was 1955
6. BMD, 20, around 200. Delivered by the Soviet Union in the 1950s
7. KN09: 300 mm guided rocket launcher (estimated 10 pieces in 2016)
8. KN 15, is currently in development with improved range
North Korea is believed to have tens of millions of artillery rounds and rockets. They’ve been maniacally hoarding those
The Jucheist 170 mm caliber shells are unique and only used by NK. Many others are very old and thus unreliable. Somewhat counterintuitively, rockets take the aging process better than artillery shells.
The charges of NK shells are really bad
At least half of the shells will cause more damage to the handlers and the barrel itself than to anyone else.
The hit rate seems to be something like 10, 15, or 20 percent, while it should be at a minimum of 60 percent
Russia’s worn-out 152 mm artillery systems will be able to hit everything with these shells. Including their own trenches and the staging areas a couple of kilometers behind the frontlines.
Many of them will overshoot the target and critically reduce the barrel life due to overpressure
In the 2010 engagement of Yeonpyeong, around one-third of the shells fired had ended up at the sea being either far too short or too long. And 20 percent were duds.
If Russia wants to go on another major offensive, they will likely need 30k shells a day or even more to achieve any effect
Planning an offensive with these North Korean shells is like playing Russian mortar roulette. The poor quality of the gunpowder makes them only usable when accuracy and heap accuracy are of the least importance.
These old shells from the 1970s and 1980s will have less impact than Russia would hope for. The number of duds seems to be fluctuating. This isn’t surprising. NK won’t send us an inventory list.
It is prudent to assume that half of these NK shells are trash. C. Snow
Summary and Conclusion
Ernest Hemingway once asked a man: How did you go bankrupt? The man answered: First gradually and then very quickly
In 2023, North Korea began supplying Russia with 152 mm artillery shells.
Relying on NK is humiliating. Before Russia bowed down to China’s vassal. They should have accepted defeat and put an end to this madness
South Korea is a more potent military and economic power than North Korea. NK has to keep an eye on its own strategic stockpiles.
The Russian state resembles a huge balloon full of water. Russia applies a lot of duct tape to prevent it from leaking
Sooner or later, this balloon will burst. All the duct tape in the world won’t hold this rotten and evil empire together. There is a historic precedent. The Tsarist army was well equipped by late 1916. By December 1917, Tsarist Russia found itself in a civil war.
Russia produced roughly 200 new tanks in 2023. They pulled another 90 out of storage each month
Russia lost at least 3000 tanks in two years. This situation is unsustainable. Russian attrition rates vastly outstrip its new production. The longer this war continues. The more likely Russia will suffer some form of economic, political or military collapse.
Historically, wars of attrition often end with a breakdown of logistics
Either one side or both sides are then running out of money, barrels, uniforms, ammo, food, and medicine. Hunger, disease, and exposure to the elements are other attritional factors.
“There is no instance of a nation benefitting from prolonged warfare.” Sun Tzu
Russia will suffer a poverty driven and crushing defeat because Ukraine has better allies. Russia has vultures who will pick the carcass of their empire clean. Putin’s barbaric venture will end in failure. The Kremlin’s imperialism is a danger to all free nations. This is also our war. We must defend our values. The
principle of sovereignty. The rule of law. Russia lies when they speak about a multipolar world order. What they mean by that is that the strong will dominate the weak. The rule of the jungle, chaos, mass poverty famine, and more war. Dictatorships don’t know how to negotiate or discuss something. Such regimes only know how to subjugate and surpress others.
“Russiae Imperium delendum est”
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Sources
https://www.38north.org/2024/01/is-kim-jong-un-preparing-for-war/
https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/969254.html
https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-supplying-122mm-152mm/
