avatarAndalusian Horseman

Summary

China threatens military intervention if NATO sends forces to Ukraine, and North Korea prepares for war, escalating tensions in the Far East.

Abstract

The article discusses China's recent ultimatum to militarily intervene if NATO invades Ukraine, hinting at potential involvement in Taiwan as well. The author explains China's preference for diplomacy and neutrality but highlights its willingness to go to war if its interests are at stake. The article also mentions China's 2020 scuffle with India, where it took Ladakh through force, as an example of its bold moves when the other party is in a weaker position. The author suggests that China may not put boots on the ground in Ukraine but could open up fronts in Taiwan and North Korea to keep America busy and leave Europe to Russia's mercy. The article also touches on North Korea's recent aggressive posturing, including preparing for war after joint training exercises between South Korea and America and performing ballistic missile tests in response to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to South Korea.

Bullet points

  • China threatens military intervention if NATO sends forces to Ukraine, hinting at potential involvement in Taiwan.
  • China prefers diplomacy and neutrality but will go to war if its interests are at stake.
  • China took Ladakh from India in 2020 through force, capitalizing on India's weaker position at the time.
  • China may not put boots on the ground in Ukraine but could open up fronts in Taiwan and North Korea to keep America busy and leave Europe to Russia's mercy.
  • North Korea prepares for war after joint training exercises between South Korea and America and performs ballistic missile tests in response to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's visit to South Korea.

North Korea prepares for War and China threatens to intervene militarily if NATO sends forces to Ukraine.

The far east is geering up for the inevitable showdown.

North Korean Tank

So, China did something remarkable that I didn’t think they would do. They gave the world an ultimatum that should NATO invade Ukraine they will also militarily intervene.

Yet they were vague about it and said they would intervene anywhere in the world. Which of course makes a logical person think, Ah ha! Taiwan.

And that’s true, they will invade Taiwan, that’s their plan eventually. But could they also be hinting at putting boots on the ground in Ukraine and why would they?

Firstly, let’s understand China. It’s a country that likes to resolve issues through deals, investments, and diplomacy. Look at one of its big achievements recently.

They brought Saudi and Iran to a table and brought peace to the middle east for a limited amount of time (before it blew up again).

That’s a big achievement for a region that’s constantly stuck in perpetual war since the beginning of time.

They’ve invested in Africa, modernizing many African countries such as Kenya, who, compared to 10 years ago, doesn’t even look the same. They’ve earned the favor of the Kenyan government through that, earning them more deals to construct infrastructure and roads, as well as improve their reputation in Africa. This has been happening for the past two decades.

So, they’re businessmen through and through, only working for profit and within peace there is always profit. Which is why they prefer to stay neutral. But that also means that if China’s interests are at stake, then they will happily go to war, because interests are linked to profit and above all China cares deeply about profit.

So, to some extent it does make sense for China, who values diplomacy and neutrality so much that it will put boots on the ground.

Let’s look at what happened in 2020, with the scuffle with India.

In 2020, China took Ladakh from India. It didn’t take it through diplomacy nor through any sort of deals, but it took it through force and beating a bunch of Indian soldiers into submission and then running a series of negotiations until the point came where it’s just normalized that they have taken Indian land.

And it’s because China knew that India was in a weaker position at that time and their interests were to take back land from China which included Ladakh as it was a part of Aksai Chin. Their territorial sovereignty is a part of their collective interests.

Taking Ladakh enlarges China’s sovereignty whereby they can then merge different countries together. Pakistan, Afghanistan and proceed with the BRI, which means profits for China.

But there is also another reason why China is able to make such bold moves and that’s because of the influence of the other party. In 2020, India was in a weaker state than it currently is right now. With Pakistan strong under Imran Khan’s leadership and the events of 27th Feb and downing and subsequent capture of an Indian soldier, India’s influence within the region took a nosedive.

Sensing this, China took the opportunity, and they were able to take Ladakh.

Why am I telling you this? It’s because It’s the same situation here. Europe and America are weak under the current leadership. They’ve made some very public mistakes in Gaza that have led to serious consequences, which has led to the freefall of their influence probably worldwide.

This is why the Chinese can threaten with military intervention, because they sense that weakness from the west and they aim to capitalize on it now. It’s the perfect time under Biden to make a move, even make a move into Ukraine if they’re willing to risk it.

But I didn’t answer the question, why would China of all people put boots in Ukraine.

I personally don’t think China would put boots on the ground in Ukraine, it’s not in China’s interest to pick a fight with Europe, when they’re one of their largest customers. But I do think they’ll put boots on the ground in Taiwan and in North Korea.

Open up these two fronts to keep America busy so it doesn’t have time to back Europe. Essentially leaving Europe to Russia’s mercy.

And another reason they sent this message across is because Russia and China’s interests are linked very closely, they’re strategic partners whose history of partnership goes back 20 years ago.

They fear that if Russia falls in Ukraine, then China is next or if Europe falls in Ukraine, then that’s terrible for Chinese interests in Europe.

It’s a lose-lose situation for China. Losing your strategic partner or losing one of your biggest customers.

But it doesn’t stop here.

Their little brother, North Korea is also spreading its wings.

During the training exercise between SK and America, Kim Jong Un was watching closely at the muscle flexing. Soon after it was concluded, he decided to prepare for war.

Signaling that they weren’t deterred by the exercise. But the point of the exercise wasn’t just to deter North Korea, it was also a message from Washington telling Kim to be ready if he tries any sort of misadventure in the region.

Kim responded to that message by performing ballistic missiles tests in the sea, as Blinken made his timely visit to SK. Essentially telling America, “bring it on.”

And this aggressive posturing from North Korea began after the events of October the 7th and the diminishing influence of America in the region.

And as America tries to correct its course, I think it’s too late and the gears have begun moving; they’ll be hard to stop now.

War with China/North Korea will be inevitable, and it won’t just be Taiwan where the war will be fought, but in Seoul and possibly.

North Korea
China
America
Politics
War
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