Non-stop claims of Tesla demand slowing are nonsensical
There are no signs at all that Tesla does not sell every car it makes.
That means there is no fundamental demand problem.
The in-transit inventory build-up is low, caused at all only by unavoidable monthly delivery logistics.
But remember every shipped Tesla is a sold Tesla. There are no dealerships ‘buying’ them for potential sale.
And the delivery waiting time upon order is not crazy low either, Tesla can’t make enough cars to satisfy instant demand.
The drop from the desired 50% growth to 25%-ish is due to manufacturing challenges as Tesla has hit battery production rate bugs and ramps of CyberTruck, Semi & refresh Model 3 & Y. If not for those, Tesla would easily have hit 2M deliveries in 2023.
If Tesla could make more cars they would because they sell every one.
I will concede that
- Due to the economy and competition from BYD Tesla has slowed the roll out of the Giga Mexico fit-out as announced 6 months ago. That is just about their only concession to a conservative approach. Even Tesla knows that in this economy it needed to cut prices even more if they produced more cars.
- Due to the huge ramp-ups Tesla did indeed need to cut prices due to hitting new markets as well. Or else, at those prices, there would indeed have been a demand problem. That’s always the case as volume increases. Tesla is no longer selling just to early adopters. But that’s a great problem to have!
So for now, until Model 2 in late 2025, or more likely mid-2026, we are stuck with around 25% growth.
How pathetic. Not.
That’s incredible growth at scale. Here’s to 2.2M or 2.3M Tesla EVs this year and 5M per year by 2028 a few years into a successful Model 2 ramp. That’ll be over 50% Toyota’s ICE output.
I still give Tesla a decent chance of overtaking Toyota’s 8M output by 2030. And majorly at Toyota’s expense.