But it could be one day

No, Substack Isn’t for You

Sorry

In this article, I assume you want to make money from your writings and that you’re ready to hear some brutal truths. If that’s not you, skip directly to my next story!

It’s much (much x10) easier to make money on Medium than Substack.

On Medium, you can write whatever you want, and some people will read it. I’ve proved it many times. But finding readers isn’t easy, and many people leave Medium thinking they will find greener pastures on Substack.

They’re delusional.

If you can’t make $100 monthly on Medium, there’s zero chance you’ll make money on Substack. (I believe the number to be $1,000/month, but I didn’t want to scare you.)

On Substack, people pay to read your stories. Exclusively.

Look around if you want to know how hard it is to convince people to give you money for your stories. How many of the Medium writers you regularly read would you be willing to pay $5/month to read only their stories?

What’s that sound I hear?

Crickets?

To make money on Medium, you don’t have to be a good writer (example) because it’s an all-you-can-read buffet. But on Substack, people order from the menu and expect quality food.

I believe someone making $1,000 monthly on Medium has a good enough understanding of online writing and a mastery of the art of writing itself to make money on Substack.

Online writing and writing are two different things. You can be a great writer and utterly unsuccessful online because it’s more about writing what people want to read than writing beautifully. Also, marketing and self-promotion.

Making money on Medium is easier because you can write about many topics and chase the boost or the viral article

Earnings on articles aren’t evenly distributed on Medium. At. All.

Usually, a few boosted/viral articles make the most of your earnings.

An even easier way to earn on Medium is to publish 100 articles monthly. That’s a lot of work, but it’s more or less guaranteed to bring you $1,000 — especially if you add some networking (spamming) sauce to the mix.

To make $1,000 on Substack, you need 200 people paying you $5 per month

(222 because Substack takes a 10% commission)

Assuming a 5% conversion rate, you need 4,000 free subscribers.

Not followers. Subscribers.

I have 4,364 followers and 151 subscribers on Medium. To get 4k subscribers, I would need 115,602 followers. That’s the order of magnitude of success we are talking about.

Few writers have this number of followers.

Again, on Medium, not all articles are equal. Most don’t earn much. Once in a blue moon, you get viral-ish or boosted.

But good writers can do this on repeat.

In other words, you earn more from the “viral exceptions” than from your regular readers reading all your articles.

On Substack, you earn only from your regular readers

All articles earn the same. You can get a viral one that will bring you more subscribers than usual, but you’ll earn money only if they become regular (paid) readers.

Another constraint on Substack is that you need to niche down. True fans will read anything you write, but there aren’t enough to make $1,000/month (which isn’t a living wage). The key is to have regular readers interested in the intersection of topics and writing style you offer.

What’s the upside of Substack then?

It’s the winning lottery ticket dream.

On Medium, winning means a $1,000 article.

On Substack, you can dream bigger. If your newsletter wins the lottery, you’ll get 1,000 paid subscribers and make $50,000 per year from your writings.

All that said, there’s a question you should ask: why is Smillew on Substack if he believes what he writes?

The answer isn’t that I’m making $1,000 monthly on Medium. It’s more of a “cobbler’s children always go barefoot” case, where the cobbler is my Grandma. Another reason is that I love nothing more than proving people wrong, even if it’s myself.

For another perspective on Substack, read this story by Eric Pierce.