What Quarterback Will Lead the NFL in Interceptions or Win Comeback Player of the Year?

Quarterback is more important than any position in sports. What QBs will come back in a big way, and who will fall on their face?

THE NFL HAS ALWAYS BEEN A QUARTERBACK’S LEAGUE, and that’s truer than ever in 2019. That’s why it was such seismic news when Andrew Luck abruptly announced his retirement and why quarterbacks so often win the league’s biggest awards. When a quarterback struggles, the entire team does too. If he misses a chunk of the season, a team’s entire trajectory can change.

Andrew Luck missed 2017, but when he came back healthy, the Colts won 9 of their final 10 games to make the playoffs, and Luck was named Comeback Player of the Year. Now Luck has retired — but were he to return again sometime in the future, he might well win Comeback Player of the Year again. That’s how important quarterbacks are to this league.

Some of the league’s big names are attempting their own comeback this fall. Jimmy Garoppolo and Carson Wentz are working to return from injury, while veterans like Eli Manning and Joe Flacco are just attempting to return from the dead. But not every return is successful. Some of these guys might just throw a bunch of turnovers or get benched or hurt again.

So who will lead the NFL in interceptions in 2019, and which quarterback could win NFL Comeback Player of the Year?

MOST INTERCEPTIONS THROWN

Of course any quarterback can rack up interceptions, but some turn it over more than others. At SportsBook Review, I did a full review of the recent interception leaders. I found that interception leaders need to play a lot and throw a lot, they’re likely to be age 28 or older, and they probably need to throw at least 18 interceptions to lead the league.

Here are five quarterbacks with intriguing Bovada odds that could end up leading the league in interceptions.

Mitchell Trubisky CHI +3300

Trubisky threw 12 interceptions in 14 starts last year and actually saw his interception rate rise from his rookie to sophomore year (2.5 to 2.8%). Most of the time that number drops starkly in a player’s second season, so that’s a bad sign for Trubisky’s future, especially since some metrics have Trubisky throwing as many as five more dropped interceptions a year ago. Chicago will have to pass and gamble more this year as their defense inevitably regresses to the mean, and Trubisky continues to make a lot of mistakes. This is a big year for his future, and this thing has a chance of going very south.

Patrick Mahomes KC +2000

Yes, the MVP. Mahomes is a bet on volume as much as anything. The Chiefs defense is still pretty bad, so Mahomes will be throwing plenty — and remember, Kansas City scored so much last year Mahomes often didn’t even have to go all out in the second half as he was protecting a lead. This is also a guy that likes to try things and can sometimes force a play a la Brett Favre, things like throwing with his off hand or behind the back. Mahomes got lucky to avoid a number of interceptions last year. If he has a little less luck and more volume than ever, he could put up a surprising interceptions total.

Philip Rivers LAC +1400

Rivers has gone through up and down swings in his NFL career. He’s been pretty accurate of late but averaged 17 interceptions from 2014 to 2016, and he’s had two seasons with over 20 interceptions in his career. The Chargers were 12–4 a year ago but Rivers is 38 years old and might be missing his left tackle and his star running back for a big chunk of the season. Rivers is a Hall of Fame quarterback and this would be a pretty quick and steep drop-off, but when an older QB goes, he goes fast.

Kyler Murray ARI +1000

This one is probably not much of a surprise. Murray is a rookie who should start from day one, and he’s likely to have a pretty high volume in an up-tempo Kliff Kingsbury system. Lots of passes means lots of chances for a mistake, and rookies tend to make a lot of mistakes. Murray was an historically accurate QB at Oklahoma, completing 69.8% of his passes with a fantastic 1.7% interception rate, and those numbers typically translate to the NFL… once a player settles in. Murray will have a learning curve.

Jameis Winston TB +750

When I wrote about this for SportsBook Review, Winston was a worthy favorite but wouldn’t win the award because he was likely to lose his job once the inevitable turnovers started racking up. The turnovers part is still true — Jameis has thrown 58 interceptions in 54 starts, a horrid 3.0% interception rate. What changed is that Winston’s backup, Blaine Gabbert, got hurt, and now there’s no obvious backup for Tampa to pivot to. They might be stuck playing Jameis, and if he plays all 16 games, Winston will have a huge chance of leading the league in interceptions. Don’t be surprised if this number starts falling soon, and hard.

NFL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Each year, the Associated Press awards an NFL Comeback Player of the Year award. The interesting thing about this award is that it can go to a player at any position, but that it most often goes to a quarterback. Why is that? Because, of course, quarterbacks matter the most. We notice the most when they’re missing, and we see the biggest difference when they come back and play well. And because any player can win Comeback Player of the Year but it’s typically a quarterback, that leaves for some interesting Bovada odds.

Jimmy Garoppolo SF +325

Garoppolo is the favorite, and among quarterbacks, he’s the favorite by a mile. In fact, the players with the next three best odds are all RBs (Le’Veon Bell +450, Devonta Freeman +900, and Derrius Guice +1200), and my study shows that RBs are very unlikely to win Comeback Player of the Year. In theory, that should make Jimmy G a great bet, but I worry he might not even be the right QB for the 49ers since backup Nick Mullens has played just as well for San Francisco. Garoppolo struggled in his first preseason action since coming back but looked a lot better against the Chiefs. I worry that he could have an up and down season, and he’s never really proven himself yet.

Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz +1200

Wentz is by far my favorite pick for this award, especially at his odds. If I were the odds maker here, I would be listing Wentz as the favorite, probably at something like 3- or 4-to-1 odds instead of 12-to-1. Wentz has always been very good when healthy, both in college and as a pro, and he is playing on a high profile team in Philadelphia that has a great chance of winning its division and making a run at the Super Bowl. A healthy Wentz is likely in contention for the MVP award, so he could practically be a shoe-in as Comeback Player of the Year at that point. Wentz should win double-digit games and hit 4000 yards and 30+ touchdowns in a full season.

Carolina Panthers QB Cam Newton +1400

Newton is always going to get plenty of media attention, and he tends to put up pretty big numbers when he plays, both by air and by land. The problem with Newton’s case is narrative. Though he’s always dealing with injuries, he hasn’t really missed much time, and it doesn’t really feel like he was “gone” to need a comeback. Add to that Newton’s preseason ankle injury that already has him banged up to begin the season, and we’re off to a poor start.

Marcus Mariota TEN +2500

Mariota feels like he’s always nursing some injury, and that’s why I’m not confident in his ability to stay healthy this season either. You can’t win Comeback Player of the Year if you’re not able to come back and stay healthy. There’s some intrigue here with the AFC South door slightly ajar now that Luck has retired, but Mariota hasn’t proven he can play anything close to a 16-game schedule in the NFL.

Joe Flacco DEN +3300

Flacco is the most interesting long shot for Comeback Player of the Year. Remember the last time the Broncos signed a former Super Bowl winning quarterback whose team gave up on him after an injury-plagued season and turned to a younger option? Flacco isn’t exactly Peyton Manning, but like Peyton, he inherits a stellar defense. Don’t expect an MVP run from Flacco, but Denver has the makings of a potential surprise 10-win team. If they do turn it around, the defense will be the biggest reason, but Flacco could get the lion’s share of the credit — and maybe even an award. ■

Adapted from work I did for SportsBook Review. Read more about Garoppolo’s future, interception leaders, and Comeback POY odds there.

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