NFL Preview 2018: The NFC South is Positively Sweltering
After greedily gobbling up three of the NFC playoff slots last year, their best teams have only improved. The Falcons return strong on both sides of the ball and feeling more comfortable with their offensive scheme. Some of the Saints’ young talent, meanwhile, has come into its own. Cam and the Panthers won’t be completely counted out, but the Bucs have to weather some adversity.
The Unplugg’d Staff will be previewing the 2018 NFL Season by going through each division and highlighting key storylines for every club. Up next is the NFC South, the class of the NFL in 2017.
To read our previous installments, click here:
- The Patriots’ Path Through the AFC East Has Never Been Easier
- How Much Longer Can Pittsburgh Run the AFC North?
- The AFC South Has Never Been More Competitive
- The Chargers Ain’t a Lock to Win the AFC West
- The NFC East Is As Unpredictable As Ever
- The NFC North Just Became Downright Scary
New Orleans Saints
In 2017: 11–5 (Won NFC South, Lost Divisional Playoff Game to the Vikings, 24–29)
Key Transactions
- Added: TE Benjamin Watson, S Kurt Coleman, CB Patrick Robinson, LB Demario Davis, DE Marcus Davenport (R)
- Lost: DT Nick Fairley, OL Senio Kelemete, OT Zach Strief
- Notes: After winning the division last year, the Saints refused to sit back and be contented with their existing talent level. Instead, they made a bold move to trade up in the first round, grabbing pass rusher Marcus Davenport and signaling by giving up a 2019 first pick that they believed they held the blueprints for a Super Bowl run…The loss of veteran Nick Fairley is a casualty, but overall the Saints strengthened their defense with additions like Coleman, Robinson, and Davis…The Saints also let go of a couple of offensive lineman in Kelemete and Strief, but could afford to by filling those gaps with younger, up-and-coming players slotted to take over the starting positions anyway.
Three Things We’re Watching
- The Drew Brees-era Saints have already navigated the doldrums of the 2014–2016 seasons and have come out the other side a more mature and substantial team. Brees has obviously had one of the most dominant arms in the NFL since his arrival, but a sometimes erratic offensive scheme has caused the Saints’ production to seem a little inconsistent at times. They seemed to find a polished stride in 201, though, as Alvin Kamara began to emerge and a more reliable run game settled in. Expect the 2018 Saints offense to look comfortable and controlled as they chew up yardage and rack up endzone visits.
- The Saints pass defense is going to be nothing short of terrifying in 2018. Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Williams have each displayed alarming levels of young talent, and the Saints just gave them some backfield help through free agency. The front seven got more threatening versus the pass in the off-season, too, with the additions of electric pass-rushing rookie Marcus Davenport and LB Demario Davis. This pass defense is one of the most robust in the league, and with Brees on the other side of the ball, Saints opponents are going to have trouble keeping up.
- Keep your eye on the coming of age of the Saints youngsters this season. Over the past two years, the club could not have been more productive in acquiring practical talent through the draft. In 2016, they added OG Andrus Peat, DT Sheldon Rankins, and WR Michael Thomas. They topped that in 2017 by netting the league’s best draft class with players like Kamara, Lattimore, Marcus Williams, OT Ryan Ramczyk, and LB Alex Anzalone. With at least a year under all of their belts and the impressive company of the veterans around them, the New Orleans youth wave is poised to crash all over the NFL.
The Pick: 12–4 (Division Champions)
Carolina Panthers
In 2017: 11–5 (Lost Wild Card Playoff Game to the Saints, 26–31)
Key Transactions
- Added: DT Dontari Poe, WR Jarius Wright, OG Jeremiah Sirles, WR D.J. Moore (R), CB Donte Jackson (R), CB Ross Cockrell, S Da’Norris Searcy
- Lost: OG Andrew Norwell, S Kurt Coleman, RB Jonathan Stewart, DT Star Lotuleli, TE Ed Dickson, CB Teddy Williams
- Notes: The off season free agency loss of OG Andrew Norwell undoubtedly hurt the Panthers more than any other single free agency acquisition helped them, but the addition of DT Dontari Poe from division rival Atlanta does significantly bolster their defensive line…The Panthers added two WRs in Jarius Wright and rookie D.J. Moore in an attempt to diversify their offense and to rejuvenate QB Cam Newton…The Panthers tried to plug the hole left behind by Norwell’s departure by adding OG Jeremiah Sirles, but it’s not even close to an even swap…They also bolstered their defensive secondary by adding CB Donte Jackson, S Da’Norris Searcy, and CB Ross Cockrell.
Three Things We’re Watching
- The Panthers are coming back at it this year with a new(ish) set of coordinators. Defensive Line Coach Eric Washington got promoted to Defensive Coordinator, but the overall defensive philosophy should be pretty much the same — don’t expect much change there. On offense, however, ancient guru Norv Turner takes over the helm as the OC, tasked with restoring Cam Newton to his former glory. The power game on which the Panthers previously rose to glory has taken its toll on the offense, so Turner will look to shift a portion of the load away from Christian McCaffrey and Newton’s scrambles to the air by utilizing the newly obtained receivers.
- The key to the offense, whether we’re talking about the passing game or the running game, is Cam Newton, of course. It’s no secret that Newton can be, and has previously been, a force of nature plowing down the field with a weighty offense on his back. He’s spent the past season and a half complaining about taking hits, though, a peril the big-bodied QB risks whether passing or running. Turner is reportedly trying to make Newton more viable from the safety of the pocket by improving his completion opportunities, but that’s an ambitious undertaking at this point.
- A few years ago, the Panthers built their success on pure physicality. That’s an approach that shortens careers and lands players in other cities, though, and they’ve lost some personnel as a result. The transition to a more balanced approach has already started on defense where LB Luke Kuechly expands the LB coverage area well into the secondary. The defining factor this year, though, will be the offense’s ability to transition to a more pass capable unit. They’re not going to be able to rely solely on the points produced by McCaffrey out of the backfield.
The Pick: 9–7
Atlanta Falcons
In 2017: 10–6 (Lost Divisional Playoff Game to the Eagles, 10–15)
Key Transactions
- Added: CB Justin Bethel, TE Logan Paulsen, OG Brandon Fusco, WR Calvin Ridley (R)
- Lost: DE Adrian Claiborne, DT Dontari Poe, WR Taylor Gabriel
- Notes: Failing to either gain or lose much ground through offseason roster moves, the Falcons look to return one of the league’s strongest defenses as well as one of its most promising offenses. They’ve added Georgia rookie Calvin Ridley as an upgrade to Taylor Gabriel, and given Matty “Ice” his teeth back…The synergy between Head Coach Dan Quinn (entering his third year), second-year Offensive Coordinator Steve Sarkisian, and the offensive unit should continue to gel, and we should see a significant upswing in 2018…A more effective offense means more carries and greater opportunities for the explosive Davonta Freeman, who is still in his prime…Greater ball control also means less time on the field for an already stingy defense featuring returning Pro Bowl talent in Deion Jones and Keanu Neal.
Three Things We’re Watching
- Matt Ryan has, at times, performed like one of the league’s best passers. Another year with Julio Jones and the addition of new weapon Calvin Ridley, along with the supporting run game threat of Devonta Freeman, could open things back up for Ryan after a lackluster 2017 campaign. Ryan suffered last year from the introduction of an unfamiliar offensive scheme, but we should have a chance to judge the extent of its effectiveness this year. The relative success of this solid team will rest on the re-ignition of the offense this year, and that will be dependent on Ryan’s ability to reverse last year’s slide in production.
- While the Atlanta defense is both strong and deep, it did lose two notable front four personalities in the offseason. A significant element in assuming that the Falcons have the ability to make another good playoff run is the belief that the defense will maintain its dominance. If the loss of Adrian Claiborne and Dontari Poe up front results in either less quarterback pressure or more rushing yardage allowed, we could begin to see a decline the entire unit’s effectiveness. This would be especially unfortunate timing if we accept that the offense is getting ready to kick back in. The defense needs to hang tough while the offense regains its footing if the Falcons want to make up some lost ground this year.
- “Dynamic” is the key term in Atlanta this year, and whether or not we see it will be evident in the “swing games.” The Falcons start the season against the Super Bowl champion Eagles, follow it up with two immediate games and two later games against the Panthers and Saints, and have games against the Packers and the Steelers sprinkled in. They’re going to lose some of those, but that won’t be the difference in their season. Nor will they be significantly affected by wins they pick up in the softer parts of their schedule. Instead, the defining moments of the Falcons season this year will reside in whether or not they can dominate their mid-range games like a true playoff contender should.
The Pick: 11–5 (Wilcard Berth)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In 2017: 5–11 (Last in NFC South)
Key Transactions
- Added: DE Jason Pierre-Paul, DE Vinny Curry, DT Beau Allen, K Chandler Catanzaro, NT Vita Vea (R), RB Ronald Jones (R)
- Lost: DE Robert Ayers, RB Doug Martin, RB Charles Sims, DT Chris Baker, DT Clinton McDonald, CB Robert McClain
- Notes: The Bucs made a sizeable effort in the off season, plopping down veteran star DEs Jason Pierre-Paul and Vinny Curry on either side of rookie NT Vita Vea and Pro Bowl DT Gerald McCoy. They also brought in DT Beau Allen to flesh out the defensive line after the losses of DTs Chris Baker and Clinton McDonald…The RB position also saw a lot of movement as well, as Doug Martin and Charles Sims left to pursue other opportunities, while the team added rookie RB Ronald Jones through the draft…The Bucs also improved their kicking game with the addition of K Chandler Catanzaro.
Three Things We’re Watching
- I mean…Jameis Winston. He’s out for the first three games on a league suspension for conduct violations after groping an Uber driver. This is not the first time Winston has been accused of assaulting a woman; he was additionally punished for non-physical conduct related to women in other instances at FSU. Winston also landed in hot water while at FSU after shoplifting some crab legs. It’s easy to make too much out of off-field behavior, but Winston will be serving a three-game suspension, and it’s not unreasonable to wonder if these issues will not only affect his team this season, but also in the future.
- It’s hard to imagine the Buccaneers receiving corps possessing more talent and less production. Mike Evans is a physical marvel, but his numbers have been disappointing compared to what’s been envisioned for him. Rumors swirl around that he’s just not a hard worker. DeSean Jackson, similarly, has made a career out of frustrating and saddening anyone and everyone who has wished him well. It doesn’t bode well, then, that they’ll be working with career backup Ryan Fitzpatrick to start the season before switching gears to work with the distracted Jameis Winston.
- Tampa Bay went all in on the defensive line without really addressing their concerns in the secondary. As a result, they’ll be forced to hope that a nightmarish pass rush materializes each play before opposing WRs come free. This is a tricky risk to take, as it may leave them exposed downfield at a rate too frequent for their challenged offensive passing game to compensate. As it stands, the Bucs defense going to be forced to rely on creating offensive backfield turnovers and scheme pass defense in order to keep some games from getting out of reach.
The Pick: 5–11
