2019-20 NFL Playoff Preview and Wildcard Round Picks

Playoff power rankings and what we know about all 12 remaining teams, plus Wildcard Round picks and predictions…

AND THEN THERE WERE 12. Just 12 NFL playoff teams remain after an everlasting offseason, Hard Knocks, fantasy football SZN, and 17 grueling Sundays of football. This is what we waited all year for — this is the playoffs!

It’s time for a new power rankings, previewing the playoffs by ranking each team 12 to 1 on how likely they are to win Super Bowl LIV with the matchups set. Here’s what we know about every remaining team, plus Wildcard Round predictions and full playoff picks below…

TIER IV — THANKS FOR STOPPING BY

No team has a 0% chance of winning the Super Bowl until they’re officially eliminated, but we’re ruling these four teams out anyway.

12. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles have nothing left. Every receiver is out. Zach Ertz will be severely limited with a lacerated kidney, if he plays at all. Multiple Pro Bowl offensive linemen are out. Their best defensive player Fletcher Cox is banged up. The corners weren’t good to start with and are all sorts of injured.

Credit Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz for patching things up enough to sneak into the playoffs, and I won’t be shocked if they hang with Seattle and steal another home playoff win as underdogs (*cough* double doink). But this team is too banged up to win four more. They had to win four in a row just to get here, and the playoff appearance alone is their prize.

11. Houston Texans

I never quite figured out these Texans, and I’m not totally sure they’ve figured themselves out either. Houston made several all-in moves and has wins over Kansas City and New England to show for it, but they also have six one-score wins against non-playoff teams and a handful of poor losses.

Houston is flashy, and as long as Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins are out there, anything is possible. But the offensive line is still poor and the defense is the worst left in the playoffs, crushed by injuries as always. Houston can win or lose to anyone. That makes them a dangerous opponent, but it’s no formula for winning four games in a row and hoisting the Lombardi.

10. Buffalo Bills

I’ve slowly came to grips with Buffalo being a quality team, thanks to great play in the trenches and on defense plus outstanding coaching and roster management. The Bills do everything a classic underdog should do. They limit turnovers. They play tough D. They control the ball. They put you in a position to beat yourself, and in today’s NFL, a lot of teams beat themselves.

Of course, most of those teams aren’t in the playoffs. At the end of the day, Buffalo will still have the worse quarterback in any playoff matchup. Josh Allen came a long way this season, but it was a journey from terrible-and-not-an-NFL-quarterback to okay-fine-he’s-a-game-manager. The Bills will be a tough out and force you to beat them, but at some point, someone will.

9. Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks were a few inches from winning the division, but their playoff hopes were killed the week before with the upset loss to the Cardinals. These are not your grandfather’s Seahawks. They’re much closer to a one-man team. Russell Wilson was the MVP at the season’s midpoint, and the run game had been strong but lost its top three RBs, and Marshawn Lynch didn’t show much burst last week.

They still haven’t fixed their line, and the defense is far from what it once was. Seattle is a mostly average team with brash coaching that often hurts the team in big moments as much as it helped them get there. They finished the season with a +7 point differential, more like an 8–8 team than one fighting for a bye. They’re only here at all thanks to an incredible 10–2 record in one-score games. In fact, Seattle beat only one opponent all season by more than one score, and that was back in September.

History says one-score wins are luck as much as anything, and no matter how good Russell Wilson is, it’s tough to keep four road games close and count on Russ to pull another rabbit out of the hat late. With a bye and a home game or two, Seattle had a shot. Alas.

TIER III — MAYBE IF YOU SQUINT

I only see four real Super Bowl contenders, but that’s why you play the games. These teams have a shot but they’re going to have to pull off a couple upsets and show us something we haven’t seen yet this season.

8. New England Patriots

When is the last time you watched New England and came away genuinely impressed? Was it… Week 1 Sunday night against Pittsburgh? It might have been. The Patriots started 8–0, allowing only 61 points. Then they gave up 37 in a blowout loss to Baltimore, struggled to beat mediocre Philadelphia and Dallas teams, and limped to a 2–3 finish in December. New England has scored more than 24 only once since October — against the 2–14 Bengals — and averaged 16.6ppg in the rest. They’re 3–3 against playoff teams, the three wins against Buffalo and Philly. Their last marquee win was the Super Bowl.

New England beat up on bad teams, with the easiest schedule in the league, but didn’t show up against the best opponents. Now they’re stuck in the Wildcard Round for the first time since 2009. The Pats winning formula has always been dominate the regular season, win a home game, then you’re in the final four and you see what happens. They’ve never won a Super Bowl starting from the Wildcard Round. The last time they played there, Ray Rice ripped off an 83-yard touchdown on the first play, Baltimore went up 24–0 in the first quarter, and the Pats limped out of the playoffs. That was the last time New England didn’t play in the AFC Championship.

New England finished with the #1 defense but had more of an above average D the second half of the season than an elite one, and the offense is a dud. Tom Brady looks like a game manager at this point, and there just aren’t any weapons that can break a game open. Dump-off passes to Julian Edelman and James White can only get you so far. Look past the history and focus on the present. New England isn’t great. They’re not going to win Super Bowl LIV.

7. Tennessee Titans

I’m not even sure the Patriots are better than the Titans. Tennessee is legit, and I’d call them the third best AFC team at this point. I’d even give them a real Super Bowl shot if they were the 5-seed instead of 6, but guaranteed trips to New England and Baltimore is a pretty steep ask.

Still, throw what you think you know about the Titans out the window. They’ve been a different team since Ryan Tannehill took over, averaging 30.4ppg with at least three touchdowns in all 10 games. Tennessee, not Baltimore, is the league’s #1 offense since Week 10. They’re also a top-5 run defense and #5 overall in weighted DVOA, a measure of a team’s overall ability with more weight on the most recent results. The Titans are playing like a bye-week team and peaking at the right time.

Tennessee’s style is perfect for a playoff underdog too. Run the ball and control the clock with Derrick Henry, take occasional shots downfield to rookie stud WR A.J. Brown, and hope Ryan Tannehill continues his magical run. How magical? Tanny has been the #2 QB in most metrics since taking over and would be a legitimate MVP candidate if he played all year. Can he keep it going four more games?

6. Minnesota Vikings

As a lifelong Vikings fan, I’m forever a skeptic (that’s how purple-colored glasses work in Minnesota), but I genuinely believe this is the second best team playing this weekend. The problem is they’re playing the best.

Minnesota had a real path to the Super Bowl a week ago. Beat the Packers and everything was in play. Some help might have gotten them a home game, even a bye. Winning out would’ve guaranteed at least the 5-seed, a game favored against the NFC East champ, and a trip to Green Bay or Seattle. Minnesota might’ve been the best team in each game. Instead they hit the road for New Orleans and then San Francisco, the two best teams in the conference. They’re good enough to beat either of them, but it’s a long road.

Minnesota is really good. Kirk Cousins is better than you think. The big game narrative is lazy and outdated. Cousins had three stinkers but was otherwise outstanding, and he’ll be even better with a rested and healthy Dalvin Cook. Cook is the best runner in the playoffs, and he unlocks a deadly playaction passing game. But the Vikings defense is not as healthy, and the secondary has been a weak spot all year. Kirk Cousins doesn’t have to outplay four quarterbacks, but the secondary does, and they’re not up to the task.

5. Green Bay Packers

The Packers might be the worst team in this tier, but it’s amazing what a free win (bye week) can do for you. By DVOA, the Packers are the second worst 13–3 team ever. Advanced metrics suggest Green Bay should have won under 10 games, and they grade out roughly equivalent to the Eagles or Rams. Four of the six previous worst 13–3 teams all lost their first playoff game, even at home after a week of rest.

So what makes Green Bay good? It starts with Aaron — no, not that one. Aaron Jones has been awesome, the anchor for this offense. The other Aaron has been pretty forgettable. Rodgers hasn’t had the same magic for years, and the cold truth is that he’s one of the worst QBs in the playoffs. Green Bay’s defense has a few playmakers but is average at best.

The Packers should be playing this week, not the Saints, but them’s the breaks. It only takes three wins now, at least one of them at Lambeau. Add in an upset clearing out Baltimore or a trip to San Fran and maybe Rodgers has just enough left in the tank for one more ride.

TIER II — SERIOUS TITLE HOPES

There’s one team alone at the top, but don’t tell these teams. They have real reason to believe, and anything short of a Super Bowl berth will be a huge disappointment. Each of them has a 10 to 15% chance of winning it all — that’s one in seven to ten. So you’re sayin’ there’s a chance…

4. New Orleans Saints

Had Seattle gained those last few inches, the Saints would be sitting at home resting with one less game to win and a far more favorable path, despite losing Drew Brees for the first half of the season. New Orleans hasn’t even fired on all cylinders yet, but they won 12 of their final 14.

So how good is New Orleans? The regular season results might suggest they’re a bit overrated. The Saints have seven wins by one score, the last four against non-playoff teams. Drew Brees is 1–5 on the road in the playoffs, and now they probably need to win two road games, plus a difficult home game this weekend. Are the Saints still rounding into form at the right time, or are they just not quite as good this season? Alvin Kamara hasn’t been as dangerous, and the defense has had big games and big misses.

I picked the Saints to win the Super Bowl before the season, and with a better path, I’d believe. But New Orleans is probably going to have to beat Minnesota, win at Lambeau and in San Francisco, then upset a better Baltimore or Kansas City team. They certainly can win all those games, but that’s a heck of an ask. The difference between a bye and the 3-seed is the difference from the top to the bottom of this tier.

3. Kansas City Chiefs

I’m starting to wonder if maybe the Chiefs are the team everyone is thinking the Saints are. Their MVP quarterback missed time but is healthy now. The playcalling is just as good or better, the coaching is elite, and the defense has suddenly allowed only 11.5 points per game over the last six games.

The Chiefs are really good, and now that Mahomes and Tyreek Hill are healthy, they have the guns to outscore any team. Sometimes the best offense isn’t a good defense. Sometimes it’s just a really awesome offense. If no one can slow down the Ravens anyway, maybe the Chiefs are better off trying to outscore them.

Kansas City had a 7% chance at a bye week a month ago, but they’ve won six in a row and suddenly have a real shot at this. I don’t see anyone with a real shot at keeping up with this offense in the Divisional Round, and suddenly Mahomes is two wins away from a Super Bowl. Kansas City has a real shot.

2. San Francisco 49ers

It’s amazing what a yard can mean. Instead of the 5-seed and a weekend road trip, the 49ers are home resting. And with a New Orleans win likely this week, San Fran gets a Saturday game against an beat-up, exhausted Seattle or Philly team strewn with injuries traveling across the country on a short week.

The 49ers began as the NFC’s version of the Patriots, with an elite defense and just enough offense. I’m not sure that’s what we’ve got anymore. It’s a more balanced team now, and that’s a good thing. San Francisco’s D has taken a step back but still finished second in DVOA, and they may get key contributors like Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander back in the playoffs. Add in that fierce defensive line and the 49ers have by far the best defense in the NFC.

Kyle Shanahan has this offense firing, too. Emmanuel Sanders has been a perfect fit and freed up Deebo Samuel to do a bit of everything. George Kittle is a weapon all unto himself, and Jimmy Garoppolo has stepped up his game as the season has gone on. Watch all the speed and movement on this offense and it’s impossible not to think of Sean McVay’s Rams last year — but with the best tight end in the game and an elite defense.

In almost any other year, all that would make San Francisco the Super Bowl favorite. Of course, almost any other year doesn’t feature the 2019 Ravens.

TIER I — THE PROHIBITIVE FAVORITE

1. Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore is good at everything, one of the top DVOA teams of all time.

Lamar Jackson is the MVP, and he’s been almost as good passing as running, which is terrifying. Baltimore set the all-time NFL record for rushing. The Ravens have the best offense in football and a top-3 defense over the second half of the season, once they added Marcus Peters and found the right formula. Heck, the only thing the Ravens haven’t been awesome at is special teams, scary since that’s John Harbaugh’s specialty and they have the best kicker in football in Justin Tucker.

Baltimore is way better than everyone else, enough so that I’d strongly consider taking them versus the field, given the opportunity. Mark Ingram’s calf injury worries me a bit, but it will take a key injury or three to derail this team at this point.

As things stand, I’ll take the Ravens by double digits in three easy wins and a full offseason wondering how anyone will ever stop this team.

WILDCARD ROUND PICKS

Buffalo +3.5 at Houston

I can’t believe I’m picking Josh Allen against Deshaun Watson, but this isn’t one-on-one, and Buffalo is better almost everywhere else. Their defense is far tougher, their coaching is way better, and they’re much healthier. Buffalo lets teams beat themselves, and the Texans love to beat themselves.

Houston isn’t the same without a healthy Will Fuller. Fuller is questionable, and Tre’Davious White can limit DeAndre Hopkins as much as any human being. Buffalo’s under is 12–4, including 6–2 on the road, 8–1 as an underdog, and 7–2 since October. Houston as a favorite is 1–5–1 ATS, and their under is 5–2. That’s a whole lot of numbers that suggest Buffalo will limit the number of possessions, keep the scoring low, and hope Houston screws this up. The Bills last playoff win was in 1995 against Dan Marino, a few years after the epic comeback against Houston. They won’t need as many points in this one.

Tennessee +5 at New England

The Titans average 1.2 more yards per run and over 2 more yards per pass. Tennessee’s offense has hit the over in 9 of 10 Tannehill games, and the Patriots are under 50% converting in the red zone. There’s also this weird coaching pattern emerging where past New England coaches seem to know how to prepare for this team. It worked for Miami’s Brian Flores last week and for Detroit’s Matt Patricia and these Titans under Mike Vrabel a year ago. Tennessee will be ready and confident they can win this game, and they should be, because they are better.

The Patriots can win, but they need to do it as the underdog with a specific game plan. They need Stephon Gilmore to shut down A.J. Brown, but Gilmore hasn’t been as good lately, and they need to use everything else to stop Derrick Henry and hope Ryan Tannehill turns into a pumpkin. Tannehill is 0–6 in New England with an average margin of -22.5 points, but this is a different team. He still eats too many sacks, and the Titans are poor on special teams. Those are the areas the Patriots have to win to steal — yes, steal — this game. I like the Titans to keep it close enough to cover at least.

Philadelphia +2.5 vs Seattle

These two teams are the walking dead at this point with all the injuries. Seattle has unretired Marshawn Lynch, and Philly is down to its backup tight end and some dude named Boston Scott on offense. These teams are lucky they’re playing each other — against any other NFC foe, I’d pick the opponent and not think twice.

Honestly, I have no idea who wins this game. I suspect it’ll be close late and come down to Russ or Wentz making a couple key throws. Seattle seems like a slightly better version of Philadelphia right now, with better weapons and more defense, though I prefer Philly’s coaches and D-line. Add in the West-to-East travel after a crushing Sunday night loss, and this feels like a coin flip. Philly won a home playoff game against a better opponent last season, so maybe they can pull it off again. I’ll take the 2.5 points.

New Orleans -7.5 vs Minnesota

I’d love to back my Vikings, but this is an awful matchup. The Saints shouldn’t be playing this round, and they’re exactly the wrong team for Minnesota. They have the pass rush to make the Cousins naysayers look good, and if the game is ever in doubt, I can’t find any reason to believe Drew Brees can’t throw to Michael Thomas anytime he wants all game long.

Expect points. The Saints over is 7–4 as a favorite, the Vikings over is 3–1 as an underdog, and the over is 29–13 since 2004 in playoff dome games. Minnesota has the offense to keep up, and they’ll need a few big deep connections to have a shot, but Drew Brees is just too good at home.

I can’t even talk myself into a cover. At least we’ll get to watch 100 replays of the Minneapolis Miracle all week.

2020 PLAYOFF PICKS

Wildcard Round

Buffalo over Houston Tennessee over New England New Orleans over Minnesota Seattle over Philadelphia

Divisional Round

San Francisco over Seattle Baltimore over Tennessee Kansas City over Buffalo New Orleans over Green Bay

Conference Championships

San Francisco over New Orleans Baltimore over Kansas City

Super Bowl LIV

Baltimore 32, San Francisco 20 ■

DIVISIONAL ROUND BEST BETS

Buffalo-Houston under 37.5 Tennessee +5

Last week: 10–6 Season total: 140–111–2 (55.8%) Best bets: 28–23–1 (54.9%)

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