Nebula Awards 2022: My Novel Award Predictions
A few years ago, a couple of friends and I started reading the Nebula award nominees ahead of the awards and tried to predict the winner.
Turns out, I’m not very good at predicting the winner — I’ve managed it once in the past 5 years (for N.K Jemisin’s The Stone Sky in 2018), but I still enjoy reading and ranking the nominees.
What Are the Nebulas?
The Nebula Awards are voted on and presented by Science Fiction & Fantasy Writers of America. Unlike the Hugos, which fans can vote on, the Nebulas are all done by professional writers — they’re a bit like the SciFi Academy Awards. They started in 1965, and there are actually many different categories (short stories, game writing, etc.) that are awarded.
Note: I’m not a member of SFWA, so I don’t get to vote. Maybe one day!
2022 Novel Nominees
I actually thought this year’s nominees were quite strong. I didn’t struggle to finish any of the books — which has not always been true in the past!
Here are my rankings (with no spoilers):
5 — Plague Birds
Jason Sanford’s Plague Birds was the only book that I hadn’t heard of prior to the nominees being announced, and it was pretty obscure on Goodreads as well (140+ ratings at the time of writing vs. A Master of Djinn’s 10,000+). I didn’t dislike it, it had some fun ideas and kept me entertained, but I don’t think it really stood out. If there was a sequel, I probably wouldn’t seek it out, but I’d probably read it if someone gave it to me. I would be surprised if it won.
4 — Machinehood
I’ll admit that I started off really disliking S. B. Divya’s Machinehood. I didn’t care much for the characters, and the world seemed a little too far-fetched and depressing. But it grew on me! I preferred the chapters from the sister-in-law’s point of view the most. Overall, it didn’t really leave me with strong feelings one way or another, and I imagine that other readers may feel the same.
3 — The Unbroken
Even though it’s almost 500 pages, I still managed to read C.L. Clark’s The Unbroken in just a couple of days. The world-building in this book was really good, and I was driven to see what happened next — but the characters kept disappointing me, largely because they’re so inept. I felt like everyone in this book is bad at their job. I will be a little surprised if this one wins, although I am looking forward to the sequel.
2 — A Desolation Called Peace
If I did get to vote, I would cast it for Arkady Martine’s A Desolation Called Peace, the sequel to A Memory Called Empire. That was my winner prediction for 2020…which was wrong. (It did win the Hugo though!)
Due to that fact, I would be really surprised if the sequel manages to pick up the Nebula this year. I don’t think this is as good as the first book, but it brought back characters I liked and put them in totally new circumstances. It is a very different book than its predecessor and out of the nominees, it was my personal favorite.
1 — A Master of Djinn
My prediction for this year is P. Djèlí Clark’s A Master of Djinn, which takes place in an alternate magical, steampunk Egypt. The world-building in this book is excellent — I really enjoyed Clark’s Cairo — but again, I felt like the characters were a bit flat and underwhelming. I didn’t really care what they were doing, whose murder they were solving, or really what happened to them in the end. I just wanted to read more about their world!
Still, I think the excellent world-building is going to pull this one through for the win.
Which book do you think is going to win this year’s Nebula Award? I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments!