NCAA Football Bets for 11/28

Happy Thanksgiving weekend everyone! Last week we went 2–2 with our NCAA football bets but we’re still doing well for the season. There’s a few games on Thursday and Friday but I’m just focusing on Saturday’s college football games for this particular blog. If I have any plays for Thursday or Friday, or additional Saturday plays, after I write this up you can find them on Twitter.

College basketball tipped off their season on Wednesday night. I will eventually start blogging about some potential bets in college basketball but I’m not looking at anything this early into the season. As much as I love the action I don’t think it would be cost effective to jump in with nothing more than an educated guess to the start of this season. I’d rather just be honest and say that I’m going to wait until I can make the best bets before I start handicapping the games. Now let’s get into what worked and what didn’t work in college football so we can learn from any mistakes and get back to our winning ways with this week’s bets.

What Went Right?

For two weeks straight we’ve taken Illinois and it’s paid off for us both times. They started the season dealing with Covid issues and lost a lot of games along the way. Now that they’ve put that behind them the linesmakers are still looking at them like they’re the same team as they were at the start of their season. We had 14.5 points to our advantage and they ended up winning outright by 18 points.

The most controversial pick of mine when I posted on Reddit was taking Northwestern +7.5 against Wisconsin. I said the teams seemed evenly matched when it came to their offensive and defensive lines and I was happy to take the points in case we needed them. Some others felt that Wisconsin had a lot more talent when it came to skill positions. It worked out in our favor as Northwestern won outright 17–7.

What Went Wrong?

Not everything worked out as well as those two games did. I figured an overachieving Arkansas team would be able to take down LSU as they deal with their starting QB being out for the season. It was a very close game but Arkansas came up short losing 27–24. We had Arkansas +2.5 and it doesn’t get much closer than that. Unfortunately a close loss doesn’t pay any better than a blowout.

Speaking of a blowout, Arizona was completely dominated for the first 3 quarters against Washington. The Wildcats of Arizona scored all 27 of their points in the 4th quarter but they were still one touchdown shy as we needed them within 11.5 points. Washington won 44–27.

NCAA Football Bets

The first game I’m looking at for Saturday is the Syracuse Orange hosting the NC State Wolfpack. It’s hard to get excited about investing in a 1–8 Syracuse team that’s currently on a 6 game losing streak. NC State won a very close hard fought game last week against Liberty 15–14. A few of NC State’s wins this season have been by a narrow margin. 3 of which were by 3 points or less. Syracuse is coming off of a 30–0 blowout which is probably why this line is so high. When I see Syracuse I see a team that has forced 20 turnovers this season. I’m not going to pretend that Syracuse is a better team than NC State but if they can capitalize on their turnovers they’ll certainly keep this game close. With a 14.5 point spread I’m taking the underdog at home.

Due to 2020 being the way that it is we’ve had to deal with at least 6 cancelled games and 2 postponements for this week in NCAA football. This causes us to dig a little deeper when it comes to the right plays and I think there might be an opportunity in one of the ugliest games on the slate. The Ohio Bobcats will be hosting the Bowling Green Falcons. Bowling Green is coming off of a 25 point loss to Buffalo giving them their 3rd loss of their 0–3 season. What the Falcons have going for them is a good run game. They’re averaging close to 200 rushing yards per game and Ohio is giving up over 200 rush yards per game. Ohio is coming into this game rested after their sole victory against Akron a couple weeks ago. The same Akron team that has lost all of their other games by 30+ points but was within one score of upsetting Ohio going into the 4th quarter. Ohio may be better than Bowling Green but I just don’t see them winning by 24 points.

Getting back to a game with a lot more mainstream attention is the #1 ranked Alabama hosting the Auburn Tigers. It’s been 8 years since we’ve seen such a high point spread in the Iron Bowl. This looks like a trap spot for anyone hoping to take advantage of the 24.5 points but there is a reason the line is so high. Alabama has won their last 3 games by 30+ points. They’ve already had sound victories over two ranked opponents. As of the moment I’m writing this Auburn’s leading rusher, Tank Bigsby, and two of their offensive tackles are listed as questionable. If ruled out this line should shoot up even higher. Even with all 3 playing I still feel confident that Alabama will take the lead and keep their foot on the gas as they go for a strong win.

The Kris Bets This…

NCAAF (15–11) (57.69%) (+2.9 units) Syracuse +14.5 Bowling Green +24 Alabama -24.5

As usual these lines are from Draftkings. I always encourage you to check with Fanduel and any other options available to you in finding the best lines possible. I should have the NFL blog for week 12 up tomorrow. Feel free to keep an eye out on Facebook and Twitter for updates when the next blog is published. Have a great Thanksgiving weekend and best of luck with all of your bets!

Originally published at https://thekrisbets.com on November 26, 2020.