NBA Trade Deadline: Buyers or Sellers?
Decoding the future for seven of the NBA’s middle-class teams…
It’s only a few days until the All Star Break and just ten days until the NBA Trade Deadline. The first domino fell on Sunday with the Plumlee-Nurkic swap out West, and rumors swirled all weekend about where Jahlil Okafor may soon be headed.
Most of the teams at the top of the league are probably set, but this season has a bigger-than-usual middle class, full of teams that need to decide which way they’re going.
So with the trade deadline looming, which teams are buyers and which are the sellers?
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets already made their first move, giving up a Memphis first rounder and Jusuf Nurkic for the good Plumlee. It feels like an overpay, especially for a player who is going to need a hefty raise this summer, but Plumlee is almost as good a passer as Jokic and he allows Denver to go all-in on an offense focused around an awesome passing big.
Now it’s time for Denver to keep moving. In fact, there’s probably no team that should be a bigger buyer at the deadline. Denver might actually have a more enviable war chest than Boston at this point, with 13 guys that should be getting real playing time, every one of them on a good contract.
That’s a good problem but it also means Jokic and Murray are still somehow just 6th and 9th on the team in minutes per game. Too many good players can be a bad thing. Denver is in great position for both the 8-seed and their future, and it’s time to cash in some more chips.
Kenneth Faried is a really nice player but he’s only getting 22 minutes a game, more valuable at this point to another team. Malik Beasley has upside but probably not in Denver. Emmanuel Mudiay still has name value at least. Denver may no longer have the luxury of developing him, but another team may want to try. Guys like Will Barton, Wilson Chandler, and Darrell Arthur are all versatile players on nice contracts. Even Gallinari could be moved in the right deal, as long as Denver gets back another top scorer.
Denver has the third lowest payroll and a bright future. It could get even brighter if they cash in some assets and add a huge name at the deadline.
Verdict: BUYERS
Miami Heat
No team has been hotter over the past month. The 13-game win streak is over, but the Heat will presumably continue to play with the same fire. Puns aside, Dragic is playing like the star Miami thought they traded for a few years ago and the Heat have been a top-3 defense during this win streak.
Suddenly the Heat are right back in the playoff race, fighting with Charlotte, Milwaukee, Detroit, and Chicago for the two spots. And with all four of those teams moving in the wrong direction, Heat fans have plenty of reasons to be excited.
Dig a little deeper, and the picture isn’t quite as rosy. The 13-game win streak features a mere three teams with a winning record, and those were all at home. Frame it a little differently, and Miami is 14–11 over their last 25 games with losses to the Sixers, Lakers, Suns, and Pelicans. Still a solid record, but not exactly something we’d all be talking about.
As fun as the 13-game win streak was, it really put Miami in a bind. This is still a very average team on its best day and a poor one most of the others. Miami really needed that high draft pick to pay off this year. With the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, they can no longer rely on stars to just head to South Beach, and the cupboard is pretty bare going forward. Miami still owes two future first rounders to Phoenix, and they somehow already traded away each of their next five years of second round picks.
Miami doesn’t have a ton of assets to trade, but they do have some guys who looked really good over the last month. Dion Waiters has a $3 million player option he’s played his way out of, so he’s an expiring deal that might net a late first round pick from a playoff team desperate for a bench scorer. James Johnson and Rodney McGruder are worth at least a solid second round pick.
If Miami can recoup a couple picks by trading a few of these guys, they get to play with house money the rest of the season. Plus, Josh Richardson is back soon and the Heat might still sneak into the playoffs. If not, hopefully they move back into the high lottery and build for a real future.
Heat fans, it’s time to pay the piper from the glorious four-year LeBron run. But hey, you’ll always have those 13 games.
Verdict: SELLERS
Detroit Pistons
Detroit is a tough one. They’re currently tied with the Chicago Bulls for the East’s 7-seed. But the Heat, Hornets, and Bucks are all within a couple games reach. Detroit has a top ten defense but a bottom ten offense that has never truly clicked this year. They also have the third highest payroll in the league — and that’s before Kentavious Caldwell-Pope signs his likely max extension this summer.
Normally that might make it time to sell on him or some of the other pieces. The problem is Detroit has a lot of average, expensive players, and that doesn’t work. Chief among them is Reggie Jackson. The point guard was supposed to be the key to the offense but has struggled on both ends this season after missing time early with injury.
Is it possible he’s still not 100%? Detroit may not want to blow things up until they’re sure. Detroit is still really young — Andre Drummond and KCP are 23, Tobias Harris is 24, and both Stanley Johnson and Henry Ellenson are too young to drink.
Detroit doesn’t have a good team yet, but in a year or two they might. They could always dump Aron Baynes or Boban Marjanovic in a small deal. Otherwise it’s time to be patient and see how things work out.
Verdict: HOLD
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers made it to the second round of the Western Conference playoffs last year with predominantly the same roster. And even after a poor first half, they’re still just a game out of the playoff hunt.
But that can’t mask a flawed roster. The Blazers don’t play any defense, highlighted by two very talented guards who may or may not be able to play in a workable backcourt together. Meanwhile Portland dropped a metric ton of cash on Crabbe, Turner, Leonard, and Harkless. They’re arguably all overpaid and among some of the worst contracts in the league.
Portland also has the second highest payroll in the league behind only the defending champs. And they have the first or second most money committed for each of the next three years. Portland has at least $116 million committed through 2020–21, so they are already guaranteed to be over the cap, even without adding any rookies or depth.
Portland already made a first deal, moving on from Plumlee for Nurkic and a first. That was smart since they can’t possibly have been excited to go even further over the cap to re-sign Plumlee this summer. Nurkic isn’t as good, if he’s good at all, so the move hurts Portland in the short-term. And it might be time to keep moving in that direction.
This Blazers roster isn’t a title contender and may barely be a playoff contender. After the Nurkic deal, Portland now has three first round draft picks. It might be time to package one of those picks with Turner, Crabbe, or Leonard in an effort to unload a heap of salary.
It may even be time to seriously consider moving on from either Damian Lillard or C.J. McCollum, though that may not come til the summer. Either way, the ship on this roster has officially sailed.
Verdict: SELLERS
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas started out this season on an abysmal 2–13 run, but has rebounded to go 20–19 since. Better, but not exactly on par with the 13-game win streak of Miami. The Mavs are fun again and look pretty good at times with Dirk at center. If Dallas were to play .500 ball the rest of the way, it might be enough to make the playoffs.
They’re also one of six teams in the mix for just one 8-seed. Plus the reward is getting blown out by the Warriors in the first round. Nowitzki can’t have more than a year or two left, and Dallas owes him more than a heartwarming five-game first round loss.
Dallas has the second smallest payroll committed to next season. It looks like Wes Matthews is healthy again, Harrison Barnes is actually good, and Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell are real pieces. They’re all signed through next year and that means Dallas is set up for one last Dirk run, especially if they can add a big name or two this summer.
The guys not signed for next year are Andrew Bogut and Deron Williams. Both are still quality players worthy of playoff minutes and either could steal a low or future first round pick from the right team. Dallas needs to do right by Nowitzki and get any assets they can, move back into the high lottery, and dial up one last run for Dirk next year.
Verdict: SELLERS
Chicago Bulls
It’s been darn near impossible to figure out this Bulls team. Jimmy Butler has been even better than you think; Chicago would be lost without him. Dwyane Wade has had a pretty good season too, and the two have certainly gotten along well.
But the rest is a mess. Taj Gibson, Niko Mirotic, Cristiano Felicio, and Michael Carter-Williams are all on expiring contracts, and the Bulls can’t seem to find any regular playing time for Denzel Valentine, Bobby Portis, or Jerian Grant.
So what is Chicago to do? Selling Butler now may not be the right way to go. The cupboard would be bare and he’s just too good and on too good of a deal to get anywhere near his value. Butler is in his prime and Wade is 35, playing on fumes.
Since none of the rest fit anyway, why not auction off two or three of the pieces above for a third star and see what happens? Chicago is already all-in for present-day success. If there’s a team out there interested in enough Bulls riffraff, they may as well take a swing for the fences.
Verdict: BUYERS
Atlanta Hawks
A month ago, it looked like the Hawks were sure sellers when they started looking into every possibility to trade Paul Millsap and dumped Kyle Korver to the Cavaliers. But they’ve hung tough since and are just a couple games out of the East 3-seed heading toward the break.
But that could be nothing more than a mirage. Atlanta is probably not the bottom of the East top five as much as the top of a middling seven, with a point differential in line with the Bulls, Hornets, Heat, and Bucks. Yuck. Atlanta doesn’t have much lined up over the long-term, just the slightly-overpaid Dennis Schroeder and Kent Bazemore, plus some young wings and two more years of Dwight.
The key decision here is Millsap, and the decision shouldn’t be hard. Atlanta is a faux-contender this year and Millsap just turned 32 Friday. Do they really want to be on the hook for his hefty extension and lock themselves into the 4–7 seed for the next few years? If they can get a nice haul for Millsap instead and add that to the whopping seven extra draft picks they already have stashed, they set themselves up for an awesome rebuild. Guys like Mike Dunleavy, Kris Humphries, and Mike Scott are also cheap movable contracts.
The truth is this decision was already made last summer when Atlanta let Al Horford walk. The Hawks can’t afford to let Millsap leave for nothing too, and they can’t really afford to be on the hook of what will likely be a gruesome contract in a few years. It’s time to move on.