Which 2019 NBA free agents are really worth a max contract?

The NBA silly season is here, but which free agents are really worth the max deal, and which ones will kill their teams?

THE 2019 NBA SILLY SEASON IS HERE, as free agency kicks off at 6pm on June 30th while news continues to leak all week. It’s a massive NBA free agency season, with Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Durant headlining a long list of stars that includes Jimmy Butler, Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson, and many other stars. NBA teams have been hoarding cap space and clearing room for years for these guys. In the next week or two, the entire landscape of the NBA will change.

But not every star is worth a max contract, and not all max contracts are created equal. Players can be paid a higher max to stay with their current team, and max amounts change based on years of NBA service, plus there’s the super-max. So which of these guys are actually worth the full max, and which of today’s exciting free agents will turn into tomorrow’s bad contracts?

We’ll look at the six guys above, plus Kristaps Porzingis, D’Angelo Russell, Khris Middleton, Tobias Harris, Nikola Vucevic, and Al Horford. How many of this summer’s 12 key free agents are worth a max contract? I say only four or five. Players are almost always overpaid in free agency, but the most valuable asset in basketball is a superstar providing surplus value above even a max deal. Let’s rank all 12 in order of most to least deserving of a max contract…

TIER I — ANY CONTRACT THEY WANT

1. Kawhi Leonard

Kawhi is the best free agent on the market by such a wide margin it’s hardly even worth discussing. He is the Zion of this free agency. We’ll probably only get very good Kawhi in the regular season, something like 65 games at 4 VORP and 5 or 6 BPM, but he’s a basketball god in the playoffs, leaping to around 10 BPM and 9 VORP prorated his last three playoffs. That’s not quite LeBron but it’s as close as we’ve seen. We should be treating Kawhi’s free agency like LeBron’s. Any team that gets him is an instant title contender.

Don’t be surprised if Kawhi doesn’t take a full 4-year max, wherever he signs. I expect either a one-year deal with a player option in Toronto (we’ll call that a 1+1) or a 2+1 in Los Angeles, with a goal of entering free agency again in two summers when he can sign the biggest max available.

Fair value — Full max or any contract he wants Prediction — A one- or two-year max with a player option Verdict — Get him at any cost

2. Kyrie Irving

Surprise! Kevin Durant is not the second most valuable free agent on the market, not anymore. We’ll get back to him.

It’s a little bizarre how little attention we are giving to a player of Irving’s value on the market. Kyrie is pretty clearly a top-15 or better player, and unlike the other biggest names, still has a big chunk of his prime left. He just turned 27, so he can still get better and provide a bunch of very good years.

Kyrie is one of the most valuable offensive players in the league. In the last two seasons, Irving’s 6.4 OBPM ranks fifth in the NBA behind only Harden, Curry, LeBron, and Dame. He had a VORP over 4 both years, a season worthy of All-NBA consideration despite playing through a bunch of injuries in just 60 and 67 games. He is an elite offensive player and one of a handful of players in the game that can score anytime anywhere, and we already know he can do it at the highest level.

Kyrie Irving is a franchise changer. And yes, there are questions about exactly what sort of change he brings. But I think it’s oversimplified to hoist all of Boston’s problems on his shoulders. There were young players with changing roles, questionable coaching and front office decisions, and a coach’s favorite returning from career-changing injury as a poor locker room fit. Kyrie takes some of the blame, sure, and he doesn’t appear to be the guy you want “leading” your franchise. But on the court, he can lead any team any day.

You can find veteran leadership and balance personalities. There’s only one Kyrie, and he should command any contract he wants from any team.

Fair value — Full max or any contract he wants Prediction — Full 4-year $141m max with a player option Verdict — Absolutely worth the risk

TIER II — THE LONG-TERM INVESTMENT

3. Kevin Durant

We should probably be a little more afraid of Kevin Durant’s future than we’re letting on. John Wall tore his Achilles, and most have essentially left Wall for dead — I called him the worst contract in the NBA. Durant is better than Wall and not as dependent on athleticism, but he’s also a tall dude with a ton of mileage and a growing list of leg and foot injuries, and NBA history tells us to be very wary.

Durant is listed as 6'9", though he’s probably closer to 7-foot. Among players 6'9" or taller in NBA history, Durant ranks top 50 in minutes played. He’s played more minutes already than Chris Webber did his whole career, more than Luol Deng or Kyle Korver. Add in two more 2500-minute regular seasons (around average) and now he’s top 25 in minutes among big men, and that’s not accounting for the many deep playoff runs either.

Durant has more mileage than you think. He might also be 32 years old before he plays another minute, if he sits the whole year out rehabbing the Achilles. Durant is a lock to get the max somewhere, which means some team is going to pay KD $38.2 million to rehab this year. Imagine a world where Durant is only eligible to sign a one-year deal. How much would he be worth? Maybe something like $8 to $12 million, in hopes that you get a 75% Durant back in time for a playoff run? Even then, he’s only worth that to like 5–7 teams where 75% of Durant is enough to matter, and still he’s overpaid by like $30 million in that scenario.

He’ll be back the following season, but he’ll be 32 and still only 16 months removed from an injury that usually takes years to come back from. Durant the last two seasons has been under 5 BPM and 5 VORP in the regular season, great numbers but nothing like the MVP performance he’s had in the past. Now make him a couple years older and take away 20% of his ability as an approximation of the Achilles damage and now he’s a 3 or 4 VORP player, something like top 20 and still an All-Star, but not KEVIN DURANT. Maybe he can get to old KD in the playoffs, in which he’s worth any price, but we don’t know. And we might not get to find out for 22 months.

Durant will get the full max, and unlike Kawhi or Kyrie, he has no reason to leave a penny on the table. He’s already in the highest salary bracket, and the Achilles injury puts his future in question enough to lock in the longest, biggest contract he can find. That means a 5-year $221-million contract from the Warriors or 4 years and $164 million from anyone else. There’s more risk here than anyone would let on. Even if peak KD comes back, he opts out of the final year and misses the entire first year of the deal, so you’re paying $120 million the next three years and only get him for two of them. He has to be really good to be worth that. But it’s Kevin Durant, so he might be.

You win in the NBA because you have a top-5 player carrying you to a title, and we know Durant can be that player. You have to give him the shot. But you’re going to overpay, and this could go very south.

Fair value — 4 years $120 million or 5 years $155 million Prediction — Full 4-year $164 max, or 5/$221m in Golden State Verdict — Swallow hard and take the leap

TIER III — WORTH A LOT, BUT NOT QUITE THE MAX

4. Al Horford

Al Horford is really, really good. We already know he’s awesome in the playoffs, fits almost any lineup, and terrific as a complimentary player. He’s older at age 33 but has had an excellent aging curve, having played 67+ games in all but two seasons with little per-minute decline. Horford is a versatile defender and a rounded offensive player that can pass, shoot, post, or stretch the floor. In short, he does everything a championship team wants.

Any team in the NBA would benefit with the addition of Horford. He has a top-20 BPM the last two seasons, and he gets even better and more valuable in the playoffs where his metrics all go up and he can stay on the court in any matchup. How many big men are you certain you’d rather have in a playoff series than Al Horford? The list is super short. He is a true 16-game player, and the fact that he’s not going to get a max contract makes him all the more valuable.

Imagine Horford as the uber-P.J. Tucker in Houston. What would he look like in the Brook Lopez role next to Giannis? Think how good Portland could be with Big Al. He’ll make any team better. You’re going to scoff at how much old man Horford makes per year on his new deal. He’ll be worth it.

Fair value — 4 years $110 million, or 3/$95m Prediction — 4 years $110 million with a team option Verdict — Will likely be a relative bargain

5. D’Angelo Russell (restricted FA)

Surprise, again!

Regular readers know I’m not the biggest D-Lo fan. I did not think he deserved an All-Star berth and have been disparaging his future contract all year. But as I studied Russell more, I see a player that might be worth the investment.

Russell is still so young. He’s entering his age-23 season, and since most contracts are 3+1, you’re paying for ages 23, 24, and 25. Many modern point guards break out around age 24 or 25. The best is yet to come for D-Lo.

And that’s good, because Russell has plenty to improve on. His shooting numbers are fine, but not great. His efficiency is pretty meh, with a declining free-throw rate. Are we positive Russell didn’t just get hot shooting this year? One of his biggest statistical improvements has been his 10-to-16 foot pull-up. Will his three pointer keep improving? But the biggest single step is his passing, where Russell’s doubled his assist rate since his rookie season and has quietly become one of the league’s better passers and distributors. That skill isn’t going anywhere, so if his iso scoring ability continues to improve, he’ll quickly become a top-10 point guard with room to move up from there.

There’s one other key factor— because Russell is so young, his max contract is far less than almost everyone else on this list. His max from non-Nets teams is 4 years for $117 million, and that’s really 3/$86m since that he’d likely opt out of the final season. As quickly as the cap is rising, that means your team will be paying Russell only 20 to 25% of its cap, where most here are in the 30 to 35% range. And unlike those more expensive players, there’s every reason to believe Russell is still scratching the surface.

Right now, Russell is not a max player. His most elite skill today is confidence. But he’s at least a league-average point guard and should keep improving. I’d say he’s worth something like $16 to $20 million right now. Add in a boost each year going forward for improvement, inflate a bit for the cost of upside, and you basically get something close to Russell’s actual max. And unlike most of the other guys on this list, there’s real potential he could improve past the value of the contract and actually provide surplus value.

Fair value — 4 years $105 million Prediction — Full 4-year max $117 million Verdict — Probably worth the risk, with big potential surplus value

6. Jimmy Butler

Despite all the locker room issues, Jimmy Butler remains a top-20 player that does a bit of everything. His defense has probably gotten a little overrated but he’s still a plus defender and a good iso scorer with a knack for showing up in the biggest moments. Butler is a baller.

He also turns 30 in September, and he’s already only healthy enough to play 60 or 65 games most seasons. Let’s review a few key Thibs guys. Joakim Noah had one last great season at age 28 before injuries ruined him. Luol Deng fell off after age 27 and plummeted at age 31. Derrick Rose got hit early and never recovered. Jimmy Butler is none of those players, but the Thibs workload history is a real concern. Butler’s already older than where all those players fell off, and when they fell, they dropped almost entirely off the NBA map. Butler’s missed at least 15 games in all but two seasons. We know he’s not good enough as the best player, and we’re not even sure he’s enough as the second banana. The age, injury history, and locker room concerns are three major red flags. Jimmy Butler is absolutely a max player right at this moment. But there are scary signs here, and a long contract could get very ugly. Butler can really only get worse and play less — and we already know he struggles to accept a smaller role.

If Butler were willing to take a short-term contract, great. The longer his deal gets, the bigger the potential for it to turn sour. Butler could get $190 million for 5 years in Philly. That would pay him $43 million for an age 34 season he’ll probably spend on the bench watching right as Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons hit their peaks.

Fair value — 4 years $105 million or 3 years $90 million Prediction — Just below the max, something like 4/$125m or 5/$165m Verdict — The downside far outweighs the upside

7. Kemba Walker

Kemba Walker is a really good basketball player. He has improved every single season he’s been in the NBA, and he ranks 7th in the NBA in OBPM the last two seasons behind only Harden, Curry, LeBron, Dame, Kyrie, and Jokic. Walker is an elite offensive player and stud pick-and-roll operator we deserve to see in some big moments.

The problem with Kemba is his size. History tells us the size becomes a bigger issue as Walker ages. Kemba is 29, so a 4-year deal signs him through age 32. History tells us few NBA stars age gracefully into their 30s, but the aging curve is especially difficult on small point guards. Only six players since 1980 have made All-NBA at 6'2" or shorter in their 30s: John Stockton (x6), Tim Hardaway (x3), Tony Parker (x2), Chris Paul, Allen Iverson, and Tiny Archibald. Iverson had one good Denver year in his 30s before falling off. Parker fell hard after age 30. CP3 was awesome until this season but can’t stay healthy. Kevin Johnson’s career was basically over at 30. Damon Stoudamire tanked at age 31. Isiah Thomas got hurt at age 29 and was never great again. For pretty much all of these players except Stockton, age 30 or 31 was the beginning of the end, and for most of them, they fell off hard. The lack of size already makes Kemba bad on defense, and it’ll get worse as he ages. These guys would’ve been hunted mercilessly on defense in today’s playoff era.

Kemba is awesome right now. On a two-year max, Walker is worth every penny. But he’s going to push for four years (or five if he stays in Charlotte) and the back half of this contract is likely to turn extremely sour. For the Hornets, whose only upside is guys like Malik Monk, Miles Bridges, and P.J. Washington, those guys won’t be ready before Kemba is too old, so that kills any real value. A full $190-million Hornets max for Kemba would be an abject disaster. For a team like the Lakers, Walker makes more sense. They might be able to stomach a rough year or two on a contract for the value Kemba brings now. Walker can be a valuable signing for a team that can use his abilities right now in the next year or two before the end comes.

Fair value — 4 years $105 million or 3 years $90 million Prediction — Full max with team-friendly final year, so 4/$141 Verdict — Will be overpaid, but the question is by how much

TIER IV — THE ELITE THIRD BANANAS

8. Klay Thompson

I love Klay as much as anyone, but with news that the Warriors will indeed sign Thompson to the full $190-million max over the next five years, I fear he is about to be extremely overpaid. Thompson’s injury doesn’t worry me. He’s a hard worker and I expect he’ll be back around the All-Star break with no long-term effects. But it does cost him 50+ games this season, so you’re paying big in hopes of getting him ready for a playoff run.

The problem is I’m not sure Klay Thompson was ever a max player, injury or not. It’s so hard to know what his true value is. The shooting gravity, the ability to score 37 in a quarter or hit 10 Game 6 threes, the will to come out on a torn ACL and hit free throws, all legendary. But the advanced numbers have never been able to measure up to the way we talk about Klay. Metrics like DBPM and DRPM show him to be a weak defender. He doesn’t rebound or pass, doesn’t do much of anything besides shoot the living daylights out of the ball. But shooting can only be so valuable, and Thompson has only ever had one 1-BPM season and has never hit 3 VORP, typically under 2. That puts him in elite role player range. Maybe that’s because it’s the role he’s given in Golden State, and maybe instead of 22/4/2, he’d put up more like 28/7/5 on a team with a bigger role. I’m not sure I buy it.

We’re losing most of the first year of this deal, so that’s already $20 million or more down the drain. Is Klay so good he can be worth $20 million in surplus value on top of getting paid $40+ million a year as he hits his 30s? That’s an awful lot of expectation, without much to explain away him being worth that much. We’re about to find out how replaceable or irreplaceable Klay is next season, when the Ws sign someone like Wayne Ellington to fill his role for $3 million. But by the time they find out the answer, it may already be too late.

Fair value — 4 years $85 million or 5 years $100 million Prediction —Full 5 years $190 million Verdict — Paying for his legend and the moments, not his value

9. Kristaps Porzingis (restricted FA)

Kristaps Porzingis has played 186 games in four seasons, only 47 per year. Porzingis is crazy talented. He’s also a giant human with a troublesome injury history, and he hasn’t been as good as you think even when he does play. He’s a 0-BPM and 1-VORP guy so far, essentially replacement level. That wouldn’t be too bad with his upside flashes at his age if the injuries didn’t complicate things so much.

Porzingis is a true unicorn, an elite shot blocker and terrific shooter. Imagine him in the newly-created Brook Lopez role protecting the rim and stretching the court. But beyond the high block rate, KP’s defensive metrics are poor. He’s not a great rebounder, and his 2-point percentage is troublingly low for a 7'3" dude. By what he’s done on the court, Porzingis is the worst player on this list by a wide margin. This is all projection and potential.

There’s reason for hope. The Knicks are a disaster, and Porzingis never had any help. He’ll get more good looks near the rim with Luka Doncic, and Rick Carlisle won’t let him take the glut of mid-range jumpers he was jacking in New York. He’s also not quite as injury-prone as the numbers look since neither of his teams had any real incentive to play him this year.

What does a fully-realized Porzingis look like? Probably something like a star version of this year’s Brook Lopez. Maybe that means 22 points, 7 boards, and 3 blocks with rim protection and floor spacing. How valuable is that player? Lopez was under 3 VORP this year and barely above average defensively among centers. KP has more offensive talent. His body seems too frail to hold up defensively at the five, and his rebounding hurts the team there too, but he loses some offensive value and uniqueness at the four. I’m not sure I buy the ultimate upside. Is it something like a Melo or Tobias scorer that can block shots? That feels like a third banana to me.

Add in the injury risk and the fact that Porzingis’s talents require a unique team building effort. His contract offers some surplus upside, but I’m not sure how much. The structure of the deal will matter. How much is guaranteed? Is there a team option or a player option? The Mavs need to protect themselves. The good news is KP’s max is not a massive number, and unless he falls apart to injury, his youth and upside should maintain trade value. You’re paying entirely for potential, but you probably have to take the shot.

Fair value — 4 years $75 million Prediction — Full 4-year “max” with lots of team protection Verdict — Probably close enough to give it a shot

TIER V — NOT EVEN CLOSE TO MAX GUYS

10. Nikola Vucevic

Nik Vucevic was really great this year and much more valuable than the two guys below him ever project to be. Vooch’s BPM the last two years is 4.9, tied for 14th in the NBA with Kevin Durant. He had a 5.3 VORP, worthy of his All-Star selection and good enough to have been in the All-NBA discussion alongside names like Karl-Anthony Towns.

The question is whether Vooch is really that player. Did he really break out at age 28, or was this just a massive contract year? He added a three but it’s only around average, and his attempt rate actually dropped this year. Vucevic saw a big efficiency spike, but the bigger improvement came on defense, with plenty of help from the system and talent around him. Vooch does a lot of things well but doesn’t really have an elite skill, and at age 29, it’s more likely this was a one-year blip than a true breakout he can improve upon.

Vucevic was so good this year he doesn’t need to improve to be worth the max, even in this era of depleted center value. But what if the defense falls back some as he loses foot speed and the improved shooting efficiency was a fluke? Before this year, we counted Vooch to be a $12-to-14-millionguy. How sure can we be that he’s worth a lot more than that now? His contract has the widest range of outcomes on this list.

Fair value — 4 years $75 million Prediction — 3 years $75 million or 4/$90m Verdict — Depends on the market, but could actually be a value play

11. Khris Middleton

I fear the Bucks are about to make an expensive mistake on Khris Middleton. Middleton is nice. Twenty points, five boards, and four dimes on 50/37/86 shooting is valuable, certainly. But is it max-player valuable? Is it tether-your-future-with-Giannis-to-Middleton-as-his-running-mate valuable?

Middleton is not a good defender. He’s a decent passer. Mostly he’s an efficint scorer, around 56% true shooting. Like everything else about Middleton, that’s good but not great, a player that helps any team but not one you break the bank to add or keep. Middleton has never cleared 2 VORP. He doesn’t rank in the top 100 BPM the last two seasons. His best skill is creating his own shot, a mid-range pull-up that is admittedly more important on a team with a Freak that can’t shoot yet. It’s always valuable to have a guy that can get his own shot in the playoffs… but how valuable? How much should Milwaukee pay to mask Giannis’s weakness?

Fair value — 4 years $75 million Prediction — A hair below the max, enough to sell the fans: 5/$170m Verdict — Lovely player that’s about to be super overpaid

12. Tobias Harris

Harris is a bigger version of Khris Middleton. He has never cleared 2 VORP, putting him squarely in the solid role player range, and he ranks outside the top 100 BPM the last couple years. Harris is a below average defender at a position where it matters. He’s an elite shooter and efficient scorer that probably needs more shots to be worth a monster contract. What’s the upside here? Maybe Harris can be a secondary scorer on an elite team with enough defense, rebounding, and creation to balance. Yay?

Think of it another way — how is Tobias Harris much different than Harrison Barnes? Put Tobias in the HB role for the early Warriors. He would’ve filled the role just fine, offering a little better shooting with less defensive versatility. The Ws would’ve won the title with Tobias Harris, then replaced him, just like Barnes. How much better is Harris than Barnes? Both feel more valuable as lead scorers on below average teams or playing a role on a cheap contract for a good team. Neither of those scenarios is in play for Barnes anymore as much as he makes, and Harris is about to be in the same situation.

Tobias Harris and Khris Middleton are nice players you can live without. The only max offer either is getting is from their own team outbidding itself to keep them. They best be very, very careful. ■

Fair value — 4 years $75 million Prediction — Short of max in 3 years $75 million range Verdict — Hard pass anywhere near the max

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