The NBA Franchise HOPE Rankings

Hope springs eternal — for some NBA franchises. Which teams have the best outlook over the next few years, and which franchises are facing nothing but despair and gloom?

HOPE SPRINGS ETERNAL. There’s nothing like the NBA offseason, when every team is just a perfect few draft picks, a couple key free agent signings, and one masterpiece trade away from vaulting to the top of the league. The league changes more rapidly than ever thanks to shorter and shorter contracts, and that means the NBA hierarchy is constantly changing.

Still, not all hope is created equal. Some hope is long into the future (I see you, Hawks and Grizzlies fans), some is more clear and real (LAKERZ), and other hope is more existential and non-existent (come on down, Wizards!). I think it’s interesting to just zoom out and look at the league as a whole, so I keep a constant HOPE rankings for NBA franchises. Of course every team wants to win an NBA championship, so any team with a shot ranks near the top of the list. But exciting young cores, stocked asset cupboards, and ginormous amounts of cap space also bring hope at this time of year. For other teams stuck on the treadmill of mediocrity, hope is more of a four-letter word.

I’ve been keeping HOPE rankings for two or three years and always intend to do a deep dive. Now is a terrible time to finally publish them since the entire league is about to go nuclear in the next two weeks, but I wanted to get a quick look at where things stand as we head into free agency, and we’ll revisit this in a month once the dust settles and come back from time to time to check out how the league is evolving. I’m considering the whole big picture here, including players, coaching, ownership, cap space, draft picks and other assets, everything — the only limit is that I’m looking at a three-year window, and mostly two right now with so many unsigned players.

So just how happy should NBA fans be with their team right now, and which franchise have the most hope? Let’s count them all down from (l)A(kers) to (wi)Z(ards)…

TIER I — NO HOPE

30. Washington Wizards 29. Charlotte Hornets 28. Detroit Pistons 27. San Antonio Spurs

The Washington Wizards have become the laughingstock of the NBA. They still have no GM somehow, with the draft in the rear-view mirror and free agency just days away. They’re home to the clear worst contract in the NBA, a super-max for John Wall that was an overpay before his Achilles tear and a natural disaster after it. Wall is signed four more years for $171 million, and it looks like he won’t play this year. Who is Washington’s second best player after Bradley Beal? For that matter, how many other Wizards can you even name? This team is stuck going nowhere until Wall steps on the court and looks like an All-Star. Heck, let’s just see them sign a GM and start with that.

It feels like Washington, Charlotte, and Detroit are all hoping to contend for the same 7- and 8-seeds out East. What’s the point? The Pistons made the playoffs this year and got thrashed in four games by the Bucks. What did that do for anyone? Charlotte is stuck between a rock and a hard place. They can re-sign Kemba by offering him $100 million too much and lock in a claim as the 17th best team in the league, or they can let him walk and still be stuck with a ugly, overpaid roster without any young blue-chip players. Detroit is locked into Blake and Drummond, and Charlotte’s best-case scenario right now is basically becoming the 2019 Pistons.

The Spurs feel like watching a beloved grandfather pass away. Maybe Pop will work his voodoo magic and get them back into the playoffs yet again — it never looks likely this time of year — but what’s the point? When is the next time any team in this tier wins a playoff series? It’s gonna be awhile. San Antonio just won five years ago and still has Pop, but they also just watched Kawhi quit the team and immediately win a title. There’s some hope with a future back court of Derrick White and Dejounte Murray, but this team is stuck in the 90s and it feels like it’s time to pull the plug and whisper goodbye.

TIER II — DELUSIONS OF GRANDEUR

26. Cleveland Cavaliers 25. Chicago Bulls 24. Phoenix Suns 23. New York Knicks

The tier title sort of speaks for itself. The Cavs are on a long road back. They have an owner everyone hates and still owe a lot of money to LeBron-era players, and the team’s three prized assets are all different versions of the same thing, a ball-dominant me-first handler. They’re hoping one of them hits, but as the old saying goes, if you think you have three quarterbacks, you have no quarterback.

Bulls and Suns fans amp up the delusion because both fan bases legitimately think their teams can make a playoff run this season. Phoenix is still clearly a bottom three team in the West, and for all the numbers Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton put up, the Ws just haven’t come. Phoenix has a lot of interesting young pieces (AND Cam Johnson!) but they always do, the result of picking high in the lottery year after year. And like the Bulls, they have a front office that seems to have no real plan and no idea what they’re doing. Chicago has young talent too and a more open East, but there’s no defense to be found, and the talent doesn’t fit with the coaching style after they stupidly brought back Jim Boylen. The only thing we know for sure about the future for both of these two teams is that it perpetually remains a few years away.

And then there’s New York, where hope springs eternal as long as you forget that James Dolan exists and that this has been the worst franchise in the NBA for two decades. The Knicks jettisoned Kristaps Porzingis and tanked all year for Zion, KD, and Kyrie, and it looks increasingly like they’ll end up with a one-year balloon payment to Boogie Cousins. Maybe next year, Knicks fans.

TIER III — I MEAN, AT LEAST IT’S FLORIDA

22. Orlando Magic 21. Miami Heat

The Magic have a bunch of fun young players and are finally near the end of some rough contracts, but the last fun guard in Orlando was like Darrell Armstrong or Penny Hardaway. But hey! Orlando won a playoff game, so that’s something!

Miami legitimately had six different contracts I considered for my 20 worst contracts article, and they’re still tied to most of the money for awhile. But as long as Pat Riley and South Beach are around, they always seem to get into the conversation. Soon enough those bad contracts will package themselves into Jimmy Butler or Chris Paul, or they’ll turn into Andrew Wiggins and actually develop him, or they’ll throw in Bam or Richardson and land a real superstar. And failing all those things, they’ll just go down to the beach and enjoy some sunshine, so really, how bad can it be?

TIER IV — HOPE FOR TOMORROW

20. Minnesota Timberwolves 19. Memphis Grizzlies 18. Sacramento Kings

As a lifelong Wolves fan, this is awfully depressing. I mentioned that I’ve kept these HOPE rankings updated over the past few years. A couple years ago, Minnesota, Milwaukee, and Philly were all about even in the bottom half of the top-10, ready to build around future superstars. The Bucks and Sixers now rank top three on this list, and the Wolves are in a tier with the Grizz and Kings. And it’s hardly KAT’s fault. He has been awesome, and Minnesota fans are putting a lot of hope into the team’s new leadership, but they’re stuck with a ton of bad money right now and a long road back to relevance. They’re not likely to make the playoffs in a loaded West this year, and the best road back at this point is probably just ticking another year off the Wiggins and Dieng contracts, rehabbing some value, and trying to build again around KAT and Jarrett Culver for a new window a few years down the road. The good news is that everyone important is here for awhile. But it’s gonna be awhile until it matters, unless they magically find the a Wiggins suitor.

The Wolves are probably better than the Kings and Grizzlies right now, but I’d rather be a Sacto or Memphis fan. There’s real buzz for both franchises, and there ought to be. The Grizz ranked bottom-5 in just about every version of these rankings I’ve done the last few years but suddenly have an exciting young trio in Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke, and Jaren Jackson Jr. It’s going to take awhile, but there’s a vision and a plan now. They’ll hope to look in a year or two like the Kings did last year. Sacramento is building around Fox, Buddy, and Bagley and probably believes they can make the playoffs this year, and they have a pretty clean slate with room to add talent or take on salary too. We’ll see if they can keep the positive momentum building.

TIER V — SMALL MARKET SUCCESS

17. Oklahoma City Thunder 16. Indiana Pacers

This, unfortunately, might be as good as it gets for these teams. And in a small market, this counts as a success. The Pacers and Thunder are clear playoff teams, and both of them head into each season believing they could make a Conference Finals run if they get the sort of bounce the Blazers got this summer. Sometimes that has to be enough. The Pacers get Victor Oladipo back soon and have a strong culture and as good a team as anyone until all the dust settles in the East. The Thunder never manage to develop pieces around their stars but still boast Russ and PG. But Westbrook has never won a playoff series without KD, and the team has no real way to improve itself and a few nasty Westbrook contract years looming. It really only gets worse for OKC.

TIER VI — ONE STAR CHANGES EVERYTHING

15. Atlanta Hawks 14. Dallas Mavericks 13. New Orleans Pelicans

Hope is a beautiful thing. These three teams probably won’t make the playoffs this season. They’ll target a year from now, but even that is an early exit. Still, there’s a ton of positive momentum and hope building for all three of these franchises. The NBA will forever be a star-driven league, and one star changes everything for these three teams. And they’re ranked in order of star upside.

Trae Young isn’t going to be Steph Curry, so he needs the most help. But he has the most help in this trio, a real starting five with a lot of shooting and upside plus a real running mate in John Collins. Being in the East ain’t all bad either. The Mavs are next. It looks like they’ll re-sign Porzingis with a max offer, and Luka just had maybe the best season ever by a teenager. Add in Mark Cuban, Rick Carlisle, cap room, and no income tax, and things could move positive very quickly. Still, no team is hotter than the Pelicans right now. They’ll be the League Pass darlings with Zion, Lonzo, Ingram, Jrue, and more, and David Griffin’s moves have stocked the cupboards with draft picks and hope. It’s pretty much impossible to lose Anthony Davis and move up in the hope rankings, but Griffin pulled it off.

TIER VII — THE GLASS CEILING

12. Brooklyn Nets 11. Portland Trail Blazers 10. Utah Jazz 9. Denver Nuggets 8. Boston Celtics

It’s hard to read the tea leaves in Brooklyn. It sure looks like they’re getting Kyrie, but if he’s not coming with a second star, I’m not convinced they are really that much better of a team than they were this season. They’re one of a few teams whose ranking will change a lot two weeks from now. If things break right, they could suddenly be the team to beat out East.

Portland, Utah, and Denver fans will all think they should rank higher on this list. I just worry about the ultimate ceiling for all three teams. Isn’t the ceiling a lot like what the Blazers just did this year? Catching the right bracket matchups and making a spirited run to the Conference Finals? It’s hard to see any iteration of these teams actually winning a championship or even getting to the Finals. Perhaps instead these are the new Raptors — but the Raptors from a year ago, before rolling the dice on the one-year Kawhi window. There’s value in being close enough to be one big move away. And heck, there’s value just being one of the top contenders in a loaded West. Portland may have just peaked with this core. Denver is young and getting better, and now they add in the Michael Porter Jr. and Bol Bol X-factors. Utah leaps a level with Mike Conley. They have to believe they have a real shot at making the WCF in the next few years. But is that it?

Did we all have a good time making fun of the Celtics? Good, because this is still a team in really strong shape with three very good young players in Tatum, Smart, and Brown plus Brad Stevens, Danny Ainge, good cap shape, and plenty of youth and picks going forward. Losing Kyrie and Horford, if indeed that happens, is certainly a step back in this current window, but the long-term window is still looking very good for this team. They’ll take a step back, regroup, and be right there again very soon.

TIER VIII — THE STAR GAZERS

7. Houston Rockets 6. Los Angeles Clippers 5. Toronto Raptors

Remember, it’s still June. This tier will be completely obliterated in a week or two. Kawhi looks like a Raptor or a Clipper. The other one could be left holding very little, at least for a year or reset. The Rockets feel like they may have missed their window, but then again, it felt like that a year ago too, and the window just cracked wide open. Houston’s got Harden, Morey, and D’Antoni, and they always have their meddling fingers in the middle of everything. Even if they just run it back again, you have to figure they have as good a shot as anyone this year.

The Clippers really believe Kawhi or KD will be coming, though it may be another year now, and they have the cap room and the right young pieces to surround them, plus the superstar whisperer in Jerry West. They’re looming and could vault atop this list if things break. Toronto is due for a hard reality check in a couple seasons with only Pascal Siakam really on his way up, but who really cares right now? The Toronto Raptors are NBA champions. And until Kawhi inks his name elsewhere and takes the glow off that sentence, it really doesn’t matter what the future looks like.

TIER IX — WE CAN WIN THIS THING

4. Golden State Warriors 3. Philadelphia 76ers 2. Milwaukee Bucks 1. Los Angeles Lakers

The Warriors have obviously ranked atop this list in every iteration for years. They’re at least in the top tier still, though a clear step back with what could be a lost season ahead. But everyone expects Klay to come back, and KD staying is a real possibility now. This has been an insane five-year run either way, and they still have Steph Curry, a new stadium, and a lot of great memories. It ain’t over yet.

Milwaukee and Philly feel best about their East chances right now, mostly because they have the two starriest stars. Milwaukee’s star is brighter, and if they bring everyone back, they’ll be the East favorites, no matter what else happens. Philly begs to differ. They swear they were a bounce-bounce-bounce-bounce away from a title — never mind the fact that they still would’ve had to win in overtime, beat a better Bucks team on the road, and catch the same breaks against the Warriors — and they still seem confident that they’ll bring Jimmy and Tobias back, and that that’s a good thing. Color me skeptical on the whole Process. I’m not convinced the pieces fit, and I’m sneakily wondering if bringing Butler and Harris back might mean a Ben Simmons trade is not long behind. But I think the Sixers genuinely believe they can bring everyone back, add some depth, and enter the season as favorites.

But they’re wrong, because no matter what they do with their $32 million, the Lakers are already the 2020 favorites. LeBron and Brow are enough, and it’s those guys and max room and L.A. so some third star is coming. Add in Kuzma and probably Reggie Bullock and you’ve got a starting lineup, and you know there will be bargain veterans, trades, and buy-out guys in February and March. It’ll take them all year to figure things out, but then it will be April and they’ll have two players better than almost any opponent, and we know how that usually turns out.

So what if the Lakers mortgaged their entire future? Lakers exceptionalism is back!! And all it took was sucking five years and trading away three top-5 picks and three more firsts, then lucking into two of the league’s most talented players in history deciding to join you. ■

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