My Patagonian Backyard Is Burning — And This Only Feels Like The Beginning

Until we halt this trajectory and strive for net-zero emissions, the Earth will continue to heat. And burn.

The alarm rings at 6:37 am. It’s another Monday morning here in Patagonia. But this won’t go down as any other regular Monday. Because the sky, normally a serene morning blue, has taken on an apocalyptic hue. It’s an unsettling sight — the ominous glow of a wildfire raging.

The sky mixes gray with sepia and red: it’s the color of hell and death. An improbable south wind bringing the fire plume from Los Alerces, which continues to burn, having already consumed over 3200 hectares? No, this isn’t a distant spectacle; it’s unfolding in our very backyard. The horizon reflects an inferno raging perilously close to home.

News spread fast: the flames rage in Brazo Tristeza, just 20 kilometers away. A place we know too well, a sanctuary nestled within Nahuel Huapi’s seven arms. Now, a natural haven turned into a blazing inferno.

The cause? An unattended campfire, a careless act in a region where fires are strictly forbidden for obvious reasons. It’s so clear that this was the cause because the intangible area from where the first focus was recognized is only accessible by lake route.

Yes, there is a group of individuals who bear the maximum responsibility and blame for the thick cloud of smoke and ashes looming in the background view of my living room, for centuries-old trees and the habitats of countless species being erased.

But beneath this immediate cause lies a broader truth: human presence is the common denominator in these tragedies.

Whether intentional, accidental, or due to negligence, within National Parks, Reserves, or urban settlements, the problem is and always has been our presence. Every summer, like clockwork, fires ravage our landscapes. Many are contained in time; others devour entire ecosystems and populations, leaving devastation in their wake.

There are always people involved. Always.

Even if there are fires sparked by lightning storms, humans have determined the climatic context for that natural phenomenon to find a situation where the vegetation is in high temperatures and low precipitation, flammable and vulnerable to the slightest spark. Dry vegetation is pure fuel.

According to Thomas Kitzberger, a Patagonian specialist from CONICET and author of ‘Projections of fire probability and ecosystem vulnerability under 21st-century climate across a trans-Andean productivity gradient in Patagonia’:

Climate Change is generating a reorganization in the general circulation of the atmosphere, and that complexly affects precipitation patterns (changing rainfall patterns, which are decreasing in this area, generating water stress in the forest).

In the northwest of Patagonia, we are experiencing a process of desiccation that has been going on for over 50 years, due to the reduced influx of moist fronts from the Pacific that used to bring rainfall, as a result of changes in the Antarctic Oscillation and aggravated by more extreme cycles of the El Niño phenomenon and its dry phase La Niña.

Kitzberger believes that during this century, wildfire cycles could double or triple in northwestern Patagonia, with the global temperature increasing:

Even though it rained a lot in 2023 due to El Niño, we have had three long years of extreme drought from La Niña. At the same time, El Niño brings rain for part of the year, but it also marks record peaks of high temperatures in summer, which dry out vegetation.

While those directly responsible may bear the guilt of their actions and will likely carry this wildfire on their conscience for the rest of their lives, the underlying factors driving these catastrophes are far-reaching.

We humans, our collective and destructive actions, our relentless march of urbanization accumulated over years dictated by predatory capitalism and a lack of awareness and empathy with the natural environment — they all converge to create the perfect conditions for disaster. And in the midst of the worst heatwave Patagonia has ever seen, the forest in my backyard burns uncontrollably.

And this only feels like the beginning.

Earth Boiled in 2023 — But Nobody Understands How This Happened

Last year rewrote the record books in fiery letters, marking the hottest stretch of time since records began in the mid-1800s — and likely for many thousands of years before providing dramatic testimony of how much warmer and more dangerous today’s climate is from the cooler one in which human civilization developed.

Not only did 2023 turn out to be the warmest year on record, 1.48 C° hotter than the pre-fossil fuel-burning era (between 1.34 C° and 1.54 C° above pre-industrial levels across different temperature datasets), approaching the 1.5C target set in the Paris Agreement, but it fell well outside the confidence intervals of any of the estimates.

The year was the warmest ever over land and oceans. Month after month, temperature records fell like dominoes, with September delivering a jaw-dropping 0.5°C spike that left us reeling. Seventy-seven countries, home to a quarter of the Earth’s population, bore witness to their hottest year on record. Arctic and Antarctic ice witnessed alarming retreats while rising sea levels ushered in a new era of extreme weather events. Everything turned MEGA: heatwaves, unpredictable tropical storms escalating into catastrophic hurricanes, wildfires, and droughts.

And while there are a number of factors that researchers have proposed to explain 2023’s exceptional warmth, scientists still lack a clear explanation for why global temperatures were so unexpectedly high.

Over the longer term, human emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, alongside planet-cooling aerosols, are the main driver of global temperatures. Global temperatures have risen by approximately 1.3C since pre-industrial times as a result of human activity. However, on top of long-term warming, global temperatures vary year to year by up to 0.2C.

These variations are primarily driven by El Niño and La Niña events that redistribute heat between the atmosphere and oceans. However, other factors, such as the 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga volcano, the 11-year solar cycle, and changes in short-lived climate forcers, can influence year-to-year temperature changes.

Yet, even with these factors at play, the sheer magnitude of 2023’s warmth left scientists scratching their heads. Even El Niño — the usual suspect behind record-warm years — does not clearly explain 2023 temperatures. The current El Niño is expected to peak soon and is forecast to dissipate by the middle of 2024. Nonetheless, its legacy will likely contribute significantly to warm global average temperatures in 2024.

Meanwhile, scientists said recently that the Earth’s life support systems had been so damaged that the planet was “well outside the safe operating space for humanity.”

Professor Andrew Dessler, at Texas A&M University in the US, said of the record set in 2023:

“Every year for the rest of your life will be one of the hottest [on] record. This, in turn, means that 2023 will end up being one of the coldest years of this century. Enjoy it while it lasts.”

2023 is not just a memory — it’s a harbinger of what’s to come.

What does 2024 have in store for us?

Four distinct predictions, ranging from the UK Met Office to NASA’s Dr. Gavin Schmidt, Berkeley Earth, and Carbon Brief, offer glimpses into the immediate future, using the average of six different temperature records (NASA, NOAA, Hadley, Berkeley, Copernicus, and the Japanese JRA-55 reanalysis) used by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Each paints a slightly different picture of what lies ahead. But all signs point to 2024 likely being warmer than its predecessor — but the margins are razor-thin.

And against an 1880–99 pre-industrial baseline, the central estimate of all four forecasts is just below the 1.5°C mark of warming, suggesting that temperatures could top 1.5C next year. There’s a palpable sense of unease about what lies beyond.

The forecasts, drawing upon an array of temperature records, hover tantalizingly close to the 1.5°C threshold. Yet, uncertainties loom large, casting a shadow of doubt over the accuracy of these predictions.

But let’s tread cautiously. The poor performance by all of these groups to forecast 2023’s temperatures serves as a sobering reminder. Until scientists unravel the mysteries behind last year’s unprecedented warmth, predicting the trajectory of 2024 remains a challenge. The waxing and waning of the current El Niño event further complicates matters, adding another layer of unpredictability to the mix.

But beyond the numerical juggling of individual years, one truth remains immutable: the relentless march of human-induced greenhouse gas emissions continues to drive our planet towards a perilous precipice. Until we halt this trajectory and strive for net-zero emissions, Earth will continue to heat. And burn.

If the warming trend observed over the past 40 years continues, it is likely that average surface temperatures will exceed 1.5C by the early 2030s and 2C by around 2060, “exceedance” referring to the long-term average temperature, rather than any specific year.

So, we are truly at a fragile moment. Global climate action lies on a knife edge while entire forests burn, others die after droughts and tsunamis, and hurricanes hit random locations.

The question is, will we continue down the path of recklessness, heedless of the consequences? Or will we summon the courage to confront these challenges head-on, forging a new path towards sustainability and resilience?

One thing is certain: the fight for our future has only just begun, and I can see it happening from my very window.

Be loud.

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