Geopolitics
My Global Threat Index Just Notched Up
Four stories this week are making me increasingly nervous…
As the weekend approaches I’m feeling increasingly gloomy. Putting aside the disgusting behaviour of Russian forces in civilian areas of Ukraine and taking a wider view, I cannot help but feel dismay.
These are the stories that have caught my eye and led to my gloom.
Belarus military mobilisation exercises
Belarus will conduct military mobilisation exercises in June and July in the Gomel region, state news agency BelTA reported on Monday.
⚡️The army of Belarus has begun preparations for the transition from peacetime to wartime — The Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus
A set of exercises will be held with all categories of military personnel, divisions, military units, formations, and military command and control bodies.
Is Putin putting the squeeze on Lukashenko and shaping up for Belarus forces to cross the border and threaten Kyiv?
Or is this just a feint to confuse Ukrainian strategy?
If Belorussian forces do cross the border, then I cannot see Poland sitting still.
Russia’s Duma may vote to cancel recognition of Lithuanian independence
There is a bill before the Russian Duma proposing to cancel recognition of Lithuanian independence:
The corresponding bill was submitted to the State Duma by a deputy from the United Russia party Yevgeny Fedorov, according to Russian media.
Possible causes: Lithuania stands for the toughest EU sanctions against Russia, consistently supports Ukraine in joining the EU, and provides military support in the confrontation with Russia. In particular, heavy mortars were handed over to Ukraine at the end of April.
Lithuania also proposed to create a naval coalition to lift the blockade of the Russian Federation and export Ukrainian grain.
This story has just come in on Telegram from Ukraine, so it could be hot air. But if it’s accurate then it is concerning that Putin is still able to push this kind of legislation through. But Putin is ex-KGB, he has extensive files on all the Duma members.
Canceling recognition of Lithuanian independence would give Putin another opportunity to start re-writing history. Again.
NATO: Exercise Ramstein Legacy
The Ramstein Legacy NATO exercise is being reported as including Sweden and Finland. This exercise has been long planned and heralded in accordance with international norms.
“The exercise includes 17 Allied and Partner nations and will integrate Allied SBAMD units under NATO Command and Control. The NATO IAMD system is a collaborative effort and a key defensive component of the Alliance’s joint air power, which aims to ensure the stability and security of NATO’s airspace by coordinating, controlling and exploiting the air domain.”
“Given the current security situation following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, large-scale training exercises like this are, now, more important to NATO than ever,” said General Jeff Harrigian, Commander Allied Air Command.
Several news sites are reporting that Sweden and Finland are involved in the exercises, although I can find no corroboration of that specific involvement in the stories, nor in the official NATO press release:
We know that Putin has taken a very dim view of Finland and Sweden seeking NATO membership, but he apparently reversed his position in mid-May. I’m wary because he is unpredictable and could certainly change his mind again.
The Hungary question
Is Hungary keen to get back into the Russian orbit now that it has been a member of the EU since 2004 and used EU funds to rebuild its infrastructure?
Is the marriage over with the EU facing a huge divorce bill?
Hungary (or at least its Prime Minister Viktor Orbán) appears to be getting politically well out of step with the EU. Maybe he looks at the dictator Lukashenko in Belarus and wonders if he too can copy the model and hang on to power by turning to Russia. It has become increasingly clear that many of Hungary’s current policies (e.g. on gay rights and immigration) are more in step with Putin’s than the EU’s own policies and values.
Last week he declared a State of Emergency in Hungary. The emergency powers hand the prime minister direct power to “approve measures by decree”, a mechanism he described to MPs as being necessary to tackle the oncoming “economic crisis”.
Also and perhaps more concerning, he has stayed neutral on the Ukraine war, despite Hungary’ membership of NATO.
This week he gained an exemption to the EU embargo of Russian oil.
He is making the EU look stupid, ineffective and impotent. There’s little new in that.
And he’s losing friends in Poland [paywall]:
Conclusion
My personal global threat index is hovering just above 50 now, indicating a worsening international situation.
And I’m starting to wonder about China and Taiwan, with a large air incursion in late May:
China has made the second largest incursion into Taiwan’s air defence zone this year with Taipei reporting 30 jets entering the area, including more than 20 fighters. —The Guardian
At least the Chinese are not known for being impulsive. They are masters of the long game.
But you never know…
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