My Final Predictions for the 73rd Emmy Nominations

With an unprecedented amount of turnover in the major categories due to some high profile shows ending their runs and others having production delays due to COVID, an astounding number of surprises are inevitable when the 73rd Annual Primetime Emmy Award nominations are announced on Tuesday, July 13th at 8:30am. Here are my predictions in the sixteen major categories covering comedy series, drama series, limited series, and made-for-television movies.

10 THINGS TO KNOW BEFORE YOU READ MY PREDICTIONS

1. For those of you who don’t know, the Emmys are television’s top honor. They are what the Oscars are to film, the Tonys are to theater, and the Grammys are to music. (If one individual wins one of each, they are known as an EGOT recipient.)
2. This year will mark the 73rd consecutive year the ceremony has been held. The first ceremony aired on January 25, 1949. (Fun fact: the legendary Betty White, who continues to thrive at age 99, scored her first nomination at the 3rd Annual Emmys in 1951.)
3. The eligibility period for this year’s Emmys is June 1, 2020 and May 31, 2021. Thus, any series that aired all (or the majority of) its most recent season inside that time frame is eligible. Unlike the Oscars, which adjusted its eligibility calendar due to the upheaval caused by COVID, the Emmys stuck with their traditional eligibility calendar.
4. The Emmys are voted on by members of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (ATAS), which currently numbers around 24,000. Voting for the nominees is done by the respective branches (e.g., actors vote for the acting categories, directors vote for the directing categories), with the exception of the series awards which all are allowed to vote on. The voting period for nominations occurred between June 17 and June 28.
5. Changes to the number of nominations per category were made last year and persist. Outstanding Comedy and Drama Series will now have eight nominees each, up from seven the prior year and the traditional five that lasted several decades. The number of nominees in other categories will be determined by the number of submissions (or possible nominees). For example, a category will have five nominees if it has 20–80 submissions, but six nominees if it has 81–160 submissions, seven nominees if it has 161–240 submission, and eight nominees if it has more than 240 submissions. You can find more information about how many nominees there will be per category here.
6. The ceremony is split into two, with the “major” categories (Outstanding Series, lead and supporting acting, writing, and directing) announced during the main ceremony and several dozen “minor” categories (mostly technical achievements) being presented at the Creative Arts Emmy ceremony, which takes place the preceding weekend.
7. The winners will be voted on from August 19 to August 30 by special judging panels made up of a subset of ATAS members.
8. This year, the Emmys will air on CBS and stream live on Paramount+ on Sunday, September 19th at 8pm EST/5pm PST. Virtually no other details about the ceremony have been released yet.
9. Last year, 67% of the nominees I predicted ended up reaping nominations. I am hoping I can increase that this year, but given the huge turnover in the major categories I am expecting a lot of out-of-left field inclusions.
10. Ron Cephas Jones (This Is Us) and his daughter Jasmine Cephas Jones (Hamilton) will announce the nominees at 8:30 AM PDT on Tuesday, July 13th. The announcement can be watched live on the Emmy website.

COMEDY SERIES PREDICTIONS

Outstanding Comedy Series: Of last year’s eight nominees in this category, only one — Netflix’s The Kominsky Method — is eligible this year, having released its final batch of six episodes just days before the cutoff. Given the lack of competition this year it has a good shot at repeating, but it will have to face off against two hot upstarts that look likely to dominate this year’s comedy categories — AppleTV’s inspiring Jason Sudeikis-led soccer comedy Ted Lasso and HBOMax’s dark Jean Smart-led showbiz comedy Hacks. HBOMax has another strong contender in The Flight Attendant, the quirky Kaley Cuoco-led murder mystery that really doesn’t belong in the comedy category but is being campaigned here anyway. The occupants of the remaining four slots are far less certain. The major contenders include previous nominees like Netflix’s edgy Master of None and ABC’s family comedy Black-ish; never-before nominees like Hulu’s coming-of-age cringe comedy Pen15, CBS’s recently wrapped and long overdue sobriety-themed sitcom Mom, NBC’s canceled musical comedy Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist, Netflix’s martial arts comedy Cobra Kai, and AppleTV’s period comedy Dickinson; and first-time contenders like Peacock’s musical comedy Girls5eva, Hulu’s LGBT-themed dramedy Love, Victor, Netflix’s romantic comedy Emily in Paris, and AppleTV’s video game comedy Mythic Quest.

• Predicted Nominees (8): Black-ish (ABC); The Flight Attendant (HBOMax); Girls5Eva (Peacock); Hacks (HBOMax); The Kominsky Method (Netflix); Master of None (Netflix); Pen15 (Hulu); Ted Lasso (AppleTV)

Outstanding Lead Actress: Of last year’s six nominees, only Tracee Ellis Ross as the matriarch on Black-ish is eligible again. She seems locked to get another nomination, but will likely lose to Jean Smart, whose turn on Hacks seems destined for Emmy gold. Another surefire nominee is Kaley Cuoco, who should get her first nomination for The Flight Attendant after failing to reap a nod for any of her twelve seasons on The Big Bang Theory. Contenders for the final two spots include Allison Janney for her headlining role on Mom that has already netted her two Emmys, Jane Levy for Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist, Dickinson star and Oscar nominee Hailee Steinfeld, Master of None’s Lena Waithe, Pen15 stars Maya Erskine and Anna Konkle, Made for Love’s Cristin Milioti, The Conners’ Sara Gilbert, and Tony-winning Hamilton star and Girls5Eva headliner Renee Elise Goldsberry.

• Predicted Nominees (5 slots): Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant (HBOMax); Renee Elise Goldsberry, Girls5Eva (Peacock); Allison Janney, Mom (CBS); Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish (ABC); Jean Smart, Hacks (HBOMax)

Outstanding Lead Actor: Of last year’s six nominees, two are eligible again this year — Anthony Anderson for ABC’s Black-ish and Michael Douglas for Netflix’s The Kominsky Method. Given the reduction in competition and the fact that their widely revered performances have yet to win Emmy gold, it seems very likely that they will be back. However, they will likely go home empty-handed (again) thanks to Jason Sudeikis, who has won hearts and trophies left and right for his titular turn on AppleTV’s Ted Lasso. There are numerous high-profile contenders for the other two spots, including Emmy favorites Ted Danson (who is gunning for his 15th (!) nomination in this category for NBC’s Mr. Mayor) and William H. Macy (who could score his 6th nomination for the recently wrapped Shameless). Other contenders include Saturday Night Live star Kenan Thompson for his self-titled NBC sitcom, Cobra Kai stars Ralph Macchio and William Zabka, Mythic Quest’s Rob McElhenney, Resident Alien’s Alan Tudyk, and Rutherford Falls’s Ed Helms.

• Predicted Nominees (5 slots): Anthony Anderson, Black-ish (ABC); Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method (Netflix); William H. Macy, Shameless (Showtime); Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso (AppleTV); Kenan Thompson, Kenan (NBC)

Outstanding Supporting Actress: Of last year’s eight nominees in this category, only Saturday Night Live stars Kate McKinnon and Cecily Strong are eligible again this year — and both are all-but guaranteed to repeat. Numerous high-profile actresses are contending for the remaining five slots including Ted Lasso’s Hannah Waddingham and Juno Temple, The Flight Attendant’s Rosie Perez and Zosia Mamet, Girls5Eva’s Paula Pell and Busy Phillips, Mom’s Jamie Pressly and Kristen Johnston, Hacks’s Hannah Einbinder, Saturday Night Live’s Aidy Bryant, The Conners’ Laurie Metcalf, and Kathleen Turner, who made a big impact reuniting with big screen costar Michael Douglas on the final season of The Kominsky Method. And even though their shows will likely be deemed too teen-focused to be taken seriously by the Academy, strong cases for Ana Ortiz and Rachel Hilson on Hulu’s Love, Victor and Josie Totah and Elizabeth Berkley on Peacock’s Saved by the Bell sequel.

• Predicted Nominees (7 slots): Hannah Einbinder, Hacks (HBOMax); Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Paula Pell, Girls5Eva (Peacock); Rosie Perez, The Flight Attendant (HBOMax); Cecily Strong, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Kathleen Turner, The Kominsky Method (Netflix); Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso (AppleTV)

Outstanding Supporting Actor: Of last year’s eight nominees in this category, only Saturday Night Live’s Kenan Thompson is eligible to repeat. And in contrast to the jam packed supporting actress comedy, it is going to be hard to find six deserving people to fill the remaining spots. Among the contenders are Thompson’s Saturday Night Live costars Bowen Yang, Pete Davidson, and Michael Che; Ted Lasso’s Brett Goldstein, Brendan Hunt, and Nick Mohammad; The Flight Attendant’s TR Knight and Michael Huisman; Made for Love’s Ray Romano; The Kominsky Method’s Paul Reiser; Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist’s Alex Newell; Black-ish’s Laurence Fishburne; Mythic Quest’s Danny Pudi; Hacks’s Carl Clemons-Hopkins; Mom’s William Fichtner; and Superstore’s Nico Santos. Regardless of who makes it, this will undoubtedly be one of the year’s weakest categories.

• Predicted Nominees (7 slots): Laurence Fishburne, Black-ish (ABC); Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso (AppleTV); Brendan Hunt, Ted Lasso (AppleTV); Paul Reiser, The Kominsky Method (Netflix); Ray Romano, Made for Love (HBO Max); Kenan Thompson, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Bowen Yang, Saturday Night Live (NBC)

DRAMA SERIES PREDICTIONS

Outstanding Drama Series: In contrast to the corresponding comedy category where only 1 of last year’s 8 nominees is eligible, 3 of last year’s nominees in this category are eligible again — Netflix’s royal family drama The Crown, Disney+’s Star Wars spin-off The Mandalorian, and Hulu’s dystopian drama The Handmaid’s Tale. These three seem very likely to repeat here and are likely to be joined by the return of two previous nominees — NBC’s This is Us and Fx’s Pose. Numerous new shows will be vying for slots as well, including: Netflix’s breakout period romance Bridgerton, HBO’s acclaimed horror series Lovecraft Country, HBO’s reboots of Perry Mason and In Treatment, superhero dramas The Boys (Amazon Prime) and The Falcon and the Winter Soldier (Disney+), and AppleTV’s adaptation of The Mosquito Coast.

• Predicted Nominees (8 slots): Bridgerton (Netflix); The Crown (Netflix); The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Lovecraft Country (HBO); The Mandalorian (Disney+); Perry Mason (HBO); Pose (Fx); This is Us (NBC)

Outstanding Lead Actress: Last year’s lineup in this category was an all-timer with a brilliant stable of six nominees and at least six more who deserved to be there but didn’t make the cut. Only one — The Crown’s Olivia Colman — is eligible to return. She most certainly will be there, as will her costar Emma Corrin (who shined as Princess Diana in the series’ fourth season). Also likely to nab a spot is The Handmaid’s Tale’s Elisabeth Moss, who previously won for her role but didn’t make the final lineup last year. In a just world they would be joined by Mj Rodriguez, whose brilliant and understated performance on Pose has been the heart and soul of the series. Other strong contenders include Emmy favorite Sarah Paulson for her turn as an evil nurse on Netflix’s Ratched, Jurnee Smollett for Lovecraft Country, Phoebe Dynevor for Bridgerton, Uzo Aduba for In Treatment, and Aya Cash for The Boys.

• Predicted Nominees (6 slots): Uzo Aduba, In Treatment (HBO); Olivia Colman, The Crown (Netflix); Emma Corrin, The Crown (Netflix); Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Mj Rodriguez, Pose (Fx); Sarah Paulson, Ratched (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Actor: Of last year’s six nominees, only Billy Porter’s turn on Pose is eligible to repeat. And his explosive, unforgettable performance in the final season may just garner him a second win. Porter will almost certainly be joined by Josh O’Connor, who wowed as Prince Charles in the fourth season of The Crown, and Rege-Jean Page, who broke it in a big way as the male romantic lead in Bridgerton. Strong contenders for the last three spots include This is Us’s Sterling K. Brown (who, like Elisabeth Moss, is a previous winner for this role who didn’t make the nomination cut last year); Perry Mason himself Matthew Rhys (who previously won this category for The Americans); The Handmaid’s Tale’s Joseph Fiennes (who had a very memorable season); Lovecraft Country’s Jonathan Majors; The Mandalorian himself Pedro Pascal; and The Mosquito Coast’s Justin Theroux.

• Predicted Nominees (6 slots): Sterling K. Brown, This is Us (NBC); Josh O’Connor, The Crown (Netflix); Joseph Fiennes, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Rege-Jean Page, Bridgerton (Netflix); Billy Porter, Pose (Fx); Matthew Rhys, Perry Mason (HBO)

Outstanding Supporting Actress: Of last year’s 8 nominees, only The Crown’s Helena Bonham Carter and The Handmaid’s Tale’s Samira Wiley are eligible to return. And both likely will given how strong their work was. In fact, all 8 slots could deservedly be taken up just by cast members from The Crown and The Handmaid’s Tale. For the former, Gillian Anderson seems assured a nomination for her turn as Margaret Thatcher and Emerald Fennell could certainly ride the wave of buzz for the show’s fourth season and her recent Oscar win for Promising Young Woman and score a nomination for her role as Camilla Parker-Bowles. For the latter, previous winners Ann Dowd and Alexis Bledel could repeat, as could should-have-been-a-winner Yvonne Strahovski and Madeline Brewer. But it seems highly unlikely that those two shows will take all the spots. Strong contenders from other series include Lovecraft Country’s Wunmi Mosaku and Aunjanue Ellis, Bridgerton’s Nicola Coughlan, Pose’s richly deserving Dominique Jackson and Indya Moore, and Perry Mason’s Tatiana Maslany (a prior Emmy winner for her lead turn on Orphan Black).

• Predicted Nominees (8 slots): Gillian Anderson, The Crown (Netflix); Helena Bonham Carter, The Crown (Netflix); Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Emerald Fennell, The Crown (Netflix); Tatiana Maslany, Perry Mason (HBO); Wunmi Mosaku, Lovecraft Country (HBO); Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Samira Wiley, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)

Outstanding Supporting Actor: Of last year’s eight nominees in this category, only Bradley Whiftford’s chilling work on The Handmaid’s Tale has the possibility of repeating. He will almost certainly return and may be joined by his co-star OT Fagbenle. However, similar to the corresponding comedy category, this one has a fairly weak field of contenders. Duking it out for the remaining slots are Tobias Menzies for his work as Prince Phillip on The Crown, Michael K. Williams for Lovecraft Country, Emmy darling John Lithgow for Perry Mason, Anthony Ramos and John Benjamin Hinkley for In Treatment, Jonathan Bailey for Bridgerton, Giancarlo Esposito for The Mandalorian, Justin Harley and Chris Sullivan for This is Us, and Carl Lumbly, Daniel Bruhl, and Wyatt Russell for The Falcon and the Winter Soldier.

• Predicted Nominees (8 slots): Giancarlo Esposito, The Mandalorian (Disney+); OT Fagbenle, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); John Benjamin Hinkley, In Treatment (HBO); John Lithgow, Perry Mason (HBO); Tobias Menzies, The Crown (Netflix); Anthony Ramos, In Treatment (HBO); Bradley Whitford, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Michael K. Williams, Lovecraft Country (HBO)

LIMITED SERIES AND MADE-FOR-TELEVISION MOVIE PREDICTIONS

Outstanding Limited Series: It is hard to recall a category in recent Emmy history that is more of a blood bath than this year’s race for Outstanding Limited Series. There are at least eight series that in a weaker year would be guaranteed nominees and possibly frontrunners to win. The fact that three of them won’t make the cut is mind-blowing. The eight contenders are: Netflix’s period chess drama The Queen’s Gambit, HBO’s Kate Winslet-led murder mystery Mare of Easttown, HBO’s Nicole Kidman-led murder mystery The Undoing, Amazon Prime’s acclaimed adaptation of The Underground Railroad, HBO’s searing AIDS drama It’s a Sin, Disney+’s Marvel spectacular WandaVision, HBO’s sexual assault drama I May Destroy You, and Amazon Prime’s anthology series Small Axe. Other contenders include Showtime’s The Good Lord Bird and the latest iterations of Fx’s Fargo and National Geographic’s Genius, both of which have been nominated in this category multiple times before. It’s honestly anyone’s guess as to which five will make the final cut and it is bound to be the most hotly debated category of the morning.

• Predicted Nominees (5 slots): I May Destroy You (HBO); Mare of Easttown (HBO); The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix); The Underground Railroad (Amazon Prime); WandaVision (Disney+)

Outstanding Made for Television Movie: In stark contrast to the Limited Series category, it will be hard to find five worthy nominees to fill this category. The leading contenders are HBO’s adaptation of the Tony-winning play Oslo, Amazon Prime’s period dramas Sylvie’s Love and Uncle Frank, Netflix’s festive Dolly Parton-penned Christmas on the Square, Lifetime’s biopic Mahalia Jackson biopic Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia, and HBOMax’s road trip dramedy Unpregnant.

• Predicted Nominees (5 slots): Oslo (HBO); Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia (Lifetime); Sylvie’s Love (Amazon Prime); Uncle Frank (Amazon Prime); Unpregnant (HBOMax)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: Given the fact that nearly all eight of the major contenders for Outstanding Limited Series are driven by strong female leads, it’s no surprise that this category is also a bloodbath. The main showdown will be between The Queen Gambit’s Anya Taylor-Joy and Mare of Easttown’s Kate Winslet. However, they will get heavy competition from a stacked field that includes: I May Destroy You’s Michaela Cole, The Underground Railroad’s Thuso Mdebu, WandaVision’s Elizabeth Olsen, The Undoing’s Nicole Kidman, Genius: Aretha’s Cynthia Erivo, Robin Roberts Presents: Mahalia’s Danielle Brooks, and Sylvie’s Love’s Tessa Thompson. The only real guarantee in this category is that several deserving actresses will go un-nominated.

• Predicted Nominees (5 slots): Michaela Cole, I May Destroy You (HBO); Cynthia Erivo, Genius: Aretha (National Geographic); Thuso Mdebu, The Underground Railroad (Amazon Prime); Anya Taylor-Joy, The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix); Kate Winslet, Mare of Easttown (HBO)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: A much weaker field compared to its female counterpart, there are a lot of strong contenders but few frontrunners. Strong contenders include Hugh Grant’s against-type turn in The Undoing and Ethan Hawke’s turn as abolitionist John Brown in The Good Lord Bird. They will face off against Paul Bettany as an android in WandaVision, Jeff Daniels as FBI director James Comey in The Comey Rule, Ewan McGregor as famed fashion designer Halston in Halston, Joel Edgerton as a slave catcher in The Underground Railroad, Olly Alexander as a young man with AIDS in It’s a Sin, Bryan Cranston as a judge in Your Honor, and Hamilton stars Lin-Manuel Miranda and Leslie Odom, Jr. (The cast of Hamilton is bizarrely allowed to compete here despite the fact that the recording of the Broadway show that aired on Disney+ is not deemed a limited series or a made-for-television movie.)

• Predicted Nominees (5 slots): Paul Bettany, WandaVision (Disney+); Bryan Cranston, Your Honor (Showtime); Joel Edgerton, The Underground Railroad (Amazon Prime); Hugh Grant, The Undoing (HBO); Ethan Hawke, The Good Lord Bird (Showtime)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: A quartet of highly buzzed-about performances seem very likely to make it in here — Julianne Nicholson and Jean Smart’s heartbreaking turns in Mare of Easttown, Kathryn Hahn’s wickedly charismatic work in WandaVision, and Marielle Heller’s quirky performance in The Queen’s Gambit. The remaining slots will likely go to two of the following: Small Axe’s Letitia Wright, WandaVision’s Teyonah Parris, Fargo’s Jessie Buckley, I May Destroy You’s Weruchie Opia, The Undoing’s Nomi Dumezweni, and Hamilton’s Renee Elise Goldsberry.

• Predicted Nominees (6 slots): Jessie Buckley, Fargo (Fx); Kathryn Hahn, WandaVision (Disney+); Marielle Heller, The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix); Julianne Nicholson, Mare of Easttown (HBO); Jean Smart, Mare of Easttown (HBO); Letitia Wright, Small Axe (Amazon Prime)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Made-for-Television Movie: Similarly to this category’s female counterpart, I expect there to be a leading quartet of contenders — Bill Camp’s turn as a brusque but kind janitor in The Queen’s Gambit, Donald Sutherland’s chilling turn as a protective grandfather in The Undoing, John Boyega as a British police reformer in Small Axe, and Evan Peters as a young detective in Mare of Easttown. The remaining slots will likely go to two of the following: Brendan Gleeson as Donald Trump in The Comey Rule, Daveed Diggs for his dual roles in Hamilton, Fargo’s Ben Whishaw, The Underground Railroad’s William Jackson Harper, The Queen’s Gambit’s Thomas Brodie-Sangster, and Genius: Aretha’s Courtney B. Vance.

• Predicted Nominees (6 slots): John Boyega, Small Axe (Amazon Prime); Bill Camp, The Queen’s Gambit (Netflix); Brendan Gleeson, The Comey Rule (Showtime); Evan Peters, Mare of Easttown (HBO); Donald Sutherland, The Undoing (HBO); Courtney B. Vance, Genius: Aretha (National Geographic)

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Click here for my recap and review of last year’s Emmys