Mules, Ships, and Bombers: Not a Good Week for Russia

While everybody was opening their presents, I was going over to Telegram. And I came across this post from Yigal Levin. It might seem minor, but it points to a further failure of Russian logistics near the front.

The screenshot is from that video. It’s before they both died. So, fair warning: the video itself is disturbing. I know it’s war, but watching two people die is the end of it. Here is the post:

Ukrainian blogger and volunteer Sergei Sternenko published a video of the SBU Central Security Service “A” operators hunting for two Russian occupiers dragging several bags somewhere. Apparently, we are talking about the so-called “donkeys” — the lowest caste in the front-line hierarchy of the Russian Armed Forces, who are used to transport cargo on their own two feet (since there is not enough front-line logistics equipment and it is easy to knock it out). Clear work. The second soldier either did not see the drone, or simply resigned himself and accepted his death, without even trying to shoot down the drone with a stick . An inglorious end in the mud, where no one will remember you, and at the end of the war they will only curse and hate you. And not you personally — who died like a hunted animal on a dirty road, but the collective you, stuck on someone else’s land, like a guy carrying some bags and losing his head from a Ukrainian drone.

What is so significant about this? Russia has always relied on trains and first horse-drawn carts; these days, Kamaz trucks bring equipment to the front. Now, they are using soldiers. This points, at least on this section of the front, to a complete breakdown of this system.

We knew they were having problems with trucks. At least in this section, it’s unclear where Russia has run out. That’s why it’s so significant. They are now using troops, walking in one and two to bring supplies to the line in daylight.

It also reveals how the Russian army works. There seem to be little changes from the time of the Tsars. And we know they do abuse troops, including rape. So this is not a surprise.

Then we go to the bombers. And this is as well important:

The Ukrainian Air Force reported that a Su-30SM was also shot down yesterday. Total, minus two planes. That is, over the past few days, minus five aircraft: four Su-34 and one Su-30SM. It’s not bad at all and doesn’t look like an “accident.” It looks more like the Ukrainians finally found the key.

Ukraine moved patriots closer to the line. They are now using them to shoot down Russian aircraft. This denies the little control of the airspace that Russia still had.

They can’t afford these losses. Pilots don’t grow on trees. With the sanctions, they can’t get new airframes. This is a critical loss even before the Falcons fly. Speaking of the F-16s, delivery is soon, and the capabilities of firing over the horizon will make the Air Force even less able to operate.

Rumors are flying that Russians are taking their planes out of Crimea. So now we know the Navy left. Now, rumors are that their Air Force is leaving. So what’s next? The army? Speaking of that, here are estimated losses via British Intelligence:

A few days ago, the BBC published a new study on Russian casualties. By the end of December, they managed to establish the names of more than 40 thousand liquidated Russian military personnel during the entire period of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. These are the ones about whom obituaries and documentation are written. That is, this is the lowest bar, and the real figure is probably much higher. The BBC say more than 80 thousand. That is, for every one documented there is one nameless. Also, after studying the obituaries, they identified 23 thousand eliminated militants from ORDLO. In total, irreversible losses (that is, including the seriously wounded and maimed) of Russia over almost two years of a full-scale war with Ukraine, according to BBC estimates, could amount to 309 thousand people. Once again, this is only based on information from public data, that is, these are the smallest and most conservative estimates.

That is, summing up both the RF Armed Forces and ORDLO, liquidated 80–100 thousand, irrevocable more than 300 thousand, and total (with moderately and lightly wounded, deserters, missing persons, etc.) apparently about half a million. Once again, this is a conservative estimate.

The same material provides an interesting graph showing the distribution of liquidated Russian occupiers by category. We see how the proportion of “volunteers” and mobilized prisoners is growing, relative to the masses, who are difficult to account for and not all of them are documented. The Ukrainian soldier crushed the Russian professional army, and then crushed the mass (what is mass and why is it needed, you can listen here ) created from ORDLO militants and prisoners. Now it’s the turn of “ordinary” citizens of the Russian Federation, that is, “volunteers” and mobilized ones. The Kremlin has been trying with all its might over these two years to “protect” the ordinary citizen of the Russian Federation from the meat grinder that it created. But the militants from the ORDLO are gone, the prisoners will not last forever either, and it’s time for the Russian “volunteers” and the mobilized to be minced en masse. Will something click in their empty heads? There is little hope, but the Kremlin is not just afraid to send them to slaughter; it knows well how this could end.

It seems the Russian government is separating totals from Lugansk and Donetsk from Russian losses. Does this mean they see this as a lost cause? Incidentally, Ukraine is talking of over 350,000 Russian losses. They don’t make this distinction.

It also points to further mobilization. It never stopped, but I expect it to accelerate. Why? Vladimir Putin is desperate for any success, even if it comes at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives.

Which brings me to the loss of yet another Russian navy ship. This was another Ropucha class at the port of Fedosia in Crimea. Here is an early commentary from one of the Z-channels:

As a result of the attack on Feodosia, the large landing ship “Novocherkassk” was damaged — Russian Ministry of Defense

The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ strikes were carried out using aircraft guided missiles, the military department reported. Russian air defense destroyed two enemy Su-24s — they were the ones launching the missiles.

The screenshot below is closer to the truth.

So what does this mean? Here is a list of ships lost to a country with no navy. This is why they have mostly left those waters. Also, the explosion points to the fact that the boat was indeed loaded to the brim.

So, at this point, we are seeing further weakening of the Russian army. Now, it is worth noting that Ukraine will mobilize more people. But they are still holding back the Russian force. I will note this screenshot showing a plate of that vessel away from the port. It was a huge boom:

I will add this from the wives as well. This is via the We Can Explain MO channel. They have been declared a foreign agent, by the way:

“Children need fathers, not lollipops!” The wives of those mobilized are outraged that the authorities are “compensating” for the refusal to return their husbands with candy and tickets to the “Christmas tree”.

The chats of the wives of the mobilized were filled with indignant remarks about “handouts” from the authorities against the backdrop of the refusal to demobilize those called up in the fall of 2022, MO correspondents noted. The authorities give children sweets and invitations to “Christmas trees”, which do not please those left without husbands on New Year’s Eve.

“Children need fathers, not lollipops,” “ Rejoice at the pitiful handouts! Let them shove their candy far away . Is this what families deserve!!!!?” the wives are indignant in mobilized special chats.

🎄 Not all military families receive gifts. Two wives of those mobilized from Moscow told MO that their children were not given anything at all. The children of one of them were just invited to the New Year’s party. “ We need our families, not handouts from officials , payments and the like,” says Alexandra, an activist in the “Way Home” movement. Some of her comrades refused to go to the “Christmas tree”, but went to another protest rally at the Kremlin wall, where they again demanded that the authorities demobilize their men.

🍫 Sets with sweets are also given to orphans — the children of the dead Wagnerites, judging by the chat of their relatives. “The only cheap thing is lollipop,” a chat participant describes its contents in a conversation with MO. — And the rest are expensive candies (“squirrel”, “karakum”, etc.). And a large chocolate bar “Alenka”.

🍬In the regions, authorities do not spend too much on gifts. In the Tula region, children of SVO participants will receive 5 thousand rubles along with sweets. In the Krasnodar Territory, compensation is more generous — 20 thousand. “ They said there would be food packages. I haven’t received it yet ,” a relative of the deceased from Bashkiria complains in the Wagner chat.

This is another signal of anger in Russian society. The ice continues to creak. The mobilization never stopped. They might accelerate it. But for the moment, it’s not touching the empire’s core, or as much as it will. Eggs and eggs are now a thing. So we shall see how that continues to develop.