More People Are Testing Positive For COVID-19 Because We Are Doing More Testing

An Unfortunate Failure In Logic

As more and more Americans test positive for the COVID-19 virus, an argument keeps surfacing about why the testing numbers are so high.

There are more positive cases because we are doing more testing.

This explanation seems obvious to some people and maddening to others. This conundrum provides a good opportunity to address a common error in thinking Neil deGrasse Tyson describes as, “knowing enough about a subject to think you’re right, but not knowing enough about the subject to know you’re wrong”.

Most people don’t make logical errors on purpose and believe their arguments makes sense. The specific claim that COVID-19 cases are going up because the country is doing more testing sounds satisfying. It’s a straightforward answer that provides comforting reassurance that a dangerous threat could be more hype than fact.

Broken Logic

Testing is the only way to confirm someone has contracted the COVID-19 virus, and if we were doing fewer tests before and more testing now, then it makes sense that the amount of people who test positive for the virus would also increase.

This argument, however, fails to provide any useful information about whether or not the virus is spreading. While it successfully identifies a correlation between testing and positive cases, it only addresses the increase of positive cases if the argument is made that the testing is causing the spread of the virus, something people are not claiming.

“The virus is not spreading, we are just testing more, and if you test more, then you’re going to find more cases”.

Key Assumptions

This argument is problematic because it is based on several underlying assumptions, things that would have to be true, in order for this argument to be valid. Let’s take a look at some of the key assumptions of this argument.

If you argue the virus is not spreading and that more positive cases are only being identified because we are conducting more tests, then you are making the assumption that no possible scenario exists in which testing would increase but positive cases would decrease. And since we see this happening in other countries, and even in some other states, then we know this assumption is false.

If the virus was not spreading, we would expect to see less positive cases, even with more testing. This is why the positivity rate is a relevant metric.

The argument that we are only seeing more cases because we are testing more also assumes all of the people testing positive were already carrying the virus and thus more cases are not indicative of a recent surge in infections. This is an odd assumption because the very fact that someone tests positive for the virus is prima facie evidence that the virus has spread to them. And if 10,000 more people are found to test positive today, then it seems pointless to argue this is not the result of spreading.

This argument, then, is not really an explanation for the growing number of cases as much as it is a rationalization that the increase should not be a concern.

The only way to argue the high number of cases is not a reason for concern is to rationalize the following:

“The numbers are higher because more tests are being conducted, and the higher number of people confirmed to have the virus is proof that the virus is not really a threat because there is no increase in hospitalizations or deaths.”

The problem with this argument is that it fails to take into account the timeline of the virus. The timeline of the virus is driven by the virus’ life cycle, the reaction of those who get sick, and by the logistics of testing, receiving results, contacting a doctor, checking into a hospital, going through treatment, dying, and having that death recorded and reported. Each one of these steps requires time.

People with the virus might only go through some of these stages. For example, you might feel sick, wait a few days to get tested, wait a few more days to get back your results, contact a doctor, go through a treatment regimen at home and recover without going to a hospital. Some people will be asymptomatic and not go through any of these steps. However, a person who is hospitalized or killed by the virus, will go through most or all of this timeline, which makes timing an important metric.

The timeline of the virus is important because it tells us that what we see happening right now is a result of what we were doing four to six weeks ago. When society started to reopen, people started to let their guard down, feeling like the threat was gone, not realizing the safety they were experiencing was due to the previous weeks of lockdown. Once more businesses started to open and people started congregating and refusing to wear masks, a delayed result was set in motion.

Accordingly, an argument that the increased COVID-19 cases are not a concern can only be supported by the assumption that the hospitalization and death rates will remain low. Unfortunately, we have already seen spikes in several states, and several hospitals in large cities are already reaching capacity. This brings the grim news that in two to three more weeks, the death rate will also start to skyrocket, unless there are dramatic medical advances in the treatment of serious cases.

It’s worth mentioning that increased testing is finding people who are sick right now.

Because the virus has a life cycle, then we can be certain that if testing had increased a month earlier, people who are testing positive now would not have tested positive then. Accordingly, the people testing positive now will not test positive after the virus has run its cycle inside their bodies. This fact tells us that the current number of cases, a number that is growing weekly, if not daily, is indicative of a recent spread of the virus.

The Bottom Line

Because testing identifies people who currently have the active virus, and because of the predictable timeline between being infected and recovering or dying, then the only possible answer to the increase in the positive number of tests is that the virus has spread rapidly. We can also deduce that hospitalization and death rates will continue to increase until we change our social behavior. High death rates will only be mitigated if there are significant advances in medical treatment that increase the survivability rate of serious cases or if the virus mutates into a weaker strain.

The argument that we are seeing more positive cases because we are testing more might seem to address the increase of COVID-19 cases, but it falls short in gauging the virus’ spread. What people who make this argument are really saying is that the virus is not a viable threat. And this argument, unfortunately, will be settled in the coming weeks, most likely in a horrifying manner.