HISTORY | NUCLEAR WEAPONS | ECONOMICS | PAST | FUTURE | ESSAY
Meditations on the Past and the Future
The traditional “creative destruction” tactic of austerity ➡️bankruptcy➡️war➡️civil war➡️redistribution of resources ➡️rinse and repeat does not work anymore. Nukes are partially responsible for that.
Examining the historical period after 1945 we observe that during serious crises (Vietnam, Bay of Pigs, the dissolution of USSR etc) we did not escalate to World War 3 largely because of nukes. Due to the mutually assured, potentially global, annihilation.
I don’t particularly like Edward Teller -the man on the far left of the front row of the header image- since he’s the primary designer of the hydrogen bomb, along with Stanislaw Ulam. They took a massively lethal weapon, the plain atomic bomb, and amplified its power tens of times further by adding nuclear fusion into the mix.
However Teller’s doctrine of “Balance of Terror” due to mutually assured destruction was effective. There is no question in my mind that had nuclear weapons not been developed we would have had at least a couple more world wars since 1945. Multiple potential world war triggers have occurred.
And banks would have been thrilled to fund another global war. Since antiquity bankers have made much more money during wars than during peace. Wars mean higher spending, and thus extensive borrowing with high interest.
But nukes put a damper on their excitement. We cannot have a conventional world war when nine countries (incl. Israel and North Korea) possess nuclear weapons.
Wars throughout history were the pivotal events that moved the world forward, via the generation of new ideas, new science and technology. The reason is that war is the only commercial activity when no-one is asking about profit margins, revenue or ROI. There are almost no limits on war funding.
When the United States joined WW2 they did not have the money to construct the fleet of aircraft and ships required to defend against Japan. However they had resources, i.e. the primary materials, fuel and energy required for their construction. They also had workers -mostly women- eager to work “for the survival of their country” for a pittance, barely enough to cover their sustenance.
Wars provided the opportunity for new technology to be developed without artificial monetary obstacles, particularly during the last two centuries. ‘Military grade’ essentially means new tech prototypes that were developed with a ‘no matter the cost’ philosophy. Prototypes that lead to commercial grade products of poorer quality at lower cost.
The majority of the current tech has military R&D origins. Even the Internet was originally developed by the US Pentagon. It was called ARPANET. However this trick no longer works. This year our planet reached 8 billion people. World War 3 as a ‘financial reboot’ is not possible because it cannot remain conventional.
Therefore a new way is required to motivate the generation of new technology without wars. A non military way, in order to revitalize -sustainably- growth and progress. And while nukes have so far prevented the escalation of hostilities into a third world war they might mean total annihilation if madmen are in charge of them.
Madmen like Putin (please don’t send assassins bearing neurotoxins to poison my ass Мистер президент, I’m a nobody). A man who effectively blackmails the world using his nukes. What he says is “My way or the nuclear way!” He says he’s not bluffing but that’s what everyone who threatens to use nukes would say.
How does game theory apply to madmen, assuming Putin is one? If both drivers in the notorious ‘game of chicken’ are mad they will both die, since no-one will turn their car and they’ll collide. None would be ‘chicken’ but both would be dead. The driver who blinks first is the ‘chicken’, and is considered the loser, but if none blinks they both die.
If you apply this game to nuclear weapon powers if no leader blinks we all die. They each have an army of diplomats who can moderate or mask the blinking, but the stakes are much higher than two stupid drivers who risk their own lives.
For now Biden and the West appear to do most of the blinking; but there will come a time when they will be sick of being the ‘chickens’ and refuse to blink.
If Putin thinks they’re bluffing and keeps on “driving”, they’re not bluffing and also keep on “driving” then we are all royally screwed. I do not believe in a personal god but I think the phrase ‘God help us all’ would be fitting should that happen.
Let’s wrap this essay up on that cheerful, hopeful note :) Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the future of our species and of the planet in general? Do you think a third world war will occur until the middle of the century?
If so, do you think it will escalate to a full-blown nuclear armageddon, killing 90+% of the population, or could it be somehow contained? Do you think we will manage to survive this very critical century and pass through the Great Filter (which I might cover in another essay)?
Don’t be shy, post what you think in the comments. Love, hope and peace to you all ☮️💖
A preliminary, shorter, cruder, coarser version of this essay was published in Greek in this personal blog of mine, back in 2011. It also had a totally different ending, reflecting the era and my ideas at the time.
This is my first such essay here. I have no similar to suggest but I recommend this humorous piece to cheer you up:
