Summary

The website content discusses recent economic indicators, including China's unemployment rate and inflation numbers, the impact of these figures on global markets, and the performance of various stock indices and commodities.

Abstract

The article provides an overview of the current economic situation, focusing on China's recovery in February's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) due to Lunar New Year spending, despite a persistent youth unemployment rate of 14.9%. It contrasts this with the US stock market's cautious performance ahead of its own CPI release, with tech stocks experiencing profit-taking and the US dollar index showing slight gains. The piece also touches on the mixed crude oil prices, the divergent reports on global wheat demand, and the fluctuations in agricultural commodity markets, with specific attention to the impact of weather conditions on crop yields and the influence of geopolitical tensions on oil prices.

Opinions

The author suggests that China's inflation numbers in February may not be indicative of the entire year, hinting at skepticism regarding the sustainability of the recovery.
There is an expectation that the US annual CPI numbers will be around 3.1%, with the potential for a negative market reaction if the actual figure exceeds this estimate.
The article implies that China is in denial about its economic recession, explicitly stating that China must acknowledge this reality.
The cautious behavior of market players is highlighted, with an emphasis on the significance of inflation numbers in determining market direction.
The author notes that profit-taking sell-offs were prevalent, particularly affecting chip-related stocks like NVIDIA and AMD.
There is a sense of anticipation regarding the Bank of Japan's upcoming rate policy decision, with a question raised about the possibility of exiting their long-standing negative rate system.
The article expresses that the differences in crude oil demand forecasts by OPEC and the IEA contribute to the long-term chaos in the oil markets.
In the agricultural markets, the author points out that funds are covering their short positions cautiously and speculates about Russia's aggressive export prices.
The author conveys that China's cancellation of US wheat contracts suggests a reduced need for expensive imports, potentially due to improved domestic supply or alternative sourcing.
The strengthening of the US dollar against the UK pound and euro is noted, which could have implications for trade and international investments.
The article suggests that the Chicago corn market is experiencing support from fund short covering, with potential production cuts by CONAB and weather conditions influencing market sentiment.
There is an observation that soybean oil prices are being influenced by the

MAR 11. Unemployment in China…

More updated inflation numbers will be reported this week, and the global markets will try to set up new market directions.

China’s CPI & PPI numbers in February recovered well because of Lunar’s New Year huge spendings. But is it going to be like February all year long?

China’s annual CPI number was 0.7% and monthly CPI was 1.0%, better than estimations. Still, 14.9% of the populations aged between 16~24 years don’t have any jobs. This number came out in December and wouldn’t get any better after for sure. China’s annual PPI was -2.7%, disappointing numbers.

USA’s annual CPI numbers will be out tomorrow, expecting around 3.1% this time.

China is in recession now. They must admit it.

US stock market was generally downed today.

DJ index was up 0.1%, S&P 500 index was downed by 0.1% and NASDAQ index was downed by 0.4%.

Players were very cautious today. Market needs to check inflation numbers tomorrow.

Profit taking selling were widely appeared, especially on those CHIP relate stocks. NVIDIA was downed by 1.3% and AMD was downed by 4.1% today.

Apple was up 1.2%, Tesla was up 1.4% but MS was downed by 0.4%, Amazon was downed by 1.9%.

If USA’s CPI number is over 3.1%, higher than estimation, stock markets will be pulled down more.

US dollar index was up 0.2%, ended at 102.85 points today.

It’s been mainly technically reversed today but direction hasn’t been changed yet. Euro was downed by 0.1%, Pound was downed by 1.1% against US dollar.

Japanese Yen was up 0.1% to US dollar, ended at 146.94 yen per dollar. Bank of Japan will decide their rate policy on March 18, 19 meetings.

Let’s see they can exit from 30 years long negative rate system this time.

Japan’s NIKKEI index was downed by another 2% last night. Bitcoin was up 5.3%, reached the highest price ever, ended at $72,033.

Crude oil prices were mixed today.

US crude oil price was downed but Brent oil price was up. Based on NYMEX Brent oil price was up 0.2%, ended at $82.21 per barrel. More conflicts on Middle East and Israel makes oil markets into long term chaos.

In February, OPEC reported crude oil demand in 2024 as 2.25 MILLION BPD (Barrels Per Day) Same month, IEA reported 2024 demand as 1.22 MILLION BPD. These differences are explaining everything about the crude oil market.

In the agricultural markets, price rebound action continues mostly. Funds are covering their SHORT POSITIONS but in cautious mode. It seems like RUSSIANS will be back with more aggressive export prices.

Let’s see some details of the day.

CHICAGO WHEAT MARKET was up by 1.8% today. Last week, USDA reported 403K TONS of WHEAT as export, higher than estimate. But CHINA cancelled 360K TONS of US SRW contracts today. It seems like CHINA no need to import expensive US WHEAT anymore.

RUSSIA reported that they will export 70 MILLION TONS of wheat in 23/24 year and exported 47 MILLION TONS so far. Russia have exported 60 MILLION TONS in 22/23 year.

PARIS MILLING WHEAT was up 1.9%, returned to €200 PER TON regions, recovered from sub-€190 per ton levels last week. It’s encouraging speculators to COVER THEIR SHORT POSITIONS. Rumors are circulating in WHEAT MARKET; they would lower the export FOB prices under $200 this week and GASC is preparing the tender again. LONDON FEED WHEAT was up 2.3%, supported by STRONG TECHNICAL ACTIONS.

US DOLLAR has been strengthened against UK POUND & EURO today.

CHICAGO CORN MARKET was up 0.6%, supported by FUND’s SHORT COVERING actions today in Chicago markets.

CONAB will report their MARCH numbers tomorrow and they could cut more CORN production number. BRAZIL’s SECOND CROP corn is 93% planted vs 75% last year. Next 10 days, HOT & DRY weather would be continued on CENTRAL BRAZIL area.

MIDWEST weather gest DRY & WARM this week and preparing to plant new crop. Strong technical support at $4.35 LINES in CK.

CHICAGO SOYBEAN MARKET was generally downed. SOYBEAN PRICE was downed by 0.5%, SOYBEAN MEAL PRICE was downed by 1.3% but SOYBEAN OIL price was up 1.2%.

PALM OIL stocks have fallen to 7-MONTHS low in Malaysia and PALM OIL futures market closed higher. SOYBEAN OIL price has been spilled over from PALM OIL.

BRAZIL’s new crop soybean crop is 55% harvested vs 49% last year. CONAB will report their numbers by tomorrow and could cut more production number. CHINA’s hog margin is now MINUS $25 PER HEAD this week, up $10 from a week ago, not falling down at least, recovering!! TECHNICALLY, SK remained $11.95 for strong resistance level.