Is Lonzo Ball a bust?
(As I wrote this piece quickly, there should be a lot of typos and grammatical mistakes. Please bear with me.)
Two-fifth of the regular season of NBA has passed so far. With all the hopes and expectation, performance of Lonzo Ball, the oldest son of the Ball family, was rather disappointing. Here are the per 36m statistics for Lonzo Ball (rookie season; 32 games) :
PTS 10.8 FG35.2% 3FG30.3% FTA1.7 FT48.0% TRB7.3 AST7.5 STL1.5 BLK1.0
Based on ONLY 32 games, it is way too early to have any definite conclusion on whether Lonzo would eventually develop himself as an All-star or become another bust. Nonetheless, it would be interesting to compare him with the rookie seasons of other three sizable PGs in the modern NBA (with their names hidden for the time being)
Player X (rookie season; per 36 m statistics for 82 games) PTS 15.7 FG46.6% 3FG26.7% FTA3.9 FT74.2% (Career 3FG31.1%) TRB5.2 AST6.5 STL2.3 BLK0.6
Player Y (rookie season; per 36 m statistics for 77 games) PTS 17.9 FG53.0% 3FG22.6% FTA6.0 FT81.0% (Career 3FG30.3%) TRB7.7 AST7.3 STL2.4 BLK0.5
Player Z (rookie season; per 36 m statistics for 70 games) PTS17.4 FG40.5% 3FG26.4% FTA5.5 FT70.3% (Career 3FG25.3%) TRB6.5 AST6.6 STL1.9 BLK0.6
For comparison sake, here is a 6–4 PG called S
Player S (rookie season; per 36m statistics for 79 games) PTS12.4 FG38.5% 3FG27.2% FTA3.7 FT69.8% (Career 3FG34.9%) TRB5.8 AST8.2 STL2.0 BLK0.3
How good (or bad) is Lonzo Ball?
1. Ball is very poor shooter : Causal fans could tell that Ball cannot shoot the ball. Indeed, his FG% of 35% is among the lowest for the rookies this year and lower than the players above. One peculiar note is his FT% is at a pathetically low 48%, even worse than Shaq (56% in his rookie season) or D.Howard (56.5% career). His poor shooting also spreads out to 3FG (30%), though somewhat higher than his peers above.
2. Ball has extremely low FT attempt : Considering his size (6–6), it is reasonable to expect that Ball would drive to the basket more and/or played some low post game (which Player X was famous for). But Ball only gets astonishingly low 1.5 FT attempt per game, and has only one-third of his shot close to the basket (around 3 attempt per game). On a per 36 m basis, he has less FT attempts per game than Kyle Korver (1.6) and only better than W.Matthews (1.4), who basically stands at 3 point line and never drives into the basket.
While Ball’s athleticism might not be comparable to Westbrook, it is hard to believe Ball cannot drive to the basket. My guess is that rather than unable to drive, Ball is unwilling to drive. His low FT% has implicitly created a kind of mental block for him from driving to the baskets. While the overall game style today (basically a league of jump shooting and 3pt contest) may have suppressed his FT attempt, there are many rookie PGs getting more FT attempt than him — Donovan Mitchell, Dennis Smith, Mike James (a new Mike James, not the ex-Rocket player) to name a few.
The result : The lack of reliable outside shooting and unwillingness to attack the rim has seriously limited the offensive game of Ball.
3. Ball is an above-average ball-passer and rebounder : Ball has very good vision, and managed to get over 7 assist per game. He can also take advantage of his height and grabbed over 7 rebound per game.
In case you are still interested, the players X-S are as follow :
Player X is Penny Hardaway Player Y is Magic Johnson Player Z is Michael Carter Williams Player S is Jason Kid
What if but in reality there is no what if…
If Lonzo had entered the league in the 90s, he should have been a good rivalry to Penny Hardaway and there is a 99.9999% be called the next “whatever” (likely to be next “Magic Johnson”, note that Penny Hardaway also earned this for a moment). With his size, he would easily kill most of the PGs in the west. At that time, it is a bonus for PG to shoot the ball well, as their principle duty is to assist (but not to shoot the ball). They can play on one-hand throughout their career (Gary Payton, Kidd, KJ) and as long as they have a big man to play with, it would be fine.
But unfortunately, the game has changed significantly in the NBA in the past 20 years, with much greater emphasis on PG to shoot the ball well. It becomes a necessary condition (not sufficient condition though) for PG to shoot the ball well, especially 3 points, to have a chance to become an elite PG. While Ball is a decent passer and rebounder so far, this is simply not enough. His poor shooting on every part of the court has already limited his shooting game. The fatal point is his poor FT%, which takes away the only advantage of Ball as a PG — size. This deprives him the ability to drive to the basket and get to the charity line. This is suicidal, and makes him a liability to any offense in the new NBA era.
(On the corollary, it is possible for modern day PGs to earn a solid place in the league with and only with good 3FGs — Austin Rivers, Darren Collison, Patty Mills while weak on other aspects like rebounding. Pure shooter who is an obvious defensive liability like Kyle Korver is still a hot commodity)
Can Ball improve during the course of his career? There is always such a possibility, but historically, at least from this very small sample, the chance is slim. At least, none of players X-S has become a decent shooter and/or attained a 3FG% over 35% in their career. Instead, it is interesting to see what these players (except 1) in the past have done to become Allstar players.
What can we learn from the players in the past…
Among these players, the most relevant to Lonzo Ball is player Z — Michael Carter Williams — who was a decent player with same height (matched), poor shooting ability (matched), playing for a weak team 76ers (matched) and entered the league in the small-ball era (matched; btw MCW as the Rookie of the year in 2014). Yet MCW cannot elevate his game (especially shooting performance) in year 2. After a total of 136 games or 1.6 seasons in Philadelphia, he was traded to Milwaukee (for 79 games) and Chicago (for 45 games) and then waived, before joining Charlotte this year. This echoes with the hypothesis that we need far more than rebounding and passing from the modern day PG.
In the past ten years, we see a lot of good PGs lost favour in the league mainly (and possibly solely) due to their inability to shoot : R.Rondo, T.Evans, MCW, R.Rubio. If history is of any guidance, it is more likely than not that Lonzo is a bust — unless he improves his shooting significantly.
If a significant improvement in shooting is not Ball can (or wants to) do, maybe Ball can look at how player S, Jason Kidd, developed his game throughout his career. To my understanding, Kidd was the only PG player who shot the ball as bad as Ball in his rookie season but became an perennial Allstar. Kidd maintained a high level of assist by turning defense (rebounds and to some extent steals) into fast breaks and easy baskets/assists. In his late days in Nets, Mavs and Knicks, Kidd has also become a reliable defender. Still, Kidd has improved his shooting somewhat in his career. Kidd is renowed for his high basketball IQ, so it is still unclear how Ball can copy the Kidd model. My judgment is that, even Lonzo can improve his assist, he will only manage to be a decent PG in the modern day.
For Player X, Penny Hardaway, during his fantastic tenure in Orlando, he learnt something no PG has been able to replicate in the past 20 years — Playing in the low post (he does not have such a game in his first two seasons). If Ball is to play in the low post, he needs to at least improve his FT%. No guard can play in the league for under 50% FT.
Looking at Player Y, Magic would yield you very different result — he was lucky to have all good teammates and be able to hide his poor defense. Looking at Magic in his rookie season and his last season……I barely see any difference in terms of playing style (except the old Magic is slower). Magic can never shoot the ball well. But unluckily, Ball does not have the luxury as Magic has (being game-saving hero in the rookie season, have the all talents and teammates).
Or Lonzo might consider turning himself into something no one has ever achieved except Gary Payton aka the Glove— a defense specialist and won Defensive Player of the Year at the PG position. The closest thing to the Glove will be the late Dennis Johnson and to some extent Stockton. Still, it is not commonly seen that a PG could earn his reputation for playing excellent defense ONLY (but more plausible for other position — Tony Allen is a good example). Given the very small sample of defensive-oriented PG in the history of NBA, it is even unclear whether Lonzo can succeed.
In the modern NBA, one exception stands out for Ball : There is a gentleman called Russell Westbrook, whose 3FG% was only 27% in his rookie season and 31.2% in his career so far. But Westbrook has made huge improvement in his shooting ability (he cannot shoot 15–17 ft jumper in the early years) and reliability throughout the years — still his FG% by distance has improved across the board, as per basketball-reference.
In brief, my verdict is that Ball can only get a chance to stay in NBA if and only if he improves his shooting game. Or he would soon be another Michael Carter Williams.
(Statistics from https://www.basketball-reference.com/ are used in the article)
#NBA #Ball