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Logic Lens™: “Beijing Warned That World War III Could Break Out” by Fox News

WWIII Could Start Over Philippines Dispute in South China Sea, China ‘not respecting’ Treaties, Expert Says

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Text Analyzed:

Beijing warned that World War III could break out in the South China Sea as it increasingly shifts its attention to the Philippines, with territorial disputes driving tensions ever higher.

“Although we have a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines, China is not respecting it,” Gordon Chang, a China expert and fellow at the Gatestone Institute, told Fox News Digital.

“It was twice last month, on the 5th and the 29th, that the State Department issued written warnings to China that we were prepared to use force to discharge our obligations pursuant to article four of the U.S. Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty,” Chang explained. “That’s a warning that we are prepared to go to war.”

First reported by MEMRI’s China Media Studies Project, the state-owned and -operated news outlet China Daily earlier this week published an op-ed titled “Manila must be warned against horrors of war” by Yang Xiao, deputy director of the Institute of Maritime Strategy Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.

Yang, a frequently featured expert in a range of China Daily articles, drew connections between the current tensions between China and the Philippines and tensions in Pre-World War I Europe.

The article notes at the bottom that “the views don’t necessarily reflect those of China Daily,” but Yang engages in an inflammatory discussion of history and current tensions, referring to the “Sarajevo gunshot” after warning against Philippine politicians’ “flirtation with the U.S. in the hope of gaining the upper hand in the maritime dispute with China.”

“The lessons of World War I should be heeded, especially by small states, because triggering a conflict will serve no country’s interest,” Yang wrote.

Later in the piece, Yang wrote that American “decision-makers” should realize that “the U.S.’s military intervention on behalf of the Philippines would also be disastrous for neighboring countries. The South China Sea has been a sea of peace and cooperation.”

“Only a handful of leaders in the Philippines, ignoring the increasing challenges, such as rising prices, at home, are stirring up the extreme sentiments of the people by feeding them anti-China rhetoric,” Yang wrote. “What they don’t realize is that once the “Sarajevo gunshot” is fired in Asia, the innocent people in East and Southeast Asian countries will become the biggest victims of war.”

China has most recently hassled the Philippines over disputed fishing shoals, with Chinese coast guards trying to chase Filipino fishermen away and leading to tense standoffs between the two.

Last year saw a series of near-clashes between the two coast guards near the Second Thomas Shoal. The Philippine authorities protested China’s use of a water cannon and military-grade lasers.

China established a claim to the Scarborough Shoal in 2012, after which the Philippines formally launched a protest that went before a United Nations-backed tribunal. A 2016 ruling went against China, rejecting Beijing’s claims on “historical grounds,” but Beijing rejected the arbitration and its outcome.

The U.S., Japan, Australia and the Philippines on Apr. 7 will conduct the first full-scale joint naval exercise between the nations in the disputed territories to demonstrate fleet interoperability and provide a show of strength for China.

The nations will then hold a summit in which they are expected to announce plans for joint patrols in the area later this year, according to Politico.

Chang argued that this kind of scattershot approach to stirring up tensions with neighboring countries is unsurprising as China “is probing its neighbors, especially Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines, and it shifts its attention, all the time.”

“China ramped up pressure on the Philippines and then pressure … sort of died down in the last couple of days, and now they’re ramping up pressure on Taiwan,” Chang said. “And while all of this is going on, we’ve now had more than 100 continuous days of Chinese vessels intruding into Japan’s waters in the East China Sea around the senkakus.”

“So, really what they’re doing is they are pressuring, and then they’ll let up, and they’ll go someplace else and pressure at that place,” he explained.

Chang stressed, though, that the Philippines remain “the weakest militarily” of those three targets, despite the agreement of mutual defense with the United States.

“Biden himself, on October 25th issued a warning from the steps of the White House when the Australian prime minister was visiting him that the United States was prepared to use force, so the Chinese just don’t believe Biden at all,” Chang argued.

“There are a lot of people out there who say we will be fighting China this year or next year,” Chang added. “I’m not saying we will, but I’m saying if we will, it’s more likely that the fight starts over the Philippines than it starts over Taiwan or Japan.”

“If you look at the situation involving the Philippines, it’s easier to construct an argument or a scenario that we’re going to go to war with [China] over the Philippines … because you got all the elements in place,” he concluded. “You’ve got all the elements in place for a great power war that starts in the Philippines.”—Fox News

Anchoring Bias:

Anchoring bias may be present in the article, where specific events or statements (e.g., warnings issued by the State Department) serve as anchor points for discussions and predictions about potential future conflicts, potentially influencing readers' perceptions and expectations.

Appeal to Authority:

Quotes from experts like Gordon Chang are used to lend credibility to the narrative presented in the article, potentially influencing readers based on the authority of the speaker.

Appeal to Consequences:

The narrative includes appeals to consequences by highlighting the potential negative outcomes of certain actions (e.g., war, victimization of innocent people), which can influence readers' perceptions and emotions without fully exploring alternatives or solutions.

Appeal to Emotion:

There are appeals to emotions like fear and patriotism to sway readers, such as mentioning historical conflicts like World War I and warnings about innocent people becoming victims of war.

Appeal to Fear:

An appeal to fear is prevalent in the article through discussions of potential military conflict, casualties, and negative consequences of escalating tensions, which can evoke emotional responses and influence readers’ perceptions and decision-making.

Appeal to Tradition:

An appeal to tradition fallacy could be present in the article, where historical events or precedents (e.g., World War I, previous territorial disputes) are used to justify or predict future actions without considering changing geopolitical dynamics or diplomatic solutions.

Bandwagon Effect:

The article might unintentionally encourage a bandwagon effect, where individuals or nations feel compelled to support a particular course of action (e.g., military intervention, escalation of tensions) due to perceived consensus or pressure from others, rather than through independent critical analysis.

Confirmation Bias:

This bias is evident in the article as it seems to emphasize pieces of information that confirm the idea of an impending war, such as highlighting moments where tensions escalate and military actions are threatened.

Ethnocentrism:

Ethnocentrism, the tendency to view one’s own ethnic group or nation as superior, can be implied in the article through the framing of the narrative that portrays China’s actions as aggressive or unjustified, while positioning the US and its allies in a more favorable light.

Fear Appeal:

The statement includes language and scenarios intended to evoke fear among readers, like the mention of the possibility of World War III breaking out in the South China Sea.

Group Attribution Error:

Group attribution error, attributing the actions of individuals to entire groups or nations, can be observed in the article’s portrayal of China as a monolithic entity with unified intentions or behaviors, overlooking the diversity of perspectives and interests within the country.

Hasty Generalization:

Hasty generalization, drawing broader conclusions from limited or insufficient evidence, may surface in the article through sweeping statements about future conflicts or the likelihood of war based on specific incidents or actions in the South China Sea region.

Historical Analogy Fallacy:

The comparison drawn between current tensions in the South China Sea and pre-World War I Europe by Yang Xiao could be seen as a historical analogy fallacy. Drawing parallels between unrelated events from history can oversimplify complex geopolitical situations and lead to false conclusions.

Hyperbole:

The statement includes hyperbolic language through phrases like “Beijing warned that World War III could break out,” which can exaggerate the severity of the situation and potentially contribute to fear-mongering.

In-Group Bias:

In-group bias may be reflected in the narrative’s alignment with the perspectives of certain nations or political entities (e.g., the US, the Philippines) while painting others (e.g., China) in a negative light, potentially reinforcing existing biases or prejudices.

Nationalistic Bias:

There is a potential bias towards nationalism, with rhetoric that emphasizes the interests and actions of specific nations (e.g., China, the US, the Philippines) without considering a more global or nuanced perspective on the situation.

Overgeneralization:

There may be instances of overgeneralization in the article, where specific incidents or behaviors (e.g., Chinese coast guard actions, military drills) are generalized to represent broader patterns of behavior or intentions, without accounting for the complexity and diversity within the involved nations.

Oversimplification:

The article may oversimplify the complex geopolitical situation by presenting a one-sided view that portrays China as the aggressor and the Philippines as the victim, without delving into the nuances of the issue.

Presentism:

Presentism, the tendency to interpret past events in terms of modern values and knowledge, can be observed in the comparison made between the current situation in the South China Sea and historical conflicts like World War I, potentially oversimplifying or misrepresenting historical events.

Scapegoating:

There could be an element of scapegoating in the article, where blame is placed on specific actors (e.g., Philippine politicians, Chinese leaders) for the perceived tensions and potential conflict, overlooking broader systemic issues or diplomatic solutions.

Selective Perception:

The article may exhibit selective perception by focusing on specific incidents (such as military warnings and confrontations) that support the narrative of escalating tensions while downplaying other factors or perspectives that might suggest a different outcome.

Slippery Slope Fallacy:

The article appears to suggest a slippery slope by implying that if certain actions are taken or if tensions continue to rise, it will inevitably lead to a full-scale war in the region.

Us vs. Them Mentality:

The narrative seems to foster an ”us versus them” mentality, pitting China against the Philippines, the US, and its allies, without exploring potential diplomatic solutions or alternative perspectives.

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