Living in Bomb Time — 23
This Earth Day, here’s the last hope I have.
Because it really is, “Now or Never”.
Churchill famously observed.
You can always count on Americans to do the right thing — after they’ve tried everything else.
That’s where I find hope this Earth Day.
Hope.
That after having tried every possible excuse for not dealing with Global Warming and the Climate Change it brings, we will finally do the right thing.
Saving ourselves, by saving the world together.
The alternative is starkly clear.
IT REALLY IS “NOW OR NEVER” TIME.
In 2021, global temperatures were between 1.1 and 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above the preindustrial average. This happened despite it being a La Niña year in the Pacific Ocean, a weather pattern which tends to cool the planet.
It underscores the extent to which human greenhouse gas emissions have fundamentally and irrevocably changed the planet. Even the not-quite-so-bad years are dramatically worse than anything that could have been imagined a generation ago.
Natural variation, like the cooling influence of La Niña, can barely put a dent in the man-made warming trend.
It was the seventh year in a row in which global temperatures were more than 1 degree Celsius above the preindustrial average. Short of geoengineering the climate.
No one alive today will ever see the world’s temperature drop below that 1-degree benchmark again.
There is no going back.
All the feel good things:
Picking up trash on the beach.
Recycling your cans, paper, and glass.
Buying an EV.
Going “vegan”, because of, “you know”, cow farts.
The things we do instead of taking political action.
Those things.
Are all pointless now.
All those little gestures just won’t cut it any more.
We fucked up big time in our assessment of the speed at which the Transient Thermal Response would attain unity with the Equilibrium Thermal Response for this level of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Here’s something to consider.
Right now we are “observing” about 1.2℃ of warming since the “late 19th century” (per GISS). Actual warming is probably about 1.8℃ when the cooling effect of our SOx emissions is factored in and accounted for.
The paleoclimate studies indicate that the last time CO2 levels were this high (approximately 400ppm) global temperatures were about 4℃ higher than now. As I noted in “It’s Raining in Antarctica and the Arctic is on Fire”.
The last time CO2 levels like this were seen on Earth, was three million years ago, according to the most detailed reconstruction of the Earth’s climate by researchers at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and published in Science Advances.
At that time, there were no ice sheets covering either Greenland or West Antarctica, and much of the East Antarctic ice sheet was gone. Beech forests were growing in Antarctica and temperatures were up to 7 degrees Fahrenheit (4.℃) warmer globally, at least double that at the poles, with sea levels some 20 meters (65 feet) higher than today.
How do you reconcile these two data points?
What the paleoclimate data indicates is that we don’t understand all of the “tipping point amplifications” of the current level of CO2. The 1.8℃ we are seeing now is just the “starting point” for the warming we are going to get. The Equilibrium Thermal Response or, Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, is going to be much higher. Probably around 4℃ if our reading of the paleoclimate evidence is accurate.
Warming has started accelerating.
“We should expect the global warming rate for the quarter of a century 2015–2040 to be about double the 0.18°C/decade rate during 1970–2015 (see Fig. 2), unless appropriate countermeasures are taken.”
It’s “Now or Never” time.
Nothing matters now, other than bringing down the CO2 level in the atmosphere.
The plan from “day one” was to extract CO2 from the atmosphere and bring the atmospheric level gradually back down to a comfortable 320ppm.
To about 100ppm below what it is now.
Do not delude yourself that this is going to be easy.
Currently we are putting about 3.5ppm of CO2 into the atmosphere.
Each year.
Every year we delay getting to “Net Zero” globally, makes the problem worse.
It’s “Now or Never Time”.
Consider this.
The sum total of our entire yearly global energy output increases the CO2 level by about 3.5ppm each year currently.
How much energy do you think is going to be required to reduce the CO2 level by 1ppm per year?
My estimate is about 35% of our current global energy budget will be needed to start bringing down CO2 levels by 1ppm per year. With current technology.
All of the energy for this project has to be completely green. Balancing CO2 removal, against additional CO2 emissions to power that removal, is derangement.
So, we should really start on this ”AS SOON AS POSSIBLE”. Because we will be extremely lucky to build out enough CO2 sequestration infrastructure to hit the goal of 1ppm/year reduction rate.
In about 20 years.
If we start “right now” and throw everything we have at it.
While we simultaneously rapidly decarbonize the global economy, without using any more “Natural Gas”.
And expand the power generation capacity by a factor of triple the current capacity. To account for the power requirements of EV’s and the demand for cooling as the planet gets hotter.
Are you beginning to grasp the magnitude of the problem?
If your Senator and Congressperson isn’t demanding passage of an expanded Infrastructure Bill immediately. Then they are OK with millions of their fellow citizens dying in heat waves over the next five years.
That’s how brutally simple the situation has become.
Because, “It’s Now or Never”.
Individual actions aren’t going to cut it any more.
We are going to have to respond in an organized, large scale way. One that dampens the social instability caused by the stress of the “Climate Shock” by reducing inequality and works in a good faith way to provide a global safety net for Climate Refugees.
This means Big Government for the rest of your life.
GET THE FUCK OVER IT.
BECAUSE, IT’S NOW OR NEVER TIME.
The global population has peaked. Those who are obsessing with overpopulation needn't worry.
The global population is about to shrink.
But you better consider carefully how you think that should happen.
For example.
If global food production falls 50% in 2025, will the next president use his power to restrict grain exports?
Will we default on our export contracts to keep food prices low at home.
Or will we honor those contracts and ship grain to China? Think carefully before you chose.
Because both choices have huge strategic implications going forward.
There’s an old saying that amateurs talk about tactics, dilettantes discuss strategy, professionals study logistics. In a world where the grain supply in 2020 was 157.3m tonnes, Russia now controls 55.6m tonnes. About one third.
With Russia to supply it with grain from Ukraine, The US loses one of the last clubs over China it had.
The US can no longer threaten to “cut off” China’s food supply.
A threat, you heard repeatedly BTW during the Trump years from administration officials. Whose attitude towards China was “these are our demands”. “Give us what we want, or we will wreck your economy with tariffs and starve your people by cutting off your food supply”.
Remember all that “tough talk” from Trump and his followers.
Words have consequences.
China has decided that we have become too unreliable a trade partner to bet their future on in a “Climate Crisis”. That’s why they, and India, aren’t getting on-board with the US led sanctions against Russia.
If you listen to the way the Trumpublicans talk on FOX you cannot blame them at all. They are frothing at the mouth worked up about China. Talking about delusional scenarios that “prove” we can win a war with China.
Trying to sound all “smart” by talking about how “conflict between the two powers is inevitable”. Because the current geopolitical situation is a “distant mirror” to the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens.
Which mean’s war “is inevitable”.
Seriously, that’s what’s passing for intellectualism on the Right these days. “History tells us war with China is inevitable.” “Because, Peloponnesian War says so”.
Yet those guys may be back in power soon.
They are already making speeches threatening to “impeach and remove” Biden from office for “Election Fraud” if they secure control of both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections. To us it sounds like empty “political posturing” to fire up their base and get them out in big numbers to the polls.
To foreign intelligence agencies, it sounds like the kind of language that you start seeing right before a coup attempt. Or a civil war.
Thanks to Trump and White America, aka The Trumpublicans, we are seen abroad as unreliable, unstable, and on the verge of a constitutional crisis at a minimum.
Possibly even a civil war.
No one wants to stick their dick into that meat grinder to see what happens. Everyone wants to stay well way away from US internal politics and not pick a side until it becomes clear which side has the most legitimacy.
So, no one wants to deal seriously with us right now. Do you blame then?
Here’s what could happen in 24' in the wake of a “highly contested” election where Republican State Governors in a number of key states shut down ballot counting after the “in person” ballots were counted. Declaring that they were the only “secure ballots”.
China could declare trading sanctions on the US. In a vote of “no confidence” in the legitimacy of the American elections. They could refuse to recognize the Trumpublican President as legitimate.
A lot of the world might back their play.
Just because you don’t care about Climate Change, or don’t believe in it. Doesn’t mean everyone else is as willfully blind and as stupid as you.
A lot of the world is terrified by what’s happening with the Climate.
They have been waiting for the US to step up and lead on this issue. Instead we have waffled back and forth. Wasting everyone’s time.
It’s not even clear who is going to be in power next year. Much less, who is going to be in power after the elections in 24'.
We have become an unreliable partner.
A lot of the world might back China’s play. If that happens, China becomes the new “Superpower” of a world rapidly turning to ashes from uncontrolled climate change.
“The greatest victory is that which requires no battle.”
- Sun Tzu
Which will mean your grandchildren, if any survive, will probably be hunter-gathers in the hellscape of a world that looks like this:
It’s not to late to avert that. But it’s “Now or Never”
Because we can only do one of two things in response to climate change.
- Make a concerted effort globally to get to net zero and reduce the CO2 level in the atmosphere.
Or,
2. Have a global “spasm war” as every nation state starts making a play for resources (think Ukraine).
We don’t have the resources to do both.
What future do you want your grandchildren to live in?
We all need to be clear about what’s happening so that we can make informed decisions when we vote on leadership. We need to “get real” now, because “shit’s about to go down”.
Because global civilization might survive a population die back of 50%.
If, it happens at a manageable rate of 1% a year over 50 years.
It won’t survive a 50% population crash if it happens in just 1 year.
You want a future of “managed retreat” run by Big Government for your children’s future to be stable.
The alternative is “uncontrolled collapse”.
Any questions?
This election it’s a binary choice on what kind of world you want for your kids future.
One that works on managing Climate Change together with the other countries of the world collectively.
or
One of uncontrolled collapse.
The choice is ours. There are still things we can do to improve the situation.
But, It’s Now or Never
So today, on Earth Day, that fact is going to be my hope.
Because.
You can always count on Americans to do the right thing — after they’ve tried everything else.
That time is now, and I’m going to hold onto hope today that once again we will finally start doing the right thing at the last minute.
BUT IT’S NOW OR NEVER.