Frontline Update: “Step by step, Crimea is being demilitarized. We have already covered 70% of the distance. Our counteroffensive is making progress.” Andrii Yermak, head of the presidential office
“Like a Zombie Movie”, Russia pays a heavy price in Avdiivka. Ukraine dug itself into a 28-mile section on the left bank of the Dnipr.”
Fields are “littered with corpses” and there are “trucks full of wounded” Russia creates a second Bakhmut as “human wave tactics” cause unsustainable casualty rates
Russian forces have been advancing in Avdiivka for quite some time. One square kilometer at a time. Ukraine appears to have established a significant bridgehead on the left side of the Dnipr.
ISW calls Russia's latest advance "marginal." This is just like every other advance they've achieved so far.
Ukraine made advances themselves. Russia is suffering unsustainable losses in its advance towards the small town in eastern Ukraine. Here is one of the gruesome reports from this part of the battlefield. According to UK intelligence, Russians suffered around 1000 losses per day in the month of November. The losses have reached WW1 levels. In WW1, Russia took a total of 1.8 million losses.
Table of contents:
1) Current state of affairs on the battlefield (significance of the river crossing)
2) Western aid/ US-congress
3) Personal outlook on future developments on and off the battlefield in 2024
The far more interesting news is that up until yesterday, for several days, it was Ukraine that was the only one doing any advancing around Avdiivka
What is remarkable is that while Russia took huge casualties, it was actually Ukraine making small advances in the past few days. The fog of war is thick, so maybe Avdiivka will fall in time, irrespective of momentary Ukrainian successes.
However, it is telling that Russia is at the point where they can lose 1000, 1100, 1200, 1300 people a day and lose ground at the same time. Ukraine will likely not pull out of Avdiivka any time soon, at least not as long as they can achieve a favorable attrition rate.
You will not find it difficult to prove that battles, campaigns, and even wars have been won or lost primarily because of logistics.Dwight D. Eisenhower
Moscow may be adding 20–25k men a month. That means 700–800 casualties a day is somewhat sustainable. However, modern war is won by machinery and industrial output
The loss of armor/artillery/planes/helicopters is what Russia can’t replace anytime soon. Well, with minor exceptions (old tanks being refurbished and replacing modern tanks). The reality is that it will take Russia maybe 6 months to make such significant gains that they might take the city.
Nothing is ever certain in war, of course. If Ukraine is able to gain ground or launch critical counterattacks, then the time frame could change
I hope that the Russian army overcommits somewhere. Then Ukraine can profit off of that. In my opinion, Avdiivka will fall eventually. The key thing to mention here is that it will not fall due to an encirclement from the northern and southern flanks.
Instead, the Russians will have to move forward very, very slowly and very, very painfully to grind their way through the town.
This will come at enormous costs. Avdiivka will not fall anytime soon, which means it won’t fall within the next 3 to 6 months. This situation is an embarrassment given the amount of resources that Russia throws at this town.
Ukrainian officials said on Tuesday that Russia’s military appeared to be sending fewer troops and less equipment into the battle for the shattered eastern town of Avdiivka, seen as a gateway to the capital city of Donetsk region.
Vast numbers of Russian lives will be lost, and a good chunk of the one million crappy NK shells used up
The severe degradation of the combat effectiveness of the Russian army will place the Ukrainian army in a very promising position come spring, but not if the US Congress continues to hold up military aid.
If the US and EU step up, Putin will lose. If they do not — and the Axis of evil ship another million shells (even crappy shells) then the situation might look very different.
Putin might still win by the stroke of the pen if we don’t continue to support Ukraine
On a positive note, the Russians are one year more through the stockpile of Soviet equipment. The remainder is getting ever smaller and beyond use. It does take time to work through such a huge stockpile, but another years time has passed.
We went from Ukraine, being expected to fall within days or weeks to Ukraine being expected to break through Russian defenses that were prepared for a year.
There has definitely been an improvement. The expectations seem to have increased faster than the situation has improved.
Halting military aid by the US Congress is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory
Ukraine and Russia are locked in a positional war of attrition. Things are hanging in the balance, and both are dependent on who supplies the artillery guns with the most and best shells.
People who have not read up about WW1 always talk about ‘stalemate’
What they don’t get is that by the end of 1917, Russia had collapsed, and the French army mutinied. For Britain, 1918, became the year of victories with battle after battle won — each resulting in hundreds of thousands of Germans captured.
The German army was in constant retreat. By 1918, the German army had ceased to be an effective offensive force — basically capable in defense only. Things look stable until they don’t. That goes for both sides, of course.
Ukraine’s foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro has the potential to be a significant gain
The situation may look stable, but it is actually highly dynamic. What happens in the next couple of weeks will determine what happens in the spring/summer of 2024.
Ukraine could have the advantage, but ONLY if the supply of shells increases and only when Congress finally gets its act together
The Ukrainians dug themselves into a 45-kilometer (28-mile) section of the Russian-occupied territory. The exact location of these positions is, of course, kept as a secret.
Here is how I see this operation of Ukraine and their infamous and much talked about river crossing
It will be tricky initially to go deeper into the occupied territory than the distance that Ukrainian artillery on the right bank can outrange Muscovite artillery. Next, Ukraine will have to set up a bunch of AA/SAMs prior to throwing a pontoon bridge while Russia will send drones their way.
Then, the next complication for Ukraine is to get heavy equipment across the river and to retake enough land quickly enough to push those bridges out of the artillery range of as many Muscovite systems as possible.
If the weather conditions are right, then Ukraine could also drive over a frozen Dnipr river
The situation could become especially awkward, though, when a body of water isn’t either liquid or thickly frozen, so you can’t drive, and you can’t take a boat.
The whole thing is a really high-risk kind of operation where you can lose everything you commit if things go pear-shaped.
If you win the bet, you can get behind all the defenses that Muscovy had built to successfully stymie a more direct cutting of the land bridge and to roll up a good chunk of the front.
This river crossing could either end up being really good for Ukraine or really bad
A less risky objective could be to make enough ‘noise’ to force the commitment of some Muscovite reserves to the left bank just in order to make them unavailable elsewhere. That would be a lower risk strategy with lower rewards.
Speaker Johnson says he is confident Ukraine Israel aid will pass the house
I hope so, Mr. Johnson, this vote is long overdue. Let us not forget that Russia has already lost the war strategically.
Putin’s aims were to prevent NATO expansion and to keep Ukraine within their own sphere of influence. NATO has expanded, and Russia shares a much longer border with the alliance. Ukraine is on the path to EU membership and aims for STRONG ties with the West.
Putin might capture some land, sure, but Ukraine will remain independent and free.
After the atrocities and the genocide that Russian forces have committed, I doubt Russia will ever be seen favorably by Ukrainian people ever again. Let’s talk about military losses. Russian capabilities have been so degraded that they need human wave tactics to make any progress.
Russia is no longer a world power, and they cannot threaten anyone else in the region. Russia has lost over 13.000 pieces of equipment and that is just the confirmed losses. The actual number is according to open source analysts likely 20 to 50 percent higher than that.
Russia can’t take Ukraine, whom we are equipping with NATO surplus. How are they ever going to threaten Poland or the Baltics.
Never mind attacking either of these two is grounds enough for facing off against earths final boss, the US. The Russian empire has lost far more than has been gained - especially in terms of lives lost. However, we must remind ourselves that human life is regarded in Russia as not important.
Nothing is except the imperial glory of their latest incompetent Tsar. From their perspective, any expansion of their ridiculous and ramshackle empire is a wonderful victory regardless of how stupid and pointless it is.
No man can tame a tiger into a kitten by stroking it. There can be no appeasement with ruthlessness. There can be no reasoning with an incendiary bomb. Franklin D. Roosevelt
Mark my words. If their borders are expanded, Russia will be back for more before the end of this decade
We had the same problem with Hitler. There is no appeasing a maniac and we cannot trust a pathological liar to hold his word. Russia is preparing its fascist youth for war with the West as we speak.
This must be our Poland moment and not our Munich agreement
We can’t let them get away with murder. Russia would then regroup, reequip with Chinese help, and rebuild. This process will take a couple of years and lead to mass economic suffering. The Russian Tsar and his boyars won’t care about that. Look at North Korea.
This is what the America First Fools don’t get. Sending millions of shells will ultimately save America lives — at minimal cost — because when the mad Tsar comes back for more, it will likely lead to war with NATO.
“It will take Russia at least 5–7 years to recover its combat readiness. There are many conditions within these estimates that could change the situation. A lot will depend on what the outcome of the war will be, how Ukraine will emerge from it, and how Russia will.” Pavel Czech president
From my point of view, we need the following two things to happen
A) The utter disintegration of the Russian Empire into constituent parts.
B) Constitutional overhaul and total replacement of the entire leadership class. (a denazification akin to post WW2 Germany)
Russia keeps changing their war aims every time they fail to meet their objectives. Maybe one day they will reach one of them, such as "we still hold Crimea" or "we killed a Ukrainian commander," and that’s about it.
It's way too late to ever take Kyiv. The Russian army has culminated. However, the West is still too afraid to put its foot on the bear’s throat. This is a marathon and not a sprint.
Such a large industrial war was always likely to end up as a war of attrition
In a war of attrition, artillery determines who will ultimately win. 70-80% of casualties in WW1 and WW2 were the result of artillery.
This means Ukraine and Russia rely on a constant and massive supply of artillery shells from their allies - and to a lesser extent, drones and more advanced drones. If the US and EU step up, Putin will lose. Why? The answer is ultimately simple.
“A horde of badly led, ill equipped and badly trained mobiks won’t do much against the god of artillery.”
Who delivers the most with the best quality wins it is as simple as that
Every Ukrainian loss is painful due to its three times smaller population and the fact that they didn't choose this war. Just like in Bakhmut, the battle around Adiivka is a chance to drain the Russian military of men and material.
Ukraine will make them pay an exorbitant price for each meter they advance
Ukraine will make sure to make this an absolutely pyrrhic victory for Russia, which leaves Russia weaker and less able to sustain any further actions than before the assault.
Bakhmut cost Wagner roughly 20,000 lives (and thousands more in the regular army). The wounded aren’t included in this number) This led to the fall of Wagner as any sort of serious force. It led to their withdrawal from the conflict and to their current sole focus on Africa. Not to mention the deaths of Prigozin and Wagner’s senior leadership.
Currently, Russia is losing around 800 to 1000 men a day. At that rate, by the two year anniversary of the invasion on February 24th
Russia will lose between 72,000 to 90,000 more men and around 2000 more tanks and armored personnel carriers. That is NOT sustainable. I have nothing but admiration for what Ukraine has achieved, is achieving.
If Ukraine falls and that which is unlikely but still possible then the facts are that her allies - that’s us - fell to enemy undermining because we’re trillions of dollars invested at this point and the world dynamics are already forever altered.
“I will rather be called an optimist and a fool than a pessimist and being right.” Albert Einstein
If we’re reading that Russia advanced in one destroyed wasteland of a neighborhood
Excuse my profanity, but I suggest that we all get our god damned sh*** back together and contact our fickle-a** politicians to remind them what’s at stake and what our expectations are.
Let’s keep Ukrainians and their soldiers feeling this warm wind of our support in their sails and let’s ensure their weapons capabilities are matched to the depravity Russia is willing to go to because that’s where the rubber meets the road.
Cutting off Ukraine aid makes America unreliable, weakens the cause of democracy, threatens the international legal order, encourages tyrants around the world, and hastens Chinese aggression. Timothy Snyder
Conclusion and outlook
Russia’s empire is fighting its twilight war. Should Western support falter, Russia might still be able to hold onto a good chunk of Ukraine. We cannot allow that to happen. The West must ensure that it will be the last war of expansion this empire ever wages.
We must work together to ensure that Putin’s empire will pose no further threat to any of its neighbors. Russia’s own policies and the sorry state of its empire will help us to achieve that goal
Russia’s borders are long and impossible to defend. A large part of Russia is frozen or swampy.
The post Soviet birth rate collapse, skyrocketing mortality, fueled by war, alcoholism, heart disease, drug abuse, HIV, and TBC, is atrocious. Russia suffers through a catastrophic demographic collapse. They don’t have the manpower to restaff their aging industrial workers. Peter Zeihan
We cannot meet this evil halfway again. Enough is enough. 300 years of Russian empire, of Russian genocide must end here
Russia must be healed from its fascist feverish imperial dreams of expansion. Putin’s evil vertical of power must collapse. For Ukraine and for the sake of those that Putin’s Muscovites hold as serfs within their own realm.
For Belarus, Syria, Chechnya the Caucasus, Central Asia, Moldova, Georgia, Sudan, Central Africa and whoever else is under Putin’s thumb.
Post Scriptum
There was a blast at a Russian tank engine facility
The Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant-Uraltrak produces Russian tanks. This plant specializes in diesel engines.
Ukraine will receive Western warships to escort its grain
I hope these ships will manage to protect the grain shipments from Russia’s drone and missile attacks.
“We have agreed with our partners and will accompany ships at sea to ensure their safety. We already have specific agreements to receive the ships.” Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian President
Dear reader, thanks for reading my story
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Take care and be well.
Russiae Imperium delendum est
Sources:
https://kyivindependent.com/isw-russian-forces-advancing-in-avdiivka/