Lessons in crisis preparation & resilience from the human immune system

Think the unthinkable, plan for anything & don’t ignore the small signals.

How can organizations better prepare for potentially catastrophic events and respond to limit the damage? Part of the answer lies in our own biology.

The human immune system prepares for and responds to a vast spectrum of harmful microbes, even those never seen before. It reacts faster and stronger to highly probable events, has downstream flexibility for maximal use of resources, and transmits the smallest signs of threat. Organizations can similarly broaden forecasts, plan for all eventualities, and conduct routine surveillance to enhance crisis preparation and resilience.

The covid 19 pandemic is a human catastrophe with devastating global impact on health and far-reaching consequences on social, economic, political and education systems. The pandemic is exposing vulnerabilities in organizations regardless of size, history, industry and location. It’s a lethal reminder of the importance of operational preparation and resilience in the face of existential threats.

Two questions are inevitability arising: how did this happen, and how do we protect our organizations from future existential threats?

Whilst examining the internal, the direct and the industry-specific circumstances which have led to the detrimental impact of covid 19 on operations, it’s important that leaders also take note of research from a seemingly unrelated discipline — immunology. For centuries, biomedical scientists have been investigating conceptually similar questions: how do microbes cause disease, and how does the body protect itself from life-threatening microbes? After all, we encounter a vast array of harmful agents every day yet aren’t constantly ill.

The centrepiece of nature’s solution for protecting the human body is the immune system — an intricate network of molecules, cells and organs which continually surveys for threats and eliminates harmful agents. If we correlate the human body with an organization, then the immune system equates to the matrix of people, tools and information which combine to detect and respond to potential catastrophic events.

The biology we rely on to defend each of us against the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus holds some answers to how organizations can enhance operational resilience and reduce Black Swan events.

By applying knowledge of how the immune system detects and responds to microbes, organizations can pick up critical lessons about foresight, preparedness and response — the vital areas where blindspots have been exposed by covid 19. Despite best efforts by most organizations, this pandemic morphed from threat to reality because either the event was considered very unlikely or even impossible (and organizations were unprepared), or it was considered a credible threat but actual circumstances overwhelmed the prepared response.

Make the impossible possible

To reduce the risk of surprise by a Black Swan, cognisant leaders perform forecasting exercises. Future possibilities and their likelihood are envisioned, which enables planning for probable futures and steering towards preferred scenarios. Yet, covid 19 has proven that the unthinkable and unforeseen can happen.

The immune system ‘expects the unexpected’. It has lines of defence that are effective against any microbe imaginable, even new microbes it has never encountered before. Firstly, there are ‘innate’ physical, chemical and cellular barriers which indiscriminately stop entry and destroy harmful microbes. Backing up the innate mechanisms are patrolling B cells which are efficient antibody factories, each producing many copies of one unique antibody. The antibodies in turn bind to microbes with extremely high specificity and mediate killing. The human immune system is so sophisticated that it produces billions of different antibodies using only a limited number of genes. As a result, our bodies have antibodies that can react with almost any chemical structure.

From the immune system we learn the benefits that come from accepting that an enormous range of scenarios is possible. Expanding what is conceived as possible allows an organization to conceptualise the occurrence of previously unimaginable events and subsequently prepare for the detection and response. Particularly those events with the most unpalatable outcomes. The immune system assumes that anything is possible and it’s prepared for detecting and dealing with new microbes for which it receives no warning signs.

An organization’s ‘cone of possibilities’ can be extended during forecasting exercises by implementing some practical tweaks. Seek more and different input by engaging a greater number of people from diverse backgrounds, such as professional futurists, all stakeholders, industry peers, critical thinking experts, and creatives. Increasing your own psychological flexibility about the future will pay dividends.

From little things, big things grow

However, even with today’s advanced forecasting tools, the sheer volume of signals, drivers and trends to be collected and analysed is beyond human cognitive capabilities. When signals cannot be separated from noise, the early signs of potentially catastrophic events aren’t detected nor communicated to decision-makers.

To address this issue, cells in the immune system have a very low threshold for detecting microbes and transmitting signals to activation centres (lymph nodes). Interacting with just a few individual microbes can be enough to trigger a response. What’s more, the surveillance, detection and reporting continues throughout and beyond the initial immune response.

Recognising and acting on early signs of threat reduces risk by a significant degree, getting the right information to the right people is critical. A process should be in place for communicating small and early signs of potential threats to a centralised repository for expert collation and decision-making. This facilitates activation of a timely and proportional response. Continued monitoring during the crisis allows updating of forecasts and allocation of appropriate resources.

Machine intelligence is already being used to detect signals and update forecasts and models. For example, the BlueDot platform scans over 100,000 sources per day to detect disease and anticipate impact; it identified the emerging risk of covid 19 and predicted the global spread.

Prepare for likely and unlikely futures

When resources are limited, it makes sense to determine the likelihood of each future scenario and assign resources accordingly. Preparing for highly probable events logically becomes priority. Issues arise though when a low probability scenario eventuates and inadequate resources have been assigned.

Even with limited resources, the immune system prepares for and responds effectively to both low and high probability events. Encountering a particular new microbe (such as the novel SAR-CoV-2 coronavirus) is a low probability event, whereas future encounters with the same microbe is highly probable. For low probability events, the body first utilises a set of generic tools (the innate barriers mentioned earlier). The powerful ‘acquired’ response is also activated when new microbes are detected. Populations of T and B cells are recruited and trained to recognise the new microbe with very high specificity. Whilst these cells have finely-tuned target recognition capabilities, the mechanisms they use to kill are relatively few, but effective against a huge range of microbes. The immune system employs generic detection, specific response and adaptable downstream effectors to deal with varied low probability events.

The point to note is that ‘low probability does not equal zero probability’, so it’s critical to prepare for unlikely events. To avoid wasting resources, determine the points at which specificity is required, and where generic, adaptable and flexible tools can be situated. Regardless of the combination employed, accessibility and communication between specific and generic resources are key.

The immune system prepares for highly likely events too. A single encounter with a new microbe can trigger the development of ‘immunological memory’ or ‘immunity’ so that the body is better prepared for when the same microbe is encountered in future. Some of the T and B cells that are recruited and trained during the acquired response develop into ‘memory’ cells. These memory cell populations are maintained for many years, or for life in some cases. When the same microbe is detected in future, the memory cells are activated to produce a stronger and faster response.

This serves as a reminder that the severity and extent of highly likely negative events can be minimised by taking advantage of organizational memory; the practice of looking back to look forward. Leaders can go a step further by also learning from the experience of others, i.e. developing situational memory. Additionally, routine updating and maintaining not only the knowledge sets but also the response processes and resources is critical.

Only as strong as the weakest link

This brief tour through some of the intricacies of the human immune system shows that our bodies are well-equipped to protect against life-threatening microbes. However, sometimes we are overwhelmed by and succumb to an infection — as the tragic deaths due to the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus remind us.

It’s reasonable to then ask: are there some microbes which the body is simply not equipped to handle, and by extension of the analogy, are there imminent existential threats which an organization cannot survive?

Theoretically, a healthy fully-functioning body can survive any microbial attack. Unfortunately, in reality, microbes can and do overwhelm the body when either the immune system or another bodily system is not functioning optimally. In the case of covid 19, the most vulnerable people tend to have a compromised immune system where at least one component is not working at full capacity, and/or suboptimal functioning of another system or organ. The high covid 19 recovery rate demonstrates the body’s ability to respond to and manage this new microbe (acknowledging that some people are receiving medical treatment which aids recovery), and this is confirmed by research showing that the immune system can detect and respond to the virus.

Similarly, for an organization to survive an existential threat, all parts must be in working order; not just the detection and protection system. Subpar operation in any area creates vulnerability which can be exploited by normally harmless external forces.

If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle. ― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Caution can stymie recovery

Curiously, in some patients the immune system itself may be contributing to the severity of covid 19, via excessive activation of certain cells and molecules. This ‘cytokine storm’ phenomenon provides a final point for consideration: that overly-cautious strategy can impede recovery, continuity and progress.

As the world emerges from the 2020 covid 19 pandemic, a major challenge for leaders will be to strike a balance between under- and over-preparation for future threats.

Returning to old ways of forecasting, risk assessment, crisis preparation and response may not be a viable option for organizations which suffered the impact of the pandemic, if they survived at all. On the other hand, the natural and rational lean towards caution and over-preparation could stymie recovery and much-needed continuity.

The learning curve will be steep for many organizations and leaders, particularly those who must reinvent their approach to futures thinking and crisis management to ultimately boost operational resilience.

Potentially catastrophic events continue to threaten humanity so protecting our organizations and ourselves is a constant undertaking. By including our own immune system as a teacher, organizations can move towards the goal of reducing Black Swans.

For an introduction to the human immune system, check out these videos:

• 5 minute video by TED-Ed: How does your immune system work?
• 3 x 10 minute videos by CrashCourse: Parts One, Two and Three

Dr Kristen Sadler is an independent advisor, speaker and author. She combines a scientific approach with leadership experience and a multi-local perspective to explore the interfaces of emerging tech, exponential thinking, knowledge, truth and futures thinking. kristensadler.com