Why Kyler Murray Is Better Than He Looks This Preseason — and Why Josh Allen Might Be Worse

Numbers don’t tell the whole story when evaluating QBs. Murray might be closer to being a successful NFL quarterback than Allen.

KYLER MURRAY AND JOSH ALLEN ARE TWO OF THE MORE INTRIGUING YOUNG NFL QUARTERBACKS. Murray is a rookie, the number one pick who was handed the reins to the Arizona Cardinals offense. Allen surprised pundits by going seventh last year, then surprised them again by looking better than expected down the stretch for the Buffalo Bills.

Both young quarterbacks are dual threats, as liable to run for a first down as throw for one, and each brings an exciting brand of football to a franchise that hasn’t had much excitement for awhile now. Each QB has played two preseason games, but they’re going in opposite directions. Murray struggled greatly this weekend, scoreless in four drives as his team went down 26–0, while Allen led his team on two scoring drives and an early 10–0 lead.

Critics panned Murray after his tough performance, while analysts like Pete Prisco were quick to praise Allen. But Murray was better than he looked, and Allen may still have a ways to go.

Murray made mistakes but faced an impossible situation

Murray’s four drives against the Raiders gained 13, -6, -10, and -10 yards. That’s 15 plays for -13 yards, almost impressively bad. Murray was 3-of-8 for 12 yards with a 45.8 QB rating and took two sacks, including a safety on his final play of the evening.

But dig a little deeper. Murray was in a tough spot to succeed all night. His average starting position was his own 17-yard line, and he faced 3rd-and-11 or worse five different times. Oakland blitzed early and often, and Arizona’s offensive line was porous. Murray had a pass rusher in his face on every pass and got no help from his run game. No quarterback will be successful with his back on the goal line and a pass rusher in his face every play.

Murray made some mistakes. He got an early delay of game and then two weird false starts when the officials didn’t like the clapping signals he was using, which is bound to throw off a young QB. Several of Murray’s passes sailed over the heads of open receivers downfield. It’s easy to see why analysts didn’t like the results.

But come off the results and look at the process. Murray never panicked. In a rough spot all game, he didn’t force any bad throws or make any turnovers. He also didn’t do what you’d expect a young mobile QB to do — tuck the ball and run at the first sign of pressure. He stood in the pocket and routinely made the right read, finding open receivers, even if his pass didn’t. The process was right, even in a rough spot.

Allen succeeded in easy, vanilla spots

Compare that to Josh Allen. Allen led the Bills on a 13-play 63-yard field goal drive to open the game, then got the ball on the opposing 35 after a long punt return and scored a TD five plays later before exiting the game. He finished 9-of-11 for 102 yards and left with a 10–0 lead. On the surface, that’s a nice looking game.

Allen’s stats were opposite Murray’s, but so were some other things. He was in an advantageous position much of the game, with many short-yardage down situations, a short field, and a strong run game at his disposal. Allen also took almost every snap out of shotgun and made a lot of quick, safe, short passes. He completed five passes to Cole Beasley just past the line of scrimmage and a couple more to LeSean McCoy. These are the equivalent of run plays in 2019. Any NFL quarterback can catch the snap in shotgun and make a five-yard pass to his first read.

The vanilla plays the Bills ran worked, but what does it really tell you to see Allen hit his first read with no drop and no pressure? Quarterbacking is about dealing with variables, being flexible, and making decisions on the fly. Most preseason offenses look somewhat vanilla, but it’s troubling that the Bills aren’t giving Allen the chance to develop his read-and-react ability in the games that don’t matter.

On the rare occasion when Allen’s first read wasn’t there and he faced some pressure, he quickly tucked the ball, looking to run. Allen ran for 631 yards and 8 TDs as a rookie, but quarterbacks don’t make their living running the ball. Running should be a last option, when all else has failed. For Allen, it’s still too often his default.

Why Murray has a better long term projection than Allen

Murray took two sacks, but sometimes a sack can be a good thing. Quarterbacks in duress can either throw it away, turn it over, or take a sack. But it’s essential to play under duress because it’s the NFL and that’s how this works. Big plays take time. If Allen tucks and runs every time the pocket collapses, he’ll get lots of three- and five-yard gains but never hit the big pass down the field. Murray is already showing more confidence and willingness to stand in the pocket and progress through his reads. He’s already making more advanced reads than Allen, too.

The accuracy from this game might concern you, but it shouldn’t. Allen’s 9-of-11 passing is only so impressive when you see how easy all of his quick, short passes were. Allen completed only 56.8% of his passes at Wyoming with a 3.2% interception rate, then worsened to 52.8% and 3.8% as an NFL rookie. College accuracy has proven to be quite predictive of NFL success. Accuracy has always been a major issue with Allen, and 9-of-11 on mostly screens and flats doesn’t change that. Murray completed 69.8% of his passes at Oklahoma with only 1.8% interception rate. He’s going to be plenty accurate in the NFL, as long as he makes the right reads — and it looks like he’s already beginning to do that.

Allen surprised a lot of people last year by posting productive numbers, especially factoring in his rushing stats. He finished the year with 2074 yards and 10 TDs in 11 starts, plus that 631/8 on the ground. Hey you know who else was similarly productive in his first year starting? Tim Tebow threw for 1729 yards yards and 12 TDs in 11 starts, adding 660/6 on the ground. He even won a playoff game — then got exposed against the Patriots and only ever played two more NFL games. That fate will not likely befall Josh Allen, but the similarity to Tebow is not a good harbinger for his future.

Josh Allen is productive, but productivity alone doesn’t make you a good NFL quarterback. Kyler Murray is already showing some early signs that he is. He is standing strong in the pocket, showing poise, going through his progressions, and making reads. He’ll make more mistakes along the way, for sure. But it’s the path you want to be on to become a valuable NFL quarterback. ■

Read more Murray and Allen long form analysis from me at SportsBook Review. Follow Brandon on Medium or @wheatonbrando for more sports, television, humor, and culture. Visit the rest of Brandon’s writing archives here.