Is Memphis’s James Wiseman Really Worth the #1 NBA Draft Pick?

James Wiseman is ESPN’s #1 NBA Draft prospect, but now he’s suspended indefinitely. Is he the real deal at the top of the draft?

JAMES WISEMAN HAS HAD EVERYONE TALKING EARLY THIS COLLEGE BASKETBALL SEASON. Wiseman towers over his peers at 6'11", with a ginormous 7'5" wingspan. He leads the #1 recruiting class in the country for Penny Hardaway’s Memphis Tigers, and he’s the #1 NBA Draft prospect atop ESPN’s early rankings. But, as you probably know, Wiseman has also been suspended for NCAA infractions and may not play again this season.

Wiseman dominated in three games with Memphis, averaging 19.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 3.0 blocks in just 23 minutes a game. He made 80% of his twos with an absurd 47.8 PER. Wiseman dominated physically against smaller opposition and racked up 27 free throws on only 26 field goal attempts, hitting 70.4% of them, impressive for a young big.

Wiseman is a physical specimen, and the early numbers and highlights looked good. So is he worthy of the #1 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft?

OBVIOUS DISCLAIMERS

Obviously we’re going off of an insanely small sample size. We may only get those 69 Memphis minutes — not nice, especially since two-thirds of them came against South Carolina State and Illinois-Chicago.

Even the highly anticipated top-25 matchup against Oregon can only tell us so much. Wiseman got into quick foul trouble and missed most of the first half, and when he was on the court, he played in limited spacing against a zone defense. That’s not at all what his NBA experience will be like.

He’s also playing with a super young Memphis team, with their own Fab Five freshman lineup. It’s still very early and these guys look the part, with little movement on offense and no rotation on defense.

Small sample size caveats abound — but this is the data we’ve got, so let’s take a look.

WISEMAN’S BIGGEST STRENGTHS

His huge frame

Wiseman’s frame bears repeating: 6'11" and 250 pounds with a 7'5" wingspan, an absolute giant for a kid that won’t turn 19 until March 31. Wiseman leaps off the court. As a physical specimen, he’s a man among boys, and he’s probably still growing. Wiseman’s teammate Precious Achiuwa is a likely first-round prospect, and he almost looks small and weak next to Wiseman. There’s no way around it: James Wiseman looks like an NBA star.

His size bothers opponents on defense

Wiseman isn’t Tacko Fall or Bol Bol out there, but his long arms and propensity to block shots are clearly a huge intimidating factor against opponents. Often with big men, it’s almost as important which shots opponents don’t even attempt as how they affect the shots that do go up. Against Wiseman, a lot of shots aren’t even going up.

Wiseman is an intimidator. He loads up on any chance for a block, and you can see opponents cower away and look for another option. Wiseman had nine blocks in three games and affected many more shots and non-shots.

A very good rebounder

Rebounding is one of the stickiest stats from college to pro, and Wiseman looks like a good rebounder. His size and physicality are dominant at times. Wiseman does a great job leaping and grabbing rebounds at their high point, where most others on the court can’t get them. Wiseman’s offensive rebounding will be an especially valuable skill, since it’s the easiest for him to get the ball in position to score.

Still, the rebounding relies more on physicality than technique right now. Wiseman doesn’t do a lot of boxing out or positioning, relying on strength and athleticism to get the board. Because he’s so much bigger than most, that works a lot of the time, but he gets pushed around and out-physicalled by smaller players too and obviously won’t have as much of a size advantage in the NBA. Wiseman also loses some defensive rebounding opportunities trying to block every shot and getting out of position. He’s going to be a good rebounder, but there’s still work to do.

A decent shot and touch

Wiseman has a decent shot, and for an 18-year-old giant, that’s a compliment. Against Oregon, one of the most promising Wiseman plays was a confident, smooth fadeaway from just above the free throw line. It’s a good looking shot that should translate beyond the arc in time, though Wiseman missed his only three pointer.

But Wiseman quickly fell in love with his shot after that make and quickly took and missed several more shots away from the rim. That’s a problem he’s had in high school, too. You want your 6'11" giant dunking on guys at the rim, not taking fadeaway 18-footers.

We don’t know much about Wiseman’s touch around the basket yet because most of his makes are dunks, but 20-for-25 on twos sort of speaks for itself, especially since most of the misses are jump shots.

Wiseman attempted 27 free throws, making 19 of them for 70.4%. That’s not awesome but it’s certainly not bad. It’s a confident, soft stroke and enough to know he’ll hit free throws and shots comfortably enough and won’t get hack-a’d off the court. He’s not Karl-Anthony Towns (81.3% from the line in college) but isn’t Andre Drummond either (29.5%).

Looks natural as a rim runner

Wiseman has the tools to wreck teams as a rim runner and already looks comfortable in that role. A lot of his buckets came in transition or off a screen-and-roll. If you get the ball to Wiseman in space with a head of steam, it’s all over. He has a big catch radius and is always calling for the ball in good positions. You’d think that’s a given at his size, but it isn’t always so obvious.

The screens themselves are kind of meh. They’re a means to an end, a chance to roll and get the ball. And when he’s not screening or rolling, Wiseman hasn’t really figured out what to do yet. He typically runs straight to the block and puts his hand up like “Hey I’m bigger than everyone, just throw me the ball,” but it’s not working. Wiseman sort of floats for position on offense and looks a little lost in half-court offense.

WISEMAN’S BIGGEST WEAKNESSES

Obvious foul trouble potential

It hardly feels fair to tab Wiseman for potential foul trouble. He had five fouls in three games, three against Oregon and one in each of the other two. Against the Ducks, Wiseman picked up his first foul 19 seconds in, jumping at a pump fake and bringing his arms. Four minutes later, he picked up a questionable charging call and that was it for the half. He picked up another cheap defensive foul in the second half but still played most of the half.

So why obvious foul trouble potential? Because it’s written all over the way Wiseman plays. He knows he can block any shot in his area code, and he goes for all of them. He tries to swat every shot and goes for every pump fake. Against better teams, and certainly early in his NBA career, he’s going to get into foul trouble early and often a la Mitchell Robinson, Jaren Jackson, or any number of other number of young bigs. That’s not unforgivable but you can’t affect the game if you can’t stay on the court.

Good but possibly not elite athlete

Wiseman is clearly a very good athlete. He’s the best athlete on the court and would’ve dominated in college. But the NBA is made up of some of the world’s most elite athletes, and I’m not convinced Wiseman is an elite athlete.

It’s important that Wiseman looks comfortable in his body. More than a few big men prospects have looked uncomfortable jumping or just running up and down the court, and that’s often led to injury issues. Not a problem for Wiseman. He runs smoothly and looks like a fluid athlete.

But I don’t see elite burst or quickness, on either end of the court. Likewise, while Wiseman can really get up and extend when he loads up and leaps off of two feet, he’s not quite as impressive off one foot or on second leaps. Again, he’s not bad at those things, but it’s Wiseman’s frame and physicality that overwhelm, not his absurd athleticism. He can’t just outrun the pack or do the Mitch thing where he just leaps out of nowhere and blocks a jumper.

On defense, I didn’t see quick-twitch recovery ability from Wiseman. When an opponent got past him, Wiseman couldn’t always catch up to make the block. He also doesn’t get back well in transition on defense. That ties into the next issue.

Questionable body language and effort

It’s harsh to criticize an 18-year-old’s body language and effort off a few spare minutes on the court. That’s especially true for a guy that was supposed to ignite the college basketball world aflame but knows he might be playing his last game, then gets bummed out at early foul trouble. Still, this is our sample.

Wiseman is engaged well on offense. He over-demands the ball, but he’s always looking to be involved. Better that than the other direction. But it also looks at times like Wiseman thinks he’s a star that should have the ball in his hands all the time. He shows frustration when he doesn’t get his touches, and when he did get the ball more late against Oregon, the shots went up way too quickly. He struggles knowing what to do with the ball away from the rim.

His defensive engagement comes and goes, and the effort getting into the right position or getting back in transition is not what you’d like to see. There’s some questionable body language, and that’s something scouts have worried about in high school too. Big men need to be engaged to stay relevant.

Questionable defensive instincts and mindset

For NBA big men, defense pretty much always comes first. Unless you’re Karl-Anthony Towns or Nikola Jokic on offense — aka among the most talented big men to ever play the game — you have to be good at defense to matter as an NBA big.

The potential is clearly there defensively. Wiseman oozes potential. It’s easy to look at him and dream about what he might become. The problem is the word might.

Wiseman blocks a lot of shots but also goes for way too many blocks. That’s going to lead to foul trouble and get him out of position against smart opponents, giving up easy rebounds and buckets at the rim.

Wiseman moves his feet okay, but not great. He will probably be a better drop defender than switch defender, which limits his defensive value at the next level. It looks at times like Wiseman lets smaller opponents get past him, thinking he’ll try to block them, but he’s not always quick enough minded or physically to recover and make that play.

Wiseman’s defensive instincts and reaction times are a bit lagging. Again, this is not shocking — Wiseman is only 18! But it’s the Wiseman we’ve got for now. His defensive positioning and spacing is not great, and that costs him the opportunity to make a bigger defensive impact at times.

OVERALL NBA EVALUATION

Will the suspension cost Wiseman’s draft stock?

The suspension should have little to no bearing on Wiseman’s draft stock. He’s a known commodity that scouts have followed for years, and nothing about his suspension will have any impact on Wiseman at the next level.

If anything, the suspension could actually end up helping his stock. There are some serious potential deficiencies in Wiseman’s game, and over a whole season with more games against opponents like Oregon, there would have been more opportunities for scouts to pick apart Wiseman’s game.

Consider Darius Garland and Kevin Porter Jr. Both were early standouts last year. Garland got hurt after a few games, never played again, and still got drafted top-5 on potential. Porter was a presumed top-10 pick, but instead of sitting out after his early issues, he came back and looked very flawed, and he nearly fell out of the first round because of it.

On the sidelines, all we’re left with is the Wiseman we imagine, and right now, that is by far the best version of James Wiseman. In a weak draft class, an imaginary version of Wiseman is a surefire top-10 pick.

What sort of player does Wiseman project to in the NBA?

That’s always the question, isn’t it? Projections are tricky because every player is unique, and projections can become an easy crutch. But in this case, projecting Wiseman into the NBA is the key to his evaluation.

NBA bigsthese days are a dime a dozen unless they really stand out. That means being a top-5 offensive center like Towns or Jokic or being a top-10 defensive center. Anything other than that, and you’re just another center in the NBA, fighting for minutes and hoping for the right matchup.

There might be something like 50 to 75 centers in that next tier outside of the top standout group. Some are a little better than others, of course, but some are also getting paid $20 million a season more than the minimum veterans providing 80% of the production at 10% of the cost.

For NBA big men, good isn’t good enough. You’re either great, or you’re just another guy.

And that’s my fear with James Wiseman. He’s clearly an NBA body, and he certainly looks like a guy who could be very good in the NBA eventually. But it’s hard to imagine the version of him that’s an NBA star without doing a lot of imagining. He’s not going to be a top-5 offensive center, so he’d need to be an elite defender to be worthy of such a high pick.

At his best, Wiseman seems like a rim runner extraordinaire. Maybe that’s a slightly more balanced Mitchell Robinson, with a little more offense but not as much freaky defensive potential. Maybe it’s super JaVale McGee, who can absolutely mash off the bench or in certain matchups, devastating rolling to the rim and catching lobs in space. Perhaps Wiseman adds a bit more touch and is a smaller version of Mo Bamba or a stronger Jaxson Hayes.

These are good players! They could be great players! Hayes and Bamba were top-10 picks, and Robinson probably should’ve been.

But there are real problems with this player type. They typically have a very long developmental curve. That’s fine for a guy you take in the second round like Mitch, but it’s not okay for a #1 pick you’re paying almost $10 million a year, who you expect to get on the court and produce right away. Another problem is that this archetype tends to struggle with foul trouble, and again, you can hardly play like the #1 pick if you can’t stay on the court.

This archetype plays limited minutes in general, between foul trouble and being very matchup dependent. They tend to be a dependent player. Their value depends on other factors — maybe a smaller opponent or a great pick-and-roll guard that can get them the ball for easy scoring opportunities at the rim.

There’s nothing wrong with all these things! Many NBA players are dependent. Only a few are superstars. But those true superstars are the guys that change everything, the guys worth taking a shot on at #1 overall.

Does James Wiseman change everything?

It’s hard to see it. He might be a good player, maybe even a great one in time, but he feels more like a developmental project right now than anything. He’s an imagination station, a dream. You don’t draft James Wiseman to be what he is right now. You draft what you hope he becomes five or seven years from now. But will he still be on your team, if he ever gets there? And will you, the one drafting him, if it takes that long for your #1 pick to pay off?

Is James Wiseman worth the #1 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft?

The jury is still out on what James Wiseman might become someday. And that’s okay! That’s the case for almost every NBA prospect.

But no, James Wiseman should not be the #1 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft.

And no, James Wiseman will not be starting on the Golden State Warriors next year, pushing them back to dynasty mode. Wiseman is not Zion Williamson. He’s not a generational talent, and he’s not going to come in and dominate or even start right away. It’s much more likely he plays 20 foul-prone minutes a game and gives you some uneven bench minutes.

And again, that’s okay! It’s okay if that’s what you get from your #10 draft pick or your #25 pick or a second rounder. But it’s not okay from the #1 pick. It’s just not an option.

By the time James Wiseman is a positively contributing NBA player, this entire generation of Warriors will be past their prime, and there will be no championship contention. If the Warriors do get the #1 pick, they’d be far better off trading for a veteran that can help now or using that huge salary slot elsewhere.

James Wiseman is a very good NBA prospect. In a top-light draft, he looks certain to be a top-10 pick and will likely get taken higher than I’d draft him. And maybe he’ll be worth the investment!

But James Wiseman should not be the #1 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft. ■

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