It’s Not Basketball; It’s Chess

The NBA off-season has featured an incredible battle as the Bucks, Lakers, Pelicans, Suns, Thunder, and Trailblazers look like big winners. Will any other team join their ranks?

A flurry of massive trades have electrified the atmosphere heading into draft night, as some teams swing for the fences, others plant the seeds for a brighter future, and a few just look to put out the flames.

Here’s a summary of the moves so far by tiers.

TIER 0: Subtraction through no additions

These top contenders for next season are handicapped with cap space problems and glaring weaknesses that other teams may not want to solve. When we compare them to Lakers, Bucks and Heat, their inability to improve will probably push them further down the mountain.

Boston Celtics

Year after year, the media trumpets the genius of Danny Ainge. While he fleeced the Nets and 76ers in trades and got tons of assets, he has consistently failed to do anything with them.

To be fair, the Celtics found two stars in Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown, but they did not find a franchise-altering MVP level player at the level of Giannis or Luka. They are also not quite at the level of the guys who continue to block their path to the Finals.

But the Celtics’ other draft picks have been mostly disappointments.

Boston fell short in the Eastern Conference Finals three times, as Ainge refused to trade his precious draft picks for Paul George, Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard.

And the Celtics’ reputation for screwing over teams in trades and showing no loyalty to their own players (remember Isaiah Thomas?) reduced their desirability as a free agent destination. Both Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Davis expressed no desire to stay with the Celtics if traded there, not exactly a ringing endorsement of the organization.

The Celtics don’t have any cap space because of the bloated contracts of Kemba Walker (a huge defensive liability) and Gordon Hayward (whose skills overlap Tatum and Brown). Neither player will help Boston in playoff crunch time, and the team’s weakness at center remains a huge question mark.

The Clippers

“L.A. Our Way” was the Clippers’ tagline last season as they bragged about their blue collar hard working approach all year, including this billboard right next to the Lakers’ practice facility.

The trash-talking ad campaign provided more locker room inspiration than I have ever seen in my life, including these gems: “MAN MYTH” “Driven Over Given,” and “Streetlights Over Spotlights.”

Of course, we all knew which team turned out to have dogs that bite, instead those who just bark. And the Clippers’ bragging inspired hilarious push back from twitter.

The Clippers fired their coach, who set a record for blowing 3–1 playoff series leads and promoted their assistant, who is best known for coming back from a 3–1 playoff series deficit. Maybe that will help.

But the big issues are the lack of a good point guard, the lack of a good center, an offense that lives and dies by its outside shooting, and a shockingly bad defense considering the talent they could put on the floor.

With a salary cap of $109M this year, the Clippers’ projected team salary is over $150M, so they will probably lose key rotations players in free agency.

Also, they gave up all the first-round draft picks in the Paul George trade.

Finally, Kawhi and George can become free agents after next season, leading to a swift descent back into basketball hell.

Like they said, “L.A., Our Way.”

Denver Nuggets

Denver is a good, young team that overachieved in the bubble. It’s hard to believe they could have done the impossible (coming back from two consecutive 3–1 playoff series deficits) if the team had to play elimination road games at Utah and at Los Angeles.

Having said that, the core of Jokic and Murray is one of the best duos in the NBA. The question is not who is better this season (they’re in the top 5), but who will be better than them in three years, when LeBron, Curry, Durant, Harden, Paul, Butler, and Westbrook are all over 34 years old?

The problem is they have a bunch of bad contracts for good 82-game players who don’t seem capable of moving the needle in the playoffs, like Gary Harris, Paul Millsap, Will Barton, and Mason Plumlee. Even though the team gets off of the Millsap and Plumlee contracts, there are still over the salary cap.

And their nightmare scenario is losing their third best player in Jerami Grant, who is now a free agent. He was the key reason the Nuggets didn’t get destroyed by Kawhi Leonard in the playoffs and they contained LeBron James in four out of the five games in the Lakers series.

If they don’t lose Grant, Denver will get better as their core, plus Michael Porter Jr. continue to improve.

But it won’t be enough of an improvement to help them make them a sure bet to reach another Western Conference Finals.

And that’s still a step backwards.

Golden State

I’ve only got six words to describe the predicament of the Warriors, and the very good chance they will not even reach another Western Conference Final.

Cap space hell and Andrew Wiggins.

There’s nothing else to say about the franchise that was light years ahead of the rest of the NBA.

TIER 1: The Dumpster Fires

Houston Rockets

There wasn’t enough time to even announce “Houston, we have a problem” as the Rockets’ season came crashing down in September:

• The team imploded after the third game, as the microball experiment failed badly against a small ball lineup of LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
• Danuel House violated the quarantine rules to become the only player ejected from the bubble.
• Mike D’Antoni announced he would leave the team as the team boarded the plane leaving Orlando.
• GM Daryl Morey left the team on October 15, one season after signing a five year extension.

How bad do things have to be for a team to have an elite coach and GM want to leave their high-paying jobs?

Let the fire sale begin!

First, the Rockets gave up their third best player, Robert Covington in a trade with Portland (to be discussed below).

Then Russell Westbrook announced he wants to be traded.

Yesterday, James Harden rejects a gazillion dollar extension and said he wants to be trade to the Nets. The Rockets could become a 15-win team in the fastest nose dive a team has ever taken.

TIER 1.5: Is Daryl Morey a Genius?

Philadelphia

The good news: Daryl Morey is a creative genius as a team builder.

The bad news: they are in cap space hell.

The good news: they fired a terrible coach incapable of making in-game adjustments in the playoffs.

The bad news: they hired a terrible coach incapable of making in-game adjustments in the playoffs.

The good news: Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are two of the ten best players in the Eastern Conference.

The bad news: Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons used to be two of the four best players in the Eastern Conference.

The good news: if Embiid gets in shape and Simmons can make some outside shots, they could form an unstoppable combination.

The bad news: Philadelphia fans are on year three of the transformation watch.

[UPDATE: I just saw the trade that dumped Al Horford, so I had to take Philadelphia out of Tier 0.]

Getting rid of Al Horford is fantastic news for the 76ers, as he didn’t fit with the roster and his skills looked to be declining. I’m amazed that Morey is getting off one of the worst contracts in the league at such a low cost (34th pick in the draft tonight, a lightly protected 2025 first-round pick and the draft rights to a Serbian guard Vasilije Micic).

I didn’t put Horford in the bottom 5 because it’s possible he can still play. And he is one of the few centers who can shoot three pointers and defend elite players in the post. We won’t know until we see how he fits with the Thunder.

By trading for Danny Green, Philadelphia had added a guy who didn’t shoot well for the Lakers last year, but is still an excellent wing defender. He is everything Tobias Harris is not.

Suddenly, a roster of Ben Simmons, Josh Richardson, Matisse Thybulle, Danny Green, and Joel Embiid could become the defensive powerhouse people envisioned last year. Maybe these guys can win games 80–79.

But one thing is sure. A great defensive team does not go 12–26 on the road.

If Morey can get some value while dumping the Tobias Harris contract, that could vault him into the top tier in my rankings.

But I wanted to finish this article before the draft, so Morey’s story is to be continued…

TIER 2: The Asset Builders

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans saw enough of their young core to realize the need to keep rebuilding. They had an All-NBA Defender in Jrue Holiday, an excellent team defender in Lonzo Ball, and a long-limbed pest to guard the passing lanes in Brandon Ingram.

Despite that potential defensive talent, the Pelicans had one of the worst defenses in the NBA.

So they got rid of the offensive-minded Alvin Gentry and brought in a defensive specialist in Stan Van Gundy.

And they almost got as many assets for Jrue Holiday as they got for Anthony Davis.

Davis: Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, 3 first-round draft picks, and two future first-round pick swaps with the Lakers.

Holiday: Eric Bledsoe (a top defensive guard), George Hill (led the league in 3-point percentage last season), and 3 first-round draft picks, plus still-to-be-announced pick swaps.

Aside from Ingram, the Pelicans got the same haul of players and draft picks for a borderline All-Star guard as they got for a Top 5 NBA player. For context, the Spurs got DeMar DeRozen, Jacob Poeltl and a 2019 first-round draft pick for Kawhi Leonard.

New Orleans has a long way to go to turn those future assets into a championship roster, but they came out a big winner, while retaining young stars in Zion Williamson and Ingram to go along with a deep roster of guards who can defend. If they can find a good rim protector, the Pelicans have an outside shot at competing for a playoff spot.

OKC Thunder

If you think Griffin did a fabulous job for the Pelicans, just look at what Sam Presti has done the last two years. He traded players better known for their playoff flame-outs than their All-NBA team selections and will basically own the NBA draft for the next six years.

• In 2019, Paul “Corner Three off the Backboard” George brought in a better haul than Anthony Davis: Danilo Gallinari, a potential franchise guard in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, FIVE FIRST-ROUND DRAFT PICKS, and two first-round pick swaps.
• Presti unloaded one of the five worst contracts in the league in 35-year-old Chris Paul (only Wall, Westbrook, Harris, and Wiggins are worse because they are expensive AND they can’t contribute to a winning playoff team). Every other team with a bad contract is hoping to move the player without giving up more assets. Presti got two good rotation players in Kelly Oubre and Ricky Rubio, and a 2022 first-round pick.

Presti also got the 28th pick and a possible trade asset in Danny Green for Dennis Schröder, who will be an unrestricted free agent next year. It’s a good trade for OKC, but it could be even better for the Lakers (see below).

OKC has three under-22 players (Gilgeous-Alexander, Dort, and Bazley) who played well in the bubble playoffs to go with a good center in Steven Adams and veterans Rubio and Oubre. In the East, that could be a playoff team. In the West, they will be competitive but probably end up with a high lottery pick in next year’s loaded draft.

Welcome to The Process 2.0, except that the team will compete and entertain their fans.

Presti is a genius.

TIER 3: Pushing their chips to the center of the table

Phoenix Suns

Were the Suns blinded by the light of their 8–0 bubble run? We saw Devin Booker hit a game winner against the vaunted Los Angeles Clippers when we thought the Clippers were still the title favorite.

There’s a lot to like about the young Phoenix core of Booker, DeAndre Ayton, and bunch of good young rotational players like Cameron Johnson, Mikal Bridges, Jevon Carter, and the resurrected Cameron Payne, who all played great in the bubble. They’ve bought into their young coach Monty Williams, and they have a couple of young floor spacers in Saric and Kaminsky.

What drove the Suns’ massive improvement between the 2018–2019 season and last season was the addition of a stabilizing veteran to direct the offense, when they signed point guard Ricky Rubio.

During their exciting bubble run, the looked good against in a couple of games against teams that were still fighting for playoff positions, but also won a few games against teams with no motivation. It was truly a shame their early season injuries put them in a position where they lost the tiebreaker to Memphis for the play-in game. They might have been the hottest and best equipped team of the bubble to play the Lakers in the playoffs.

Having said all that, was the bubble enough to justify the belief that the Suns could be a playoff team?

We’re about to find out, because the Suns pushed all the chips into the table with Chris Paul.

Here’s what we can say:

• The Suns went 8–0 without Kelly Oubre and Aaron Baynes in the bubble.
• Chris Paul is a huge upgrade over Ricky Rubio at point guard. His ability to get shooters open shots helped the Thunder almost beat the Rockets.
• The Suns didn’t give up one young player who contributed to the bubble run.

This season will be brutal in the Western Conference, but the Suns have a shot to make the playoffs if Chris Paul stays healthy.

Milwaukee Bucks

This is more of a case of “fool me once, shame on me, fool me twice Giannis flees.”

The Bucks went all in with two huge trades, but none of it was necessary. I wrote before last season that the Bucks had to keep Malcolm Brogdon because he was at times their second best player in the playoffs.

This was one of those cases where you can’t let a free agent go. Even though they got a first round pick and two second rounders, the cost was unbelievably high because they were terrible in the playoffs for the same reasons:

• Coach Budenholzer uses a system that kills it in the regular season, making them look like a historic super team as they beat the dregs of the East by 30 points every game. But he doesn’t sacrifice those regular season stats by working on alternate styles of play. And when they reach the playoffs, superior coaches make adjustments for which the Bucks have no answer. Brogdon was good enough that he gave the Bucks a shot at winning in spite of the coach’s deficiencies.
• Giving Eric Bledsoe a big contract when it is clear he stinks up the court in the playoffs.
• Teams can adjust to Giannis’ inability to consistently hit mid-range jump shots by walling off the paint.
• The other role players all got tight in the playoffs because they don’t get enough experience making big shots during the regular season.
• Khris Middleton is a very good player, but not enough to win a game by himself in most playoff series.

As a result, the Bucks went all in to get Jrue Holiday (see the deal above in the New Orleans section). They lost a net of two first round draft picks to get an older player who is slightly better on defense, but a big downgrade on offense and it’s going to cost them an extra $4–5 M per year.

Milwaukee also hopes to sign Bogdon Bogdonovic a great shooter and mediocre defender, to replace Wesley Matthews.

These desperate moves don’t make the Bucks a lot better, as they will lose their depth. But it is a move that had to be made in order to show Giannis Antetekoumnpo that they are serious about building a championship roster around him.

The fear of losing Giannis in free agency next year forced their hand, so in a sense Milwaukee will be happy to keep their star for another five years, regardless of the cost.

Portland Trailblazers

Portland is in the same situation as Milwaukee. The simply can’t waste the end of Damian Lillard’s prime. Portland doesn’t have a lot of cap space or assets to build their team, but they started the feast, picking off the bones of Houston’s carcass with an excellent trade.

They got an excellent small ball 5 in Robert Covington from Houston in exchange for Trevor Ariza’s expiring contract and two first round draft picks.

Covington was great in his role with the Rockets, probably the third best player on the team after Harden and PJ Tucker. He iswho bounced back from a disastrous playoff run in Philadelphia and poor utilization in Minnesota to become a a very good two-way player who can play crunch time minutes for a playoff team.

While this move won’t be enough to push Portland up into contender status, it will help them stay close to compete for a first-round bye in the playoffs.

TIER 4: The Chess Masters

Los Angeles Lakers

As great as some of the GMs above have performed, there is still a big difference between creating the hope of future assets and improving a champion’s chances to win another title.

David Griffin did a wonderful job of squeezing assets out of the Lakers, but Anthony Davis helped the Lakers another ring.

A bird in the hand is worth six in the bush

The Lakers won a championship, and they are aiming for more because of the underrated team building skills of Rob Pelinka and LeBron James.

Pelinka was attacked by so many people for so many reasons, I won’t waste time on that. I was one of the people who doubted his abilities, but I will never doubt him again.

Everyone except people inside the Lakers’ organization ignored one key sign that Pelinka might become just as successful of a GM as he was as an agent: he had the Kobe Bryant seal of approval.

Think about this. Kobe was one of the most driven, hard working basketball players in NBA history. He chased Shaquille O’Neal out of town after a three-peat and four Finals in five years. How could Pelinka have survived a 20-year relationship with Kobe if he didn’t have the same kind of drive and work ethic of his star client?

Obviously, the Klutch Sports connection that led Pelinka to sign Kentavious “Manna from Heaven” Caldwell-Pope helped land LeBron James. And that connection helped land Anthony Davis.

Last season, the league laughed at the Lakers for losing the Kawhi Leonard sweepstakes, and putting together a roster of castoffs and ill-fitting parts in the span of three days.

In hindsight, guys like Alex Caruso, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Rajon Rondo, Dwight Howard, and Avery Bradley all had massive chips on their shoulders and contributed to playing with a ferocity that turned the defense into the true third star of the team to go along with the two superstars.

The one part of the roster-building process where Pelinka and LeBron dominated the NBA chess board last season was in team chemistry. The connections between Rondo and Anthony Davis from their days in New Orleans helped bring in Boogie Cousins. Rondo was also a teammate of Avery Bradley in Boston, and that connection helped them bring in a guard who was jettisoned by the Clippers as unplayable just a few months before.

With the Schröder trade, we may have seen another combination of moves along the lines of last year’s Rondo-Anthony Davis connection. Here’s how the pieces seem to line up:

• The Lakers picked up Markieff Morris at the trade deadline and he became a vital role player during the team’s title run. They want him back next season.
• Guess who played with Morris in 2018–2019?

Dennis Schröder. But there’s a third piece still roaming free on the board.

• Guess who played with Schroder and Morris that same season for the Thunder?
• Guess who plays the position left open by Green’s trade?
• Guess who spoke with LeBron at length at the end of the WCF after torching the Lakers in Denver’s one win?
• And guess whose salary last year was close to the Lakers’ now-freed-up MLE this year (as a result of the Schröder-Green trade)?

Jerami Grant is going to sign with the Lakers.

Checkmate.