It’s Here! 25 Big Predictions for the 2016 NFL Season

Betting tips, division winners, and a Super Bowl pick!

It’s been a long offseason, but the NFL season kicks off today with a Super Bowl rematch in Denver, and it’s time to get the season underway! And not a second too early.

Which teams will surprise this year, and who will disappoint? What players will win the rushing and receiving crowns, and which teams will lock up division titles and playoff berths? And will it be Denver or Carolina there on Super Bowl Sunday once again?

I dug into the numbers and pored over the schedule, and I have answers.

Here are 25 fearless predictions for the 2016 NFL season.

1. Carolina struggles in close games this year and sees its record fall back much closer to .500. The Panthers look like the best team in the NFC South, but the magic usually wears off after the perfect season, and the halo may wear off from MVP Cam Newton the first time something goes wrong too. New Orleans could hang close in the division and may have a shot to steal it. At +600 odds right now, they may be worth a look.

2. Jimmy Garoppolo could really struggle Sunday night against a tough, fast Arizona defense that has had a long time to prepare. That’s a tough debut on the road on national television. But the Patriots will be fine. They follow that up with three home games against Miami, Houston, and Buffalo and should win two or all three of those games even without Brady.

3. Along those lines, New England should coast to another AFC East title without any real trouble. Barring a disastrous start, they’ll get to 12+ wins easily and no one else in the division may even hit .500. Take advantage of those -200 division odds while you can.

4. New Philadelphia quarterback Carson Wentz will show the Browns exactly what they missed out on Sunday, leading the Eagles to victory in his first start. Isn’t it just so very Browns-y to skip on a franchise QB at #2 overall, trade the pick away, and then lose to that same guy to start the season?

5. The Browns won’t be the only team to struggle early. The Jets have a brutal schedule to start the year, with six of the first seven opponents likely playoff teams. They could easily start out 2–5 or even worse, especially if they panic and bench Ryan Fitzpatrick or make a coaching change. The Browns and Jets play in week 8. It’s possible one or both could still be going for their first win.

6. After finishing last in their divisions a year ago, both Chicago and Miami could look like contenders early on — but it’s a mirage of easy schedules for both, and each will fade out of the wild card picture by season’s end.

7. Minnesota will not seriously contend for the division or even for a playoff spot. Sam Bradford is terrible, and optimistic as Mike Zimmer may try to keep the team, it’s just too devastating losing the franchise player like that right at the start of the season. Minnesota was due to regress anyway, and a tough schedule could see them sitting on just 3 or 4 wins heading to December.

8. If you do the math, Green Bay should win the NFC North pretty easily, probably by two or three games. Their line is anywhere from -125 to -300 depending on how books have reacted to the Bridgewater and Bradford news, so plan accordingly.

9. Seattle and Arizona are the class of the NFC this season. They should fight for best record in the conference, and their two matchups will be among the year’s marquee’s games, as the outcomes could determine who wins the division and gets the 1-seed and home field advantage in the playoffs. The NFC West winner is the Super Bowl favorite. Advantage Seattle until we are sure Carson Palmer is ready for another top campaign.

10. The most entertaining division battle in the NFC may come down to the East, where a bunch of solid teams duke it out with no big favorite. I like Dak Prescott to start out really well with the Cowboys. I think he could go 4–1 and earn the full time job, and Romo may watch the rest of the year from the sidelines. This division will come down to the final couple weeks, and I like the Dak Attack to win it for Dallas.

11. The 2-seed in the NFC really seems to be up for grabs this year, with a bye week waiting out there for any team that can hit 11 wins. Even 10 could do it this year. Green Bay is the favorite for now.

12. Over in the AFC, the West should keep us all on the edge of our seats all season. There’s a lot of parity there, and you can talk yourself into any one of the four teams winning the division if things bounce right so pay attention to division games. I have the Chiefs as a slight favorite, the most balanced of the teams.

13. One shock contender in the AFC could actually be the Tennessee Titans. Marcus Mariota quietly had an outstanding rookie season and could be ready to make the leap into the top 10 quarterbacks, and the Titans have a super easy schedule early on and don’t face many good QBs all season. They won’t be a solid underdog in a game until at least Nov 13 against Green Bay. They could start out as good as 6–2 and have a real shot at this division, and they’re listed around +1350 if you’re looking for a long shot.

14. The AFC South in general could be a real surprise early on. The entire division has an awesome schedule to start the season. My simulation has Tennessee, Indianapolis, and Houston all starting with 5 or 6 wins in the first half of the season — but don’t be tricked. None of these teams are actually good and they’ll all regress. It still looks like 8 or 9 wins may get the title.

15. The most important division battle looks like the AFC North where I expect Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore all to make the playoffs and win double digit games. Until we see someone step out in the South or West, it’s those three teams and the Patriots who look like the AFC’s final four. It’s a toss-up between the three teams, and any matchups will be must see.

16. Baltimore in particular is a great team to take a gamble on if you’re looking for a real long shot this year. Joe Flacco has had almost a year to recover and should be ready to go, and the team has reloaded at receiver and added stud Eric Weddle to its talented defense. And most importantly, they’ve gotten healthy again. Before last year’s season from hell, Baltimore had won 8+ games seven straight times and they should do so again easily. And remember, this is a team that knows how to perform in the playoffs and always seem to play well against the other likely contenders. Baltimore is +1600 to win the AFC and +3300 to win it all. They’re not the favorite, but they’re the best long shot bet.

17. The top five draft picks in the league will belong to San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York Jets, and Cleveland twice, one by way of Philadelphia. It’s just hard to see any of those teams getting anything going this year.

18. Along those lines, several of those teams look like the most likely under bets. I’ve got four teams finishing more than a game and a half short of their Vegas line. In order of confidence they are: LA 7.5, SF 6.5, Minnesota 7.5, and NY Jets 7.5.

19. There are a bunch of good over bets out there for the contenders. Seattle 10.5 and Baltimore 7.5 look awesome. New England 10.5 and Arizona 9.5 should be in great shape as long as the QB play isn’t miserable. And you have to like that Tennessee 5.5 line if Mariota is as good as he looked last year.

20. If you’re looking at the prop bets, one of the safest bets out there appears to be the passing title. Drew Brees won it last year despite missing a game, and he finished 1st or 2nd in the previous four seasons too. He will be chucking and always racks up yards, and at +500 those odds just don’t make sense. If you need someone with longer odds, you might look to Indy where a lack of a run game could make Andrew Luck viable at +1600.

21. The receiving yardage title is always a crapshoot so stay away from the favorites like Antonio Brown or Julio Jones. I really like Demaryius Thomas at +3300. Thomas finished in the top four in 2012, 2013, and 2014 before dropping to seventh last year with a QB that couldn’t throw the ball. He should be in the mix and that’s all you’re looking for there.

22. Stay away from the rushing favorites too. Running back is tough to get a read on this year more than ever, but Adrian Peterson could struggle in Sam Bradford’s offense, and Todd Gurley could be playing from behind all year. Honestly, Ezekiel Elliott should be the favorite. He’s as talented as anyone and running behind the best line, one that led Darren McFadden to 1100 yards just a year ago. Elliott has a great shot at +900.

23. Russell Wilson is the fourth favorite for MVP right now behind Rodgers, Newton, and Big Ben, but he’s my pick. He is Seattle’s offense at this point and though he might not have the stats, he’s going to have the highlight plays and could likely be the best player on the best team. Peyton is retired, Brady can’t win it in 12 games, and Cam just won. The field is open and it might be Wilson’s time. At +1100 in some books, that looks like a great bet.

24. The AFC favorite is New England at +400 but here’s one case where the favorite is worth a bet. The Patriots have an incredibly good chance of getting a first-round bye, and that means they are already one-in-four to win the AFC with at least one home game. Even if you’re not sold on the Patriots later, you’d have a great chance to hedge against them in January.

25. The best two teams in the league are both out west — Seattle and Arizona. They both have nasty defenses, MVP-caliber QBs, and tough run attacks, and they’re both well coached teams with a clear identity. Whichever team wins that division is the Super Bowl favorite. Vegas favors Seattle between the two at +900 versus +1100 for Arizona, and I agree. Seattle is the pick, and Russell Wilson leads his Hawks to an MVP and the Promised Land.

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