Israel’s Next War Might Get A Little Gassy

It’s the Middle East… take God out of the equation and when has fighting not been about land and resources?

In the United States, the mode de jour for conducting business is based on compromise. You give a little, I give a little, and we both walk away annoyed because nobody got exactly what they want.

In the Middle East, it’s not like that. Everyone is trying to screw each other over. If you’re in a negotiation with someone, and you don’t feel like you’re wrecking them then watch out…

They’re probably screwing you.

So it’s no wonder that diplomatic negotiations break down in a matter of moments between neighbors in this over-baked crater of the world.

This brings us to our latest news headlines, the ones revolving around the recently discovered gas pit in the disputed waters between Israel and Lebanon… and the Israeli ship that has just anchored there.

Karish means shark in Hebrew.

It also happens to be the name of this particular gas field located 75 kilometers northwest of the port city of Haifa.

Like a shark, it’s hidden deep beneath the murky blue waves. It’s beautiful, mysterious, and potentially dangerous. However, this particular shark has billions of dollars worth of natural gas deposited underneath its natural blue beauty.

Thanks to it, that blue may soon be mixed with red.

Until recently, Hezbollah and the Lebanese government hadn’t done much other than making vague threats over Israel claiming legal rights to the gas field off its shores… and then a Greek-owned gas ship protected by the Israeli navy came sailing into these waters.

Now the tides have shifted. Hassan Nasrallah has threatened to destroy the ship and deliver “consequences” to the Greek company Energean for its role in the gas extraction.

Israel is already preparing for this eventuality.

Last week, Israel wrapped up its biggest military drill in decades. Based on the island nation of Cyprus, thousands of Israeli soldiers used Cyprus’ mountainous terrain to practice an invasion and takeover of southern Lebanon.

As a “grand finale” Israeli F-35 fighter jets flew over the Mediterranean Sea mimicking a bombing run against Iranian nuclear facilities. Israel knows that a war against Hezbollah will likely result in anywhere from 1,000 to 3,000 rockets being fired at the tiny country per day.

In a country as small as Israel this means that most major infrastructure will be destroyed and hundreds of civilians will be killed.

In response, Israel has promised retribution, calling any civilian infrastructure even suspected of housing Hezbollah military equipment as a legitimate target and taking advantage of the war to strike against Lebanon’s main ally, Iran.

Hundreds of Israeli civilians will die, but Israel will ensure that thousands of Lebanese, and likely Gazans as well, will die in the ensuing war.

All this to provide gas to a starving Europe.

Due to the war in Ukraine, Europe has stopped importing natural gas from Russia and is desperately scouring the globe in search of new energy importers. With two gas fields, Leviathan and Tanin, already being pumped by Chevron, Israel is looking to increase its output and diversify its infrastructure partners.

On June 13 the European Commission president is expected to arrive in Israel in order to begin talks with Jerusalem and Cairo about how best to get this sweet, smelly gas over to Europe before the weather turns cold again and heating bills skyrocket.

Israel is willing to risk war to ensure this need is satiated.

However, there seems to be a fly in the shawarma… for Lebanon.

Lebanon knows that this natural gas reserve could be the salvation for its floundering economy. With hundreds of billions of dollars of natural gas located beneath the waves, Lebanon could revitalize its economy and save itself from potential collapse or civil war.

There are just two problems though:

The first is that Lebanon is absolutely paralyzed with political infighting. The second is that initial satellite imagery shows that the Karish gas field is on the Israeli side of the maritime border.

That hasn’t stopped Lebanon from trying to end this parade, and it might not stop the war either if Hezbollah attacks.

Lebanon has called for renewed negotiations over the maritime border, and has even pressed US diplomat and Senior Advisor for Energy Security Amos Hochstein to get his ass to Beruit to settle the matter… but as of yet Washington has not dispatched him.

Lebanon had unilaterally tried to change its maritime border, with a proposal over 2 years old still sitting on President Aoun’s desk. But Aoun may be willing to negotiate with the Americans on returning the maritime border to its initial placement in exchange for the Americans allowing for Egyptian gas and Jordanian electricity to flow to Lebanon through Syria. Or for the Americans to remove his son from their sanctions list, allowing him to become the president of Lebanon once his father dies.

This alone might be provocation enough for Hezbollah to attack.

Hezbollah, for its part, has refused any notion of negotiating the border, and wants the president to sign the proposal tout suite! Refusing to do so, and a willingness to negotiate with the Americans and allow the Israelis to drill might be an opportune moment for Hezbollah to display itself as the true military force of Lebanon and defender of the Lebanese people as a whole… not just of the Shia minority.

Attacking an Israeli naval ship would of course invite retaliation. Which would bring more retaliation. Which would likely bring more retaliation. This is how wars start in this region of the world. Small attacks turn into big attacks, which then turn into full-scale warfare.

All over a pile of gas named after the shark.