“Is the U.S. Creating an Axis of Doom?”

As the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues and the Israel-Hamas crisis deepens, new geopolitical forces are reshaping the world.

“World’s Most Dangerous Combination: China and Russia,” warned Gordon G. Chang for the Gatestone Institute on December 25, 2023.

It was a Christmas Day warning for the ages.

“China and Russia are more than just working together,” Chang began ominously. “They are forming the core of a new axis. Around this core are proxies and proxies of proxies, such as Iran, North Korea, Algeria, and a host of terrorist groups.”

“The Chinese and Russian leaders are forming this grouping because they believe the United States, the final guarantor of the international system that frustrates them both, must be taken down,” Chang continued.

“In other words, China and Russia are preparing to go to war together,” he wrote. “As no country threatens either of them, they are undoubtedly thinking of perpetrating more acts of aggression.”

Chang, the author of The Coming Collapse of China, isn’t the only geopolitical prognosticator warning of trouble on the horizon.

In many ways, these warnings echo billionaire savant Ray Dalio’s recent prediction that the U.S. is sleepwalking towards war with China.

“For nearly 40 years, I have been going to China,” began Dalio in a lengthy LinkedIn post on April 26, 2023. “I have built very close friendships there and participated in its evolution, not in the pursuit of money but in the pursuit of meaningful work and meaningful relationships. I enjoyed an abundance of both and feel a deep commitment, like you would feel with your friends, to help. That has put me in the privileged and awkward position of being deeply attached to the two greatest powers in the world, which are on the brink of going to war with each other.”

“What I mean when I say that the US and China are on the brink of war is that it appears that they are close to having a sanctions war and/or military war that neither side wants but many believe will probably happen because a) each side is very close to the other’s red lines, b) each side is using brinksmanship to push the other at the risk of crossing each other’s red lines, and c) politics will probably cause more aggressive brinksmanship over the next 18 months,” he warned.

“As for the two sides not being able to talk with each other, what I mean is that discussions about big, important things have become exchanges of accusations that worsen relations rather than help them, so it is worse to have the discussions than to avoid them,” Dalio lamented. “While there are some tactical discussions aimed at preventing slipping over the edge into war (e.g., on topics like how to deal with Taiwan President Tsai’s visit to the US) and both sides agree that these tactical exchanges are good things, there is growing belief that the unavoidable trajectory is toward war. This belief is due to the unfolding of circumstances, politics in both countries, and geopolitical considerations.”

With this weekend’s presidential election in Taiwan going against the Chinese Communist Party’s preferred candidate, Dailo’s words seem even more precisent and important.

“The political timetable of the election cycle between now and the 2024 elections in the United States and Taiwan will likely lead to more push-the-limit anti-Chinese brinksmanship from the US. For example, US congressional hawks and their actions, such as hearings from Representative Gallagher’s Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, together with most candidates for the presidency, the Senate, and the House of Representatives appealing to a populace that wants its leaders to stand up to China, plus Taiwanese politics, will all likely lead to pushing to the brink of or beyond the red lines,” continued Dalio. “Because China and the US are already at the edge of war, pushing hard against China over the next 18 months will be very risky.”

With the recent election in Taiwan going against the CCP, things are likely to get worse before they get better, according to experts like Dalio.

“US-China relations are getting so bad that there is reason to worry that anti-China sentiment could make doing business with China like doing business with Russia, which would lead US-China trade to collapse,” he fretted. “This would have similarly damaging economic consequences, though many times larger, severely hurting supply chains and trade. That would at a minimum cause severe economic consequences for the US, China, and the world and at a maximum could lead to military war.”

“Still, I think virtually all countries want to stay out of the conflict with China and want to go about business as usual recognizing that the days of doing business as usual are over,” the financial genius mused.

But it isn’t as if there isn’t any hope, says Dalio.

“Have a delegation of US senators and/or representatives visit China,” he urged. “‘If they can visit Taiwan, why can’t they visit Beijing?’ one very senior China foreign policy maker asked me. There will be a delegation of senators visiting Asia. It would be a good sign (for those who want peace) if they visit China and a bad sign if they don’t.”

Planning for an unofficial delegation to Taiwan has already begun. With any luck, lawmakers in Washington will consider suggestions from experts like Dalio.

If 2023 taught the world one thing, it’s that the last thing we need is more war.

(contributing writer, Brooke Bell)