Is Herd Immunity Achievable?
A Look At How Vaccines + Omicron Might Help Us Overcome Covid
62.8% of Americans (207 million) are fully vaccinated, and there have been 65 million cases of Covid so far. Overall there is some overlap. Some of those cases of Covid are the result of the same person getting it twice and some of them are vaccinated people that caught Covid. However, there are likely far more cases of Covid than reported, because the number of Covid cases is a function of testing and not everyone who got Covid was tested for it.
So 207 million Americans are fully vaccinated + 65 million cases of Covid. Assuming some overlap lets estimate 265 million people with Covid antibodies. There are 330 million Americans. That gets us to 80% immunity.
“Depending how contagious an infection is, usually 50% to 90% of a population needs immunity before infection rates start to decline.” (Source Johns Hopkins)
Since Covid is quite contagious, let’s assume we need to reach that 90% threshold to be well protected. Getting from 80% to 90% means we need 33 million people to get vaccinated or catch Covid. At the current rate, I think we could hit that number within a few months. Currently 800,000 Americans are getting Covid per day. It will be a rough few months, but could we be out of the water after that?
Possibly, but there are a few reasons this might not happen.
For one, the rate of infection could decline, meaning it would take longer to get to 90%. This is not necessarily a bad thing, but it would slow us down from reaching herd immunity. My guess is that most Americans who haven’t gotten the vaccine yet aren’t planning on getting it. It’s been widely available for nine months.
Additionally, there are some important questions we need to ask about immunity.
Are vaccines effective in preventing Covid? Many vaccinated people have gotten Covid.
Is previous infection effective in preventing Covid? There are people who have caught Covid twice.
So if vaccines and previous infection don’t actually prevent us from catching Covid , then we might never reach herd immunity. I think the main reason for this is the variants. Of the reinfected, it’s likely that people who got alpha or delta are now catching omicron. A variant is an evolution of the existing virus. Since it is different to the original virus, it means that the antibodies for one variant are likely to be somewhat less effective on the new variant. It’s also possible that the vaccine is more effective against alpha and delta than it is against omicron (it was designed for alpha).
How long does immunity last for?
Immunity from catching Covid will last longer than immunity from a vaccine, but in either case the number of antibodies starts to decline over time. Having some antibodies is better than no antibodies, and your body will mount an immune response much faster if it has antibodies. The duration of immunity also depends on how rapidly the virus evolves into new variants.
My Predictions
I believe that the most likely outcome is that we will have seasonal Covid, similar to the flu and colds, for the foreseeable future. Viruses spread quicker in colder months when we crowd into indoor spaces. The biggest spikes in new daily cases have occurred in January (2021 and 2022). We are going to have pretty high levels of immunity, but the virus will likely evolve enough each year to stay around. The good news is that viruses generally become less deadly over time.
I think we are likely to see new vaccines being created for the new variants, similar to what is done for the flu each year.
The CDC is now saying that most people are going to catch Covid at some point. If Covid is here to stay and you are likely to catch it, the best thing you can do is to boost your overall health and immune system. If you are healthy, your chances of dying from the new variant are quite low.
Make Your Immune System More Resilient:
- Exercise regularly — 30–60 minutes per day 4–6 times per week.
- Eat fruits and vegetables — Vitamin C and other nutrients will help boost your immune system.
- Spend at least 15 minutes outside each day (in direct sunlight if possible). This will boost your vitamin D production which also strengthens the immune system. Supplement vitamins C and D if you need to.
- Cut back on processed sugar, alcohol and smoking. Sugar is associated with diabetes and weight gain. Overweight and diabetic people are more likely to get seriously ill from Covid. Alcohol can cause weight gain and weaken your immune system. Smoking irritates the respiratory system — the part of your body which Covid targets.
- Mental health is important too. Maintain a healthy social life. Isolation and extended time on social media might harm your mental health. Set a date with a friend to walk outside together.
One of the best ways to accomplish all of these in one fell swoop is to find an accountability / workout partner. Someone who will exercise with you, cook healthy meals with you and be there just to talk when you need them. Of course make sure to reciprocate. This is a sign of a beautiful friendship and will benefit your mental and physical health. If you feel like you need more help, consider hiring a personal trainer, a health coach or a therapist.
If all of this overwhelms you then just start simple. Walking two miles outside per day is going to provide tremendous benefits compared to staying stagnant. The important thing is to stay consistent.
The best part of all of this: you are going to look and feel great. You are going to be happier, healthier and less afraid. 2022 is the year that you take your health into your own hands. Get after it relentlessly.
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