BITCOIN | CRYPTOCURRENCY
Is A $200k Bitcoin By The End Of The Year Bearish?
A quick dive into my end-of-year prediction and macro technical analysis for Bitcoin
Price Prediction For Bitcoin
I think a $200k Bitcoin by the end-of-year could be considered a bearish prediction.
During the 2013 cycle, Bitcoin increased by an incredible 164x from the market cycle bottom in just 469 days. In 2017, Bitcoin only increased 79% of the previous cycle, which works out to around 129x in 1064 days.
Now for this cycle, if Bitcoin can move the same as the difference between the first 2 cycles, it would again move just 79% of the previous cycle and reach a modest $318K. This would still be diminishing returns as Bitcoin will have experienced a second drop of 21% in price performance.
If Bitcoin only reached $200k then it would have only increased 49% compared to the increase of the 2017 cycle. Bitcoin in this scenario would have experienced a massive 51% drop in price-performance when compared to the previous cycle.
We only have 2 previous data points so it’s difficult to make an accurate prediction but I think $200–300k in December this year seems likely.
History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes.
After this cycle is over, we will have 3 cycle peaks and market bottoms. This new data will enable us to predict the next cycle with more accuracy.
Timing
My rationale for an end-of-year cycle peak is based on the past two cycles, both ending in December and several other price models, which also predict December as a likely cycle peak.
As you can see, Allen Au’s model is expecting around 88 days until the projected cycle peak from the 23rd September 2021, which brings us to 20th December 2021.
Jordan Lindsey’s model similarly predicts a cycle top in December 2021.
And finally, we have another example of a model predicting a cycle peak in December 2021 by Root.
What’s your price prediction for Bitcoin?
DISCLAIMER
I am not a financial advisor. This is not financial advice. This article is for educational and entertainment purposes only. The information in this article does not constitute or is intended to be investment, financial, trading, or any other advice. The information in this article is general and in no way specific to you or any reader. Before making any financial? decisions, be it an investment, trade, or otherwise, always consult with a registered professional or financial advisor.
These Charts Tell us That Bitcoin is Not Finished Yet | by Delilah Brass | ILLUMINATION | Medium
September 2021
Delilah Brass