Geopolitics
International conflicts & possible wars to beware of in 2023
The balance of power is shifting on the world stage
As if the War in Ukraine isn’t a big enough problem for quite a lot of people, there are a few other conflicts you might not be aware of that are close to breaking out into a war or serious internal conflicts in 2023.
I’ve ranked and given some quick insights into regions around the world to watch out for in 2023. Each section, from least amount of conflict to the potential of the most. Here is what to watch out for:
Northern Ireland
This one is pretty low of the conflict scale, but the amount of problems and old history it brings up is likely to bring a few quagmires throughout 2023. The IRA 2.0 has just introduced itself to the world in the most gruesome way. On the 22nd of February, Detective Chief Inspector John Caldwell was shot four times in a parking lot after coaching a youth football team, with his son standing next to him.
It was an act of terrorism to be certain, and four men are currently being question as DCI Caldwell continues to cling to life. However, the New IRA, or NIRA, represents a symptom of the ongoing tensions that have been brought back to the surface by other world events.
“The IRA’s mandate for armed struggle derives from Britain’s denial of the fundamental right of the Irish people to national self-determination and sovereignty.” ~ the New Irish Republican Army
With all the talk of sovereignty and self-determination going on in Ukraine, it is no surprise that someone out there would become inspired. When you combine that with the British STILL trying to figure out what they are doing after Brexit, and thus dragging their legislative feet for several years on trade across the Irish North/South border — this makes a lot of sense.
Over the years of studying Geopolitics, I have often found that social movements (terrorism being an extremist social movement) are influenced, and sometimes directly related to state activities. Nothing happens in a vacuum.
This comes as a juxtaposition where the British Prime Minister meeting today (27 Feb 2023) with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, twill close a trade deal for the Irish Border.
It has been an ongoing issue because almost immediately after the Northern Ireland Protocol came in place in 2021, where the EU claimed the British had committed several breaches.
The signing of the deal is just theatre, and what follows this symbolic moment are all the issues that will come bubbling up.
The first being, and oddly I might say, a meeting where the Commission President is meeting with King Charles. This is bound to feel off-putting to the Irish which could cause additional knock-on effects in the political realm.
The ride is bound to be made a bit more bumpy by the Democratic Unionist Party (the DUP) and the hardline Tories (British Conservative Party). However it plays out, it will upset someone. Additionally, this moment will likely be where the groundwork is laid to pave the way for Boris Johnson to return to power in this summer.
All this is being decided far away from the Border itself, by people who don’t live there. Combine that with the Red tape of the EU and British Inability to make a decision and organize themselves — trade tensions are bound to boil into social unrest.
If negotiations aren’t settle soon, which I would I would bet on seeing more conflicts bubbling to the surface this year. The idea of a war is very far off. However, what is becoming clearer, any deal with the EU will logistically split the trade of goods across the United Kingdom. This will in turn effect the economics, and when that happens, you can start counting the days to the fracture of the U.K. itself.
Israel
In case you missed this, with everything else going on in the world, in December 2022 the King of Jordan gave a stern warning about the emerging hardline government in Israel. King Abdullah is not one to weigh in very often, and certainly not so blatantly. I’m pretty sure he did this so it was on record.
The King of Jordan is in many ways the arbiter within the region around Israel. This is because he is in charge of the Hashemite custodianship, where his job is to see that Muslim and Christian Holy sites remain safe for visitors in the city of Jerusalem. He often jokes that this places the Jordanian Royal family “between Iraq and a hard place”.
However, 2022 saw the most violence in Israel for the last two decades. This was somewhat lost in the mainstream headlines and I believe down to two factors:
The installation of a hardline Israeli government
In 2022 Netanyahu was re-elected to be Israeli Prime Minister. Yes, that is for a third time. He previously stood as PM from 1996–1999, and then again from 2009–2021, and now since December 2022.
However this time PM Netanyahu seems to have brought an even more hardline government with him. So far we are seeing:
- an attempt to erode the powers of the Israeli Justice system
- outright support from the government for West Bank settlements
- and despite both Palestinians and Israel talking about commitments to reduce violence, we have seen Palestinians killing Settlers in the last few weeks, and today Israel sends in hundreds of troops to find them.
The Third Intifada
It is heavily rumored that another Intifada is on its way. What that means is a complete breakdown of the rule of law. Since the last Intifada which ended in 2005, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has remained hot to the touch on the ground.
Lets be honest, it’s been smoldering since the end of the Six Day War in 1967.
A Third Intifada would mean a widespread Palestinian uprising. This rumor might be being used as a rallying cry for Palestinians, or a possible scare tactic toward those who support Israel. Only time will tell.
Either way it does seem like the fog of war is setting in because its beginning to be too many actors in the struggle wearing multiple hats. It seems short-lived sustained conflicts are almost a certainty in 2023.
North Korea
Another one to always keep an eye on is North Korea. They saber rattle when they don’t get enough attention, or sometimes when they don’t get the right kind of attention, or sometimes in response to other regional actions, and sometimes just because its Tuesday.
I’m sure they’ll be ticked off that they didn’t get listed as the biggest baddest threat in the land, but hey-ho.
Ok, I shouldn’t be so glib because Kim Jung Un actually runs are heinously gruesome regime where the entire population lives in constant fear and most are starving to death.
So what’s different now? It’s not just the number of missiles ‘crazy Kim’ is firing off these days, it’s the sophistication of them.
We’re only at the beginning of March 2023 and North Korea has test fired around 6 missiles. For 2022, around 85 missile launches or various types were launched. Various missile types from various platforms have shown that Korea has a respectable amount of capability in compared to years passed. You can definitely say that the North Korean missile program has matured.
I can see North Korea being used as a hired gun by other regional powers. However, tests are very different than military action. Lets hope we have some reliable interventions should that day come.
Ta!wan
That regional power I just spoke of is of course Ch!na. The South Ch!na Sea and especially the Ta!wan Strait are probably the most dangerous regions in the world right now, outside of Ukraine. Air and Sea traffic are heavily monitored on both sides.
In just the last week, Washington confirmed to the Wall St Journal that between 100 to 200 U.S. soldiers are being sent to Ta!wan to provide training to their troops.
Meanwhile, Ch!na has a tendency to make long term plans to get what they want. One of the ways they are doing this is by creating man-made islands in international or disputed waters so they can expand their territory and manufacture an international claim. This is much like Israel with its West Bank settlements, except the engineering is on a much grander scale.
When this kicks off, is anybody's guess. I expect to see many more incursions between the U.S. and Ch!nese Air Forces this year. Sometimes daily. However one thing that you can expect is should sustained combat begin, it will be fast.
The bigger worry, with the proximity of U.S. and Ch!nese Navy and Air Forces tangling on a near daily basis, a mistake or false flag by either side (yes, the U.S. does them) is highly likely to spark the overall conflict.
Why is this all happening now?
It depends on how you study history. From a geopolitical view, which is the main perspective of this article, it is because the world is moving from a Unipolar power (the United States), to multipolar. States that smell opportunity, or weakness in powers structures, are going to take advantage.
There will be more to come for sure, and I’ll do my best to bring what I can into context.
If you have a story or topic you would like investigated, please get in contact directly or in the comments.
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