COVID-19

India’s Second Wave of COVID-19 Explained

For the past two weeks, India is witnessing a massive surge in cases touching around 300,000 cases a day. Let’s dive into the article to understand why there has been a wave-like never ever before. Reasons for the same and also the consequences are decluttered in detail.

After successfully controlling the initial wave of the pandemic in 2020, India had successfully bent the curve by the end of the year. It started the vaccination drive by December and hoped to crush the pandemic soon. Despite slow vaccination progress, everyone believed that there was light at the end of the tunnel. Everything went fine till mid-March. Numbers after a long time started to spike up by the end of the month.

By April first week, most states reported a massive surge in the cases followed by an explosion of cases by the second week, which led to nationwide outrage. In the third week, we are witnessing a nationwide outrage against the central government as well as several state governments in handling the second wave of the infections.

A big salute to all the health workers, doctors, nurses, healthcare staff, scientists, govt. officers, health officials of the govt., the police, lawmakers, leaders, vaccine manufacturers and distributors for their continuous support and service to the nation and beyond in their fight against the pandemic.

Important questions- What, Where, When, Why, and How still remains unanswered and are not known to the wider public. How severe is the second wave? What are the reasons for the same? What is the way forward? Are all the regions affected in the same way? Did we underestimate the disease? Are we better than last year? We will be looking at these queries closely.

Reasons

We always like to centre out the discussion onto one particular reason but always we can find that there are multiple reasons and not just one. Many of us like to blame the government or even other people. Fundamentally, we are to blame for our own individual mistakes as well. We must understand this disease doesn’t single out anyone and everyone is equal before the disease. Despite that, we spend a lot of time pulling out on other’s failures and neglect ours. Following are the probable reasons for the second wave as per experts. The reasons will be different in different regions as well as the extent of the spread. Also that reasons have never worked in isolation to bring in new cases, but have amplified the existing situation and increasing its spread.

New strains and mutations of the virus

A virus spreads continuously amongst the population, over time it changes its DNA sequence through genetic mutation. It might permanently change the virus forever in some cases too. This time the mutation has just mutated and is spreading. This is called a new variant or strain. Popular examples of new variants of coronavirus include the Brazil strain, the UK strain, the South African strain, etc. There is a new variant that is being reported in parts of India called the triple mutant virus, which is responsible for the new wave. The new variant appears deadlier than the novel virus and also spreads easily. New variants are now held responsible by health experts for the second wave.

Post-Lockdown relaxations

India’s lockdown was seen as one of the hardest and strictest in the world. Announced in a few hours, India’s lockdown came as a surprise. It was followed by economic downfall, job crisis, migrant crisis etc. It had multiple phases of unlocking that followed. Everything was supposed to be ending well enough. Other than normal international flights and air travel, everything pretty much returned to a kind of normalcy.

With the lockdown ending, there was a perception in the country that everything is back to normal. In rural and other areas, especially in the northern and central states, COVID-19 was mere history. It was a license for everyone to get back to their normal life, congregate, hold meetups and events, etc. They don’t wear face masks too. The only state perhaps where almost everyone wore a mask was Kerala. Although small spikes were expected in big cities and towns, we can see that everything has backfired with a surge once again.

Improper vaccination strategy

Vaccines should have started the end of the pandemic but the story is now exactly the opposite. Large parts of the country are facing an acute shortage of vaccine despite being the world’s largest producer of vaccines. Less than 10% of the country is fully vaccinated and the vaccine strategy of the government has fully failed. At the present rate, India will reach nowhere in terms of attaining herd immunity.

Now the government has taken a bad decision of opening the vaccine to everyone above the age of 18 when not even half the elderly and middle-aged adults have been vaccinated. 90% of India’s COVID cases come from less than 100 districts of India. These are concentrated in metro cities, big cities, populated regions, etc. The government should have focussed on these areas first for providing vaccine and creating herd immunity. Also, there were no campaigns done by any government agencies to ensure a high turnout for vaccination drives. Wastage of vaccines after expiration dates were also reported in many states.

India stood adamant on its indigenous vaccine policy until last week. It was only recently, it gave clearance to all WHO-approved vaccines for emergency use in India, namely Sputnik.

Lack of preparation

The government was totally unprepared for the tremendous disaster. Maybe we have never expected this or we have underestimated the danger. Unlike 2020, where we didn’t know anything about the virus or how to fight, we had more than a year to prepare for a massive caution which the government and the system failed to do so.

Fake news and information crisis

When you open social media, you are a victim of tons of fake news and fake information which come in disguise with a genuine cause. It is rampant in a country like India, which is diverse at the same time, not so ready to place its footprint in the digital world. Most of the Indians don’t know how to use them properly. Whatsapp groups are being used to share fake information regarding COVID-19, vaccines, immunity etc. Most of the elderly and adults consider them to be credible too. They fall prey to propaganda. You may say that educated people won’t do that, but the reality is that it's the educated class that is on social media the most.

Regarding vaccines, a lot of fake news was circulating regarding their contents, origin, side-effects and even on their safety. They were claimed to be causing side-effects or even how rarest of the rare cases were highlighted and used to attack it. There are people who claim to have worn mask and still don’t follow other rules like social distancing or washing hands. Wearing a mask is only one step. Most of them wear masks only to avoid fines from the police. They wear loose masks or wear them only covering the mouth.

Indians are also a set of people who are obsessed with self-medication. They mix remedies with cure. This disease doesn’t have any cure or home remedy but still, a lot of so-called influencers and experts promote a lot of fake news regarding the disease, vaccine etc. On the other hand, there are people who still believe that having taken one vaccine dose makes them immune to the disease and they can walk free even without a mask. This is absolutely not true.

Earlier we used to visit the WHO website for authentic information, now all these have just stopped. Instagram, Facebook and Twitter have become our our official sources of information.

Obsession of Indians with self-medication

India is the land of Ayurveda and the hub of self-medication. Each household has its own way of healing diseases like cold, fever, cough etc. Common ones include turmeric milk, cumin water, lemon extract, ginger tea, honey tea etc. Most of the Indians don’t visit the doctor when they have this illness too. They try to treat the disease all by themselves. With social media, people are sending each other remedies claiming that they can protect you from the corona. Also, sending things like inhaling hot steam can cure you.

Even sending fake forward messaging like camphor and cloves will heal you is now common. These are shared by educated people, politicians, ministers, college professors, influences etc. Immunity booster is now another misused term nowadays. All the ads which we see on TV on immunity booster tea, immunity booster tablets, herbal tea, etc. The government had also given permission for a homoeopathy preventive kit as well as a Coronil from Patanjali. All these have severely made the situation worse.

Another grave mistake is applying self-medication to English medicine. People are used to storing a lot of tablets and syrup at home. These include paracetamol, cough syrup, etc. Now people are consuming them without consulting anyone fearing that they may be infected with COVID. Even for mild symptoms, people are trying to consume painkillers and others.

These are creating an artificial shortage of several important drugs. The prominent example is of Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and Remdesivir which people had stocked up and are creating an artificial shortage. This shortage makes people who need them deprived of it the most. India has now called for an export ban on Remdesivir drug. After all these self medications, we will act as if nothing had happened, may not go for testing or will not stay in quarantine as you may have to go for work or attend a function. Most of us even fear to accept that we may have the virus. We might be anxious about what others will think, who will take care of the family, who will bear the expenses, etc.

Elections

Elections in India are always a big celebration. Irrespective of the narrative or perception of the election, all parties are neck to neck in the campaigning. The campaigns are conducted as massive rallies, door to door campaigns, roadshows etc. All these usually see the participation of a large number of people.

India saw a big election in the March-April period. Five states went to elections. Despite the pandemic, there was large participation in all the activities. COVID-19 protocol was up for a toss in most of the areas. Even at a time when IPL matches are going audience free, stadiums and grounds are filled for rallies that go on for hours. The election commission was nowhere in the picture.

Is there a direct link between elections and a surge in cases? It is hard to prove that but as far as we know all states who were part of the elections are seeing rising numbers, with several leaders and even CMs testing positive. This is not a joke but a reality. Although we can know that increase in the cases is not just restricted to poll-bound states. Maharastra, UP, Bihar, Gujarat didn’t have elections this month. So it is still hard for us to prove the premise. What we are seeing is a nationwide phenomenon and no doubt that elections have amplified it.

Voting is a constitutional right and no one can stop that but the people must realise that you are expected to be responsible when you are in public. You can’t put the lives of fellow countrymen in danger. The leaders who are seeking votes and doing rallies must be mature and behave well. You can’t go maskless and expect others to have a mask. You can’t bring a large number of people from across the state and beyond to crowd the seats. You must take care of the voters and their health as well.

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Religious congregations

All religions are in common in one way, ie. they encourage congregations. Irrespective of your faith or the religion you believe in, you need to accept that religious meetings and festivals have become super spreaders across the globe. This is not restricted to one or two religions but is true for all. The recent debate on whether Kumbh Mela should be cancelled or not led to these hotpot conversations, on and off social media. Kumbh Mela is a gathering of thousands of devotees on the bank of river Ganga in Haridwar for a month. It is believable to say that chances of this event becoming a super spreader for COVID was always there. Some had claimed that drinking Ganga river water will drive corona away, defining the conduct of Kumbh.

In other parts of the country, we can see other congregations, ie. Vishu and Thrissur pooram of Kerala, Ugadi in South India, Navrathri in North India, Ramzan across the country are big examples. Even though most of these are just restricted to a family gathering, these can become a potential reason for increasing numbers. We have seen during Onam and Ganesh Chaturthi, how damaging these were.

Youthful population

India has a vast majority of the young population. Perhaps it will be one of the youngest countries in the world. Especially the northern states which have a massive population are the main contributors to the millennial age group. It is an added advantage that we have a young population, which is also why we have one of the lowest fatality rates in the world.

Though the young population is a boon, they also can be a bane. As you know, youth form a large chunk of the workforce in the country. They are part of jobs, labour, entrepreneurs, big businesses, transport industry etc. working day and night. Since they are in the mainstream they are susceptible to the disease. Even though they may have fewer fatalities, high chances are that they can transmit it to another vulnerable person. Thus, they become carriers and not just victims.

Also, millennials are fond of partying, enjoying, meetups, eat-outs, trips etc. These also encourage gatherings and crowding. These are also loved by the virus.

School and College Exams

Schools and colleges had started to open up after lockdown only recently, say three to four months back. They were open for practicals and final exams. There were cases where students who wrote exams tested positive. Also given that exams require the gathering of a crowd in a closed space, the danger is also high. Exams are given that it's restrictive to only students that too varied from place to place, this one is just a minor reason. The govt. and universities have taken adequate steps to postpone all the pending and future exams for now.

Consequences

Reasons are the causes and causes lead to consequences. Sometimes, consequences are a continuation of the reasons and let’s look at how the situation is now in a loop and requires extreme caution from the government and the systems as such. Following are some notable consequences of the second wave of infections. Let us divide consequence into health-related and non-health related.

Health-related

The Collapse of Health Care Infrastructure

This is the primary cause of concern for the public and govt. at large. We can already see in the news, how hospitals are overflowing with patients, there is a lack of ICU beds, ventilators, and medical oxygen. With a sudden shock to the entire system, we can see that it has taken a big hit and requires some time to bounce back. Except for states in the south, the situation in major states is worse. More people will lose faith in the public healthcare system. They may not turn up for testing or may not approach a doctor etc. Even today a lot of people are staying away from hospitals thinking that, they will catch infection just because they are amidst the patients.

Shortage

The fear of shortage of medicines, vaccines, oxygen, ICU, beds, PPE kits, ventilators is a reality. Most of the hospitals are not admitting new patients. Those people having other diseases are not receiving adequate care. Only COVID-19 patients are getting attention.

People may now hurry up to get vaccinated and we can see many states closing their vaccination programmes too. The supply is not meeting its demand.

The government has started Oxygen express trains to counter the shortage of medical oxygen.

Flattening of the curve gets harder

With the overflowing medical system and a healthcare collapse on the edge, the pressure on the system is more. It will take more time to bring down the active cases and hospitalizations. The more time it takes to control the spread, the flattening of the curve becomes even harder.

Self-medications

With hospitals overflowing we can see that people will be forced to isolate themselves at home. They may not have to take the supervision of the doctor, This will lead to self-medication or even treating yourself without others knowing which may be dangerous and harmful. What choice does the common man have?

Sabotaging and hiding reality

With new challenges, state govts can now easily underplay the situation or even don’t give out legitimate numbers regarding testing, infections or even deaths. We have witnessed many deaths going unreported in several places mainly due to negligence and also because the system is not so proactive. We are also aware that the original number of cases is far higher than the official data we get.

Testing, tracing and isolating is the only way out.

Non-Health Related

Lockdown and Restrictions

Government has no other option but to restrict the interaction amongst the population. They will impose travel restrictions, night curfews, mandatory testing for cross border travellers, reducing event participation, stopping religious congregations etc. Some states are also planning on lockdowns in hotspot areas. Lockdowns can have other consequences too.

Loss of Jobs and Migrant crisis

We have seen pictures of daily wage labourers going back home as many states have initiated lockdown and they have lost jobs. This crisis is real. They don’t fear for their lives, their aim is to get back home and take care of families. Their lifestyle doesn’t include social distancing or respecting private space. While travelling, the chances of them getting infected and carrying it to rural areas are high. We had seen it happen in Bihar as well. Positive cases in rural areas were imported from other places by the migrants.

Uncertainty for Future

This period, at least for the coming month, we can see the days of early 2020 coming back. Everything shutting off again with a surprise. Businesses are uncertain, schools and colleges closed, exams cancelled and postponed, upcoming job and economic crisis. All of these can negatively affect us. Uncertainty is again going to start looming in our lives.

Fake News

Has always been a cause of concern throughout the period. Fake news is again on the rise as we are returning to the lockdown phase. Online activity of people is increasing. News of cases, deaths, medications, cure, the vaccine is still in the air. Fake news is also spreading on lockdown and travel restrictions as well. Some claim there will be a total lockdown, while others claiming vaccines are not going to help us at all. Most of them are sharing them unknowingly too. This fake news will surely affect our fight against the pandemic.

Economy

The challenge today remains, how to flatten the curve COVID-19 and not that of the economy. After a steep decline in the Indian economy in the last year, we are yet to see a good recovery. India cannot take up the burden of another lockdown. Even with night curfew and closure of non-essential business has reduced their income by 40%. People are losing their livelihoods.

The best solution is to keep the economy open as possible and also that a 2020 style lockdown must not be there. On the other hand WFH, online classes, online meetings, the online gathering can be entertained. Less gathering and less gathering is the only way out and not shutting down the entire country.

Summing Up

We need effective steps from all sides, both public and the administrators to make sure that everything is under control and the system stands intact. We must follow all the necessary rules and instructions. Let us stop whataboutery and stop blaming others for the same mistakes which we do. Why don’t we fact check the information which we get before forwarding it to others? Why don’t we stop our hesitation to get vaccinated especially when it is given free by almost all states?

Unlike last year, we know everything about what to do and what not to do. It is far easier to fight it now than it used to before. It will also be great if the government officials and ministers can brief us on the updates.

Read this article in summary and brief.

Key to Abbreviations-

Govt.- Government, WHO- World Health Organisation, WFH- Work From Home

Disclaimer- This article is not backed by scientific evidence of what exactly might have caused the second wave. Given that there are no studies on the second wave yet, the author has just curated this article based on local, national and international reporting on the issue. This article is not the final document proving anything. The article contains the author’s opinions and perceptions based on the given evidence. The article is written by the author based solely on facts. Although you are free to perform fact checks before you share the respective information with others. The article is solely meant for the purpose of understanding and comprehending the issue.

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