In a War Between Liberals and Conservatives, the Winner is Clear

Summary

The article discusses the potential outcome of a hypothetical civil war in America between liberals and conservatives, suggesting that despite short-term victories the right might achieve, the long-term trend favors liberal progress.

Abstract

The article presents a thought experiment on the outcome of a potential civil war in the United States, sparked by a significant uprising on the right following a hypothetical loss by Trump in the 2024 election. It acknowledges that the political right is more heavily armed and has a higher propensity for violence, supported by a proliferation of right-wing militias. The piece speculates on scenarios where the right could initially succeed, including potential support from within the police and military. However, the author argues that despite these advantages and the possibility of a fascist regime, history shows that progressive, liberal values inevitably prevail over time. The article cites historical progress in society, such as the empowerment of women, BIPOC, and LGBTQ+ communities, as evidence that conservatism may win battles but progressivism wins the war through societal evolution.

Opinions

The political right in America is more likely to own guns and is currently agitated against the left, with groups like the Boogaloo Boys preparing for a civil war.
The right appears better armed and more willing to commit acts of violence, with the rise of right-wing militias and conspiracy theories like QAnon.
Despite the potential for the right to cause significant violence and unrest, the author believes that liberal values will ultimately triumph in the long term.
The article posits that human society has historically moved towards more progressive ideals, with examples including the advancement of women's rights, civil rights, and LGBTQ+ rights.
The author suggests that any short-term gains by conservatives are temporary and will be reversed as society continues to progress.
The piece concludes that while the immediate future may be tumultuous, the overarching trend is toward a more progressive society.

It’s no contest.

There is a lot of talk about a second Civil War in America right now. This is especially true on the political right in this country, who are more likely to own multiple guns and are currently agitated against the American political left. The Boogaloo Boys were literally formed with this purpose in mind — the “boogaloo” is a code word for what they view as the impending civil war against the liberals.

Let’s do a thought experiment here. Let’s say that Trump loses the 2024 election and a significant uprising on the right breaks out into a shooting war. We are talking a proper civil war, but particularly the political left versus the political right — an entire breakdown in society that results in lots of death and destruction.

In a war between liberals and conservatives in America, who would win?

Let’s analyze this. As I said above, those on the political right are much more likely to both own guns and, by extension, own multiple guns. Plus, the number and proliferation of right-wing militias (such as the aforementioned Boogaloo Boys) makes it feel like some of those on the American right are just counting down the days until they can go shoot up the liberals.

The right appears, on the surface at least, to be more heavily armed and more willing to commit acts of violence against those they see as threatening their freedom and way of life. QAnon and other conspiracies have flourished in right-wing circles, and the number and variety of justifications for this kind of violence is staggering.

If the political right decided to revolt and start a shooting war, they’d probably kill a lot of people in the process. Let’s assume a worst-case scenario in which many in the police and military supported this uprising which resulted in the installation of a fascist hard-right dictator who would rule America with an iron fist. Yes, it’s unlikely, but it’s also plausible with the amount of tension between left and right in America right now.

The right could walk away with this kind of war if they had enough motivation. Recruiting military members and police officers could divide the ranks and potentially result in mass desertions to join the right-wing militias. Those left in the military might become disorganized with the loss of many within the command structure and face heavy losses from within and without.

Alternatively, Trump could get re-elected, finish his destruction of US democracy, and organize this revolt himself using the levers of power. Empowering the right-wing nutjobs while turning leftists and progressives into second-class citizens is not outside the realm of possibility, however horrible it sounds.

Even in a less-apocalyptic scenario, those on the right — both the heavily-armed individuals and the organized militias — could do a lot of damage and kill a lot of people before being put down. They could cause violence and unrest in America on a level not seen in quite a while, and the results would be devastating.

That said, in a war between liberals and conservatives, the winner is clear: the liberals take it by a mile.

Look back at history. Humanity has always moved toward a more progressive society. We started with societies built around men as gods. Then, men became the ambassadors of the gods, ordained to do their work. Men eventually became the ordained kings, ruling over their kingdoms and living at the peak of society. After a while, it became those with “proper breeding” were the ones fit to rule over the common man. Then, over time, we developed governments of the people, by the people, for the people — systems that were run by common men who ostensibly had the interests of the other common men at heart.

Women went from being mere prizes to be claimed by men to having voting rights and the ability to hold jobs outside the household. BIPOC folks went from literal slaves to second-class citizens to individuals with full rights like anyone else. Queer folx went from being punished by death to having the right to marry and exist in public spaces.

Even the backslides — fascist crackdowns and overthrows, hard rightward shifts in various governments, whatever — have been temporary. Time marches forward and brings with it progressive ideals and values, changing society for the better damn near every time. Those who espouse conservatism — a wish for some vague time in the past that was better somehow but never really existed in the first place — are either dragged forward or left behind.

Whatever battles conservatives might win — be them bloody coups or regressive policy changes — will ultimately be undone by the passage of time. Conservatism tends to win a lot of battles, but progressives have been winning the war for millennia.

That is of little help to us now, as we stand on a potential precipice of conflict. It’s easy to say that things will be better twenty or thirty years from now when many of us don’t have the luxury of getting to that point.

Still, it’s a bit calming to realize that, no matter what nonsense happens in modern America, progressive values will ultimately win the day.

Be well out there.