If you ran it again

Summary

Success in platforms like TikTok and other fields is attributed to a combination of talent and luck, as evidenced by the unpredictable nature of fame and the analogy to the randomness of matter distribution after the Big Bang.

Abstract

The article discusses the role of talent and luck in achieving exceptional success, noting that while skill is a significant factor, fortune plays a crucial part in wild success stories. It highlights the rapid growth of TikTok and the rise of its top influencers, such as Charli D'Amelio and Khaby Lame, as a real-time example of this phenomenon. The text draws a parallel between the unpredictable outcomes in content creation platforms and the random distribution of matter after the Big Bang, suggesting that both systems are influenced by inherent uncertainties. The author posits that despite the hard work and talent of individuals, the unpredictability of success means that rerunning the 'experiment' of life would likely yield different results each time.

Opinions

The author believes that while talent and hard work are important, they are not the sole determinants of success; luck is also a significant component.
There is an acknowledgment that the top influencers on platforms like TikTok are skilled at content creation, yet the author suggests that their extreme level of success is also due to fortunate circumstances.
The article implies that the unpredictable nature of success is similar to the randomness observed in quantum mechanics and the early universe, emphasizing the role of chance in shaping outcomes.
The author invites readers to consider that if the conditions for success were reset and 'run again,' the results would be different, underscoring the variability and unpredictability inherent in systems of achievement.
By comparing the rise of TikTok influencers to the formation of stars and planets, the author conveys a sense of wonder at the complexity and randomness of success, both in the cosmos and in human endeavors.

The cream rises to the top, sort of

Those who are intrinsically the best at what they do tend to have the best outcomes. They are some of the most followed creators on TikTok, Twitter, YouTube, or wherever. They are the Super Bowl winners, MVPs, and platinum-selling artists.

But there are plenty of great performers that don’t achieve this level of success. Wild success takes both ability and fortune. Luck is an inextricable component of the recipe.

Over the past couple of years, we’ve been gifted with an incredible opportunity to watch this happen in real-time. TikTok has grown bigger and faster than any other platform in history, and the top influencers (Charli D’Amelio with 132 million followers and Khaby Lame with 124 million are both tens of millions ahead of the pack) have ridden the rising tide to massive followings and instant celebrity status.

Both of these creators are certainly good at what they do. They are entertaining, captivating, charming, and really good at creating content that resonates. But, if we were to run the experiment again, start back at the top, I bet we wouldn’t end up with the outcome we see today. There’s too much noise, too much variability in the system, for the next roll of the dice to give the same result.

After the Big Bang, matter flew across the cosmos at an incomprehensible speed. Due to the unpredictable fuzziness of quantum mechanics, this great expanse of particles was, randomly, a little bit thicker here, a little bit thinner there. Add a few billion years, and these areas of random densities clump together into stars and planets — and eventually humans and iPhones.

If you run it again, the night sky would be a lot different, and we’d also (very, very) likely not be here to see it. That same fuzzy uncertainty is present on TikTok and in every other arena. Hard work helps, but we all need a little bit of luck too.

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