This 2020 election is a repudiation of BOTH Trump AND the Democratic Party.
Paul Krugman cannot understand the results of this election. That is because he is using a faulty lens. He is looking for an Either/Or interpretation of this election. There is none to be had.
This 2020 election is a repudiation of BOTH Trump AND the Democratic Party. The winner is the Republican Party, who increased their House seats and look set to hold on to the Senate. The reason is simple: if you are a conservative, you vote for the GOP senators and congress members candidates, not for GOP-lite ones.
The reason Biden received so many votes is that those additional votes are anti-Trump votes, not pro-Biden or pro-Democrats votes. Enough people understood that Trump is bad for this country and wanted him out. The only way to achieve that is to vote for Biden. This is the election that Hillary engineered and wanted, but backfired: A Democratic party with no vision and no solution but wins because the presidential opponent is an existential threat to the country. Sure, the people will vote against Trump. But they don’t have to vote Democratic Party down the line.
Elections are almost always about the economy: who gains and who loses, only during extraordinary circumstances, e.g., during wartime or a big national crisis that it is about something else.
For decades now, big-money special interests have dominated American politics and tilted the economic playing field in their favor. They pay little to no taxes and get the lion share of most government benefits. They exploited the working-class through depressed wages. Then they exploited the middle-class through mortgage fraud and exorbitant consumer credit interests. They are now even exploiting the upper-middle class through stock market fraud and manipulations. As a result, the only group who gains in this economy are the top 0.1%. 99% of Americans are sick and tired of this.
Normally, the 99% would all vote to make the 0.1% pay their fair share of taxes and limit their ability to bribe legislators through the lobby system. To prevent this, enter the false Conservative vs. Liberal narratives.
The basic false conservative narrative: You are doing badly because of big government tax and waste. You will do better if we cut taxes (mainly for the 0.1% — this bit is unsaid) and reduce government size, which will spur investments and create jobs for you.
The basic false liberal narrative: You are doing great because look the GDP is growing. You will do even better if we pass more laws regulating businesses (with massive loopholes for the 0.1% — this bit is unsaid), making sure you get the benefits you deserve from your jobs.
These two complimentary false narratives together divide the 99% into warring subgroups. Some would vote for tax cuts for the rich but would not get the job creation they were promised because the mega wealth prefers to invest in Wall Street, not Main Street. Some would vote for more regulations but would not get the security they were promised because small businesses would struggle with increased legislation. At the same time, giant corporations can use loopholes to escape.
When the pains grow too much, this illusion starts to fail. First, there was the Tea Party Movement. When the 01.% coopted them, there arose the Occupy Movement. It was clear that new narratives are needed to stem this tide of national awakening. The upgraded false narratives arrive just in time.
The upgraded false conservative narrative: You are doing poorly because of foreign workers taking your jobs and welfare cheats. Vote to close borders and take away social benefits, and you will do better.
The upgraded false liberal narrative: You are doing great. But they are racist, homophobes, anti-choice, xenophobes, and Russian colluders. Vote against them, and you will be safe again.
Now the country becomes more polarized because instead of abstract taxation policies, the fight is now over personal identities. Such fights feel more urgent, more immediate. And again, the nascent class consciousness is forgotten as the 99% are embroiled in the new false narratives.
Conservatives who embrace this new false narrative gain a sense of patriotism. Their opponents have changed from rational analysts of economic policies into rabid haters of America and sanctimonious libtard. Liberals who embrace this new false narrative gain a sense of moral superiority. Their opponents have likewise changed from rational analysts of taxation and economic policies into irrational racists and homophobes. They now no longer need to listen and understand each other. Each views the other as morons.
Given this understanding, we can now make sense of the election results that baffled Krugman.
Why did Florida voted to increase the minimum wage and for Trump? Floridians want the economy to work for them as well, and they want Trump to stick it to the liberals.
Liberal California voted for independent contractors because they are fed up with the badly thought-through AB5 legislation passed by sanctimonious one-size-fits-all liberals “trying to help” but instead ruined many independent contractors’ livelihoods.
Trump gained Latino and even Black votes because even minorities are sick of the sanctimonious neo-liberal woke culture. These minorities voters think that Trump is more likely to do something good for them out of his self-interest than the Democrats who only want to use identity politics to mask their conservative economic agenda. I think they are wrong to believe that, but I can understand why they would do so. Many people still remember how after winning a landslide by promising to make Wall Street accountable, Obama not only made sure they all got away scot-free, he did little to help the millions who lost their homes.
A clear lesson for the Democratic Party given the election result is this: You have reached the absolute limit of how many more GOP voters you can get. You are now more right-wing than the GOP of Eisenhower. Some might even say than Reagan. You have lost your way. Your base is sick, and tire and disillusioned. When you cannot make headways even when your dream election set up comes true, you had better do something different.
But I doubt the Dems will learn a lesson as obvious as this. The reason for it is also pretty obvious: they have virtually the same set of mega-donors as the GOP: Wall Street, Big Pharma, Big Ag, Oil & Gas, etc. Both parties are pushing the same economic policies to further enrich the billionaire class on the backs of the middle-class and working-class. As long as they want to take the money, they have no choice. And the money is too easy for them to want to do the hard work of campaign finance reform.
This is the reason why the Dems love Identity Politics. It is the only way they can appear different from the GOP. And minorities choosing to be duped again and again is the reason the Dems continue to do this. It works. Some minorities have had it. No doubt, many of those minorities who voted for Trump are also duped by him. But I suspect some of them do so because they are fed up with the Dems. The Dem's talking heads are starting to blame minorities for this. Some are saying things like Latinos voted for Trump because they are used to authoritarian government. White, wealthy liberals are now feeling more oppressed than poor minorities. Very soon, the whole identity politics ruse is going to collapse upon itself.
The real hard lesson is one that no one yet wants to learn: If you put identity solidarity above class solidarity, you will be caught in the false narratives and end up getting neither. If we can learn to see through this lie, we can unite as a nation and truly move forward. If not, we are letting the 0.1% and their political handmaidens divide and rule over us.
And this, not what the Dems or the GOP do, is the real tragedy.